Programming Note

No, I won't be asking you to select features of my wardrobe. Sham is replacing Moneyline in the CFB line guessing contest due to time constraints on the latter. I'll put the guesses up on Sunday night and grade them on Monday. Then everyone can laugh when Sham beats my error score by two points.

Wednesday 9/30

I'm surprised this came together the way it did this afternoon.

8p Louisiana Tech -5.5 +100 3x
8p Hawaii/LaTech u55 +107 3x

The total seemed like the right play all day. The side became a play because Hawaii has become more public throughout the afternoon, the line moved toward LaTech, and because it's a weeknight. If I really believe my idea about volume, then I should be pushing what I believe to be small edges on weeknight games. Anyway, good luck tonight.

Leans NFL Week 4/CFB Week 5

I'm not really impressed with either card this week. Tebow getting hurt and LSU getting the attention of the pundits for sucking really screws up my UF -12 play for next week, too.

Definite Plays
9p USU +24 @ BYU (Fri.)
12p Cuse +6.5 vs. USF
1230p Kentucky +16.5 vs. Bama
330p Duke +16.5 vs. VT
330p Sparty -2 vs. Mich

1p JAX +3 vs. TEN
1p KC +9 vs. NYG
1p CLE +5.5 vs. CIN

• Utah State is the gratuitous game I wouldn't play if it were on a Saturday.
• Sparty starting 1-3 and facing an overrated Michigan team seems like a good contrarian spot, especially if Forcier plays.
• The other three college games are pretty much slam dunks, I would think.
• Why are the Bengals giving 5.5 points in any situation?

Borderline Contrarian Plays
745p WVU -17.5 vs. Colo (Thu.)
8p Lville +6.5 vs. Pitt (Fri.)
12p Minny -2.5 vs. Wisky
330p ND -13.5 vs. UW
7p Stan -6 vs. UCLA
730p aTm -1 vs. Arky
730p Tenny -2 vs. Aub

405p NO -7 vs. NYJ
415p DEN +3 vs. OAK
415p STL +9.5 @ SF
820p PIT -6.5 vs. SD

• Louisville is much more likely to be the weeknight Big East representative on the card.
• The rest of those games are chalk that I'm not a fan of, but could be persuaded into playing if the trends are good this week.
• Do any of those NFL games look all that ugly to you?
• I don't care what the consensus sites say, I'm not fading TB and DET this week, with WAS and CHI. Does that make any sense?

Borderline Volume Plays
12p Marsh +2.5 vs. ECU
12p NW +7 @ Pur
12p UMd +13.5 vs. Clem
12p Buff +9.5 vs. CMU
4p UNLV +3.5 @ Nev
9p UTEP +16 vs. Hou

I really don't have much insight for these games other than they looked ugly. On the other hand, I'm not really looking to mix it up in CUSA or the WAC much anymore, either.

Week 5 Line Guesses

Error down marginally this week to 3.41 points off per game. I still had a few big misses. It should have been better, but I was out all day yesterday and scrambled to put it together before the lines came out at 6:45.

• I can't believe I overvalued Colorado by a touchdown.
• Duke has had basically no lines for me to make a reasonable guess.
• I'm consistently overvaluing Northwestern and undervaluing Purdue. Sooner or later (Week 12), I'll get it right.
• I'm not sure why I thought Ohio State was 11 points better than Michigan, though I'm a bit surprised that the margin between the Big Two is down to 4.
• Vandy was a stupid miss. LSU and Ole Miss are roughly the same team and Vandy was favored by 8.5 over Mississippi State when the game was played in Nashville.
• Arkansas was favored by 13.5 in the preseason against Texas A&M. Did the Aggies get good and I somehow missed it? Because I'm pretty sure Arkansas is who we thought they were.

Sunday 9/27

Lots of stuff to do today that doesn't involve watching football.

1p Jacksonville +3.5 -106 3x
1p Tampa Bay +6.5 -105 3x
1p St. Louis +6.5 -103 3x
4p Buffalo +5.5 104 3x

Good luck.

---------------------------

This is probably incredibly stupid, but I can't find a good contrarian reason to pass it, other than I suck at totals.

Adding the Colts, too. Because I don't like money.

820p IND/ARZ u48.5 -101 3x
820p Indianapolis +3 +102 3x

Hopefully, it's 27-20 at half so I can go to bed early.

Saturday 9/26

I still have a headache from the Nevada loss.

Earlies (12p-329p)
12p Southern Mississippi +13.5 +100 3x
12p South Florida +14 +104 3x

Just the standard contrarian fare at noon.

Middays (330p-659p)
330p Illinois +13.5 +100 3x
330p Oregon +5.5 +100 3x
330p NC State -1 +103 3x
330p Virginia Tech +2.5 +102 3x

This is everything I put in last night. Adding on is likely throughout the day. Good luck.

Passing Bama and Clemson at 330. The Crimson Tide are a strong pass, but I can't see myself paying for three extra points.

Nightcaps (7p-12a)
7p Bowling Green +16 +103 3x
9p Stanford -9 +100 3x
1015p USC -45 -101 3x

I can see arguments for passing Stanford, but these games that move 1-2 points against the public had value last year. I generally think those games still have value, if they don't move too much more, like Bama did today.

Leans NFL Week 3/CFB Week 4 Revisited

A lot of things moved during the week. Only one college game that looked definite Tuesday remains there tonight. That's usually not a good thing.

Definite Plays
12p USF +14 @ FSU
12p SoMiss +13 vs. KU
330p VT +3 vs. Miami
330p Ore +5.5 vs. Cal
330p NC St -1 vs. Pitt
330p Illy +13.5 vs. tOSU

1p JAX +3.5 @ HOU
1p TB +6.5 vs. NYG
1p STL +6.5 vs. GB
405p SEA +1 vs. CHI
405p BUF +6 vs. NO

I can't see any of the college plays being above a standard. I'm just hoping to escape them at .500. Tampa and the Rams looks like good candidates for above average plays on the pro side.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p NW +1 vs. Minny
12p Ind +20 vs. Mich
1220p Miss St +11 vs. LSU
330p Clem -2.5 vs. TCU
330p Bama -17.5 vs. Arky
8p Purdue +6.5 vs. ND
915p Hou -1 vs. TTech

1p WAS -6.5 vs. DET
415p CIN +3.5 vs. PIT

No chance I'm playing the Cats with that line movement. Mississippi State is borderline, but 3.5 points is a lot to give up. I'm surprised Purdue isn't more anti-pub. Bama and Houston still have a better than average chance of making the card.

There is no way I am legitimately fading Detroit.

Borderline Volume Plays
7p BGSU +16.5 vs. Boise
9p Stan -8 vs. Wash
1015p USC -45.5 vs. Wazzu

All three of these could end up on the card, as well, but I'd like to wait and see how tomorrow plays out.

Friday 9/25

Like last night, there was never a question whether I would bet this game, only how much.

9p Nevada +7 +106 8x

In this case, I can find no reason not to go all out with an ocho. Seeing that it is my first ocho, it's sure to lose. Sorry, Contrarianville.

I'll put a leans post up later. Good luck tonight.

Thursday 9/24

It was never a question whether I would bet on this game, only how much.

745p South Carolina +4 +102 5x

I opted to shy away from the personal max because of all the "Thursday Night Home Dog" chicken garbage floating around on the internet. It's still a solid play because there is no reason any square can give for taking it other than TNHD, but not enough to go for the ocho.

Good luck tonight.

The Real Top 25

In order to value these rankings, your poll has to based off who has the best chance to win the national title, not a power ranking where the strength a particular team is judged. Also, these are somewhat market driven, so some of the Coaches' poll will bleed into this, if bettors are rational. Regardless, here is where 5Dimes thinks the teams stand through Week 3.

1. Florida	+190
2. Texas	+500
3. Alabama	+550
4. Penn State	+1000
t-5. Miami Florida	+1200
t-5. Mississippi	+1200
7. Southern Cal	+1600
8. California	+2200
9. LSU	+2500
10. Cincinnati	+2800
11. Oklahoma	+3000
t-12. North Carolina	+4000
t-12. Michigan	+4000
t-14. Ohio State	+5000
t-14. Boise State	+5000
16. Kansas	+5500
17. Notre Dame	+6000
t-18. Iowa	+6600
t-18. Auburn	+6600
t-20. Clemson	+7500
t-20. South Florida	+7500
t-20. TCU	+7500
t-20. Wisconsin	+7500
t-20. Florida State	+7500
t-25. Pittsburgh	+8000
t-25. UCLA	+8000

Leans NFL Week 3/CFB Week 4

I have a feeling the first ocho of the season will be broken out early this week, and possibly twice. There are a couple obvious, must plays in both college and pro, and then a few more marginal games. Some of the more marginal games are going to make it onto my college card. Hopefully, I can show some restraint on the pro side.

Definite Plays
745p SoCar +3 vs. Ole Miss (Thu.)
9p Nevada +7.5 vs. Mizzou (Fri.)
12p NW -2.5 vs. Minny
6p NC State -1.5 vs. Pitt
915p Hou -2 vs. TTech

1p TB +6.5 vs. NYG
1p STL +6.5 vs. GB
405p BUF +5 vs. NO

• Both weeknight games scream big action.
• Northwestern's line doesn't make a ton of sense given both their lines against improved Syracuse, especially since the Cats lost to them.
• I think everyone knows Houston knocked off Oklahoma State, but I doubt Joe Q thought they would be favored against last year's cinderella.
• All three of the pro lines make me want to vomit. I mean, New Orleans has put up eleventy billion points in the last two weeks and they are only giving 5 in Buffalo?

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Illy +14 @ tOSU
12p Fresno +16.5 @ Cincy
1230p Miss St +12.5 vs. LSU
330p Bama -17 vs. Arky
630p Stan -7 vs. Wash
730p VT +3 vs. Miami
8p Pur +7 vs. ND

1p JAX +3.5 @ HOU
1p CLE +13 @ BAL
405p SEA +1 vs. CHI
415p CIN +4 vs. PIT
415p OAK -1 vs. DEN
820p ARZ -1 vs. IND

• Illy and Fresno are marginal. Those lines are bigger than I thought they would be.
• Miss St and Alabama represent an interesting dichotomy. Before the season, the books had Bama/Ole Miss/LSU about the same. Clearly, Bama has pulled far ahead in the books' eyes. I'm not sure the difference is as large for the public.
• I'll be shocked if I don't end up on Stanford. Washington is an obvious let down spot.
• So is Miami in Blacksburg.
• Purdue just got beat by a MAC school and now only getting a touchdown against America's Team?
• Cincy seems like the best bet out of those to make the pro card.
• What am I missing in JAX/HOU? That didn't seem like the uber-public game that the consensus numbers make it out to be.

Borderline Volume Plays
12p UMd +2.5 vs. Rutgers
12p BGSU +16.5 vs. Boise
2p SoMiss +14 @ Kansas
10p USC -45 vs. Wazzu

• Maryland sucks.
• I think fading Boise is going to at least end up as a lean every week.
• Southern Miss is actually a good CUSA outfit this year. That's like winning a silver medal in the Special Olympics.
• I think I might end up on Southern Cal on principle. They could only put up 13 last week in Seattle and now they are favored by 45. Awesome.

Monday 9/21

I was dangerously close to making this a 5x.

835p Miami +3 +103 3x

Then I remembered I suck at betting on the NFL.

CFB Week 4 Line Guesses

More improvement again this week, dropping the average error to 3.49. However, outliers are known to skew means and I had a huge one this week. If you take out the Western Kentucky/Navy miss, it dropped even further. Just a retarded miss on my part.

I was particularly happy that I nailed the ridiculous contrarian lines of the week, which also happen to be the weeknight games this week. More on that tomorrow with leans, I suppose.



Here are some of the big misses this week:

• Obviously, the preseason GOY lines should be taking less precedence now, but I am surprised that Bama is four points better in Vegas' eyes now.
• Wake and Purdue continue to baffle me. You'd think more data would help. You'd be wrong.
• Nebraska got better in the books' eyes over the last few weeks. They were only favored by 24 against FAU and 21 against Arky State, both whom are worse than Laffy Taffy. Note, Nebraska + 0.5 = LSU on a neutral field.
• I guess last week's big difference between the actual and GOY line wasn't all due to Cincy being more impressive. The Oregon St/Rizo line is off nine points from preseason.
• Rice sucks. I thought for sure that line would be higher, especially after being 32.5 dogs last week to Pokie State, though 18 was too big of a swing.
• The books are not impressed with the Huskies yet. Stanford is favored by the same amount as preseason. Seems like a good letdown spot this week.
• There's really not a lot to talk about with the Navy/W Ky line. I was huffing glue when I came up with that line.

I'm really looking forward to forecasting the Penn State/Illinois line next week. Nothing I love more than seeing an 'L' before it happens.

Sunday 9/20

There was nothing that went right yesterday. Which only means I'm looking at 0-3 today.

Plays
1p Houston +7 +102 3x
1p New York Jets +3.5 -115 3x
1p Philadelphia +2.5 +110 3x
415p Chicago +2.5 +107 3x

I dropped Detroit from my card because outside of Wagerline, the consensus numbers weren't all that spectacular. The Jets got added because outside of Wagerline, the consensus numbers were all in favor of the Pats, especially considering SIA never moved their line off 4.

Saturday 9/19

No live blog today, at least not here. I'll be running around all afternoon. I suppose everyone will just have to get their hate out on Twitter or RMMB.

Plays
12p Minnesota +13.5 -101 3x
12p Duke +24 -103 1.8ish-x
12p Duke +23.5 +102 1.2ish-x
330p Florida -29.5 -105 3x
330p Oregon -5 +104 3x
745p Arkansas -2.5 +103 3x
10p Kansas State +12 +100 3x

Angry Add-ons
645p Oregon State +1 +100 3x
10p Kansas State +11 +105 2x

That's way too much chalk.

Good luck today. Here's to 1-4.

Leans NFL Week 2/CFB Week 3 Revisited

Consensus numbers have changed quite a bit over the last three days for a few of the games I was looking at, particularly NEB/VT and FSU/BYU.

Definite Plays
12p Minny +13.5 vs. Cal
12p Duke +24 @ Kansas
330p Oregon -5 vs. Utah
330p Florida -29.5 vs. Tenny
745p Arky -2.5 vs. Georgia
1015p K-State +12 @ UCLA

1p HOU +6.5 @ TEN
1p DET +10 vs. MIN
415p CHI +1 vs. PIT
830p MIA +3 vs. IND (Mon.)

That's going to be my college card tomorrow, unless something changes. The most likely add would be ULM.

Even though I am being tighter with my plays this week, four games still made it on to the card. There is just not much to argue with the consensus numbers on any of those plays.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Clemson -7 vs. BC
12p ECU +7.5 @ UNC
330p Neb +5 @ VT
330p ND -10 vs. Mich St
645p Ore St +1 vs. Cincy
7p FSU +8 @ BYU

Oregon State would still be a play if not for Quizz Rodgers' status. Nothing else stands out in the NFL. It's one of those deals where if I played one more game, I'd end up on 5 more.

Borderline Volume Plays
330p MTSU +7 @ UMd
5p Baylor -10.5 vs. UConn
10p ULM +20 @ Ariz St

Sorry, Adam, but Maryland is flipping terrible.

Friday 9/18

I definitely thought I would get my price matched when I left for dinner. Instead, I just filled someone else's order.

9p Fresno State +7.5 -106 5x

Leans coming up momentarily.

Schedule Change

Since I am old and rarely go to bars on Friday nights anymore, I think I am going to revisit leans on Fridays. It makes sense to do it then because I can go right from updating leans to floating bets at Matchbook for Saturday, particularly since I end up doing work most weekend mornings.

Despite my long term Wreck position, I'm not against fading GT this season, but neither of these last two Thursday games have exactly been slam dunk contrarian spots.

I Am Confused

This game appeared to be the best look on the board, at least thinly sliced:

Arkansas -1.5 vs. Georgia

Wagerline: 37%/63%
SIA: 22%/78%
Carib: 35%/65%
Sportsbook: 59%/41%
5Dimes: 65%/35%

The second best lean, in my opinion, was this:

Fresno St +7 vs. Boise St

Wagerline: 31%/69%
SIA: 24%/76%
Carib: 26%/74%
Sportsbook: 9%/91%
5Dimes: 43%/57%

Is there something about 5Dimes' clientele I'm not understanding? Or am I misdiagnosing the games that should be public? The rest of the contrarian games don't seem that far off, at least once you grasp the normal spread of the percentages.

Leans NFL Week 2/CFB Week 3

Things are going to be loosened up a little bit in college football, but this week's card isn't overwhelming with contrarian spots. At the very least, I should break out a 5x play or two for this first time this season. On the pro side, I'm planning on actually taking my own advice and keeping things close to the vest.

Definite Plays
9p Fresno +7 vs. Boise (Fri.)
12p Duke +22.5 @ Kansas
330p Oregon -4 vs. Utah
330p Nebraska +4 @ VT
645p Ore St -1 vs. Cincy
745p Arky -1.5 vs. UGa
1015p K-State +12 @ UCLA

1p HOU +6.5 @ TEN
1p DET +9.5 vs. MIN
415p CHI +3 vs. PIT

The one spot that doesn't seem totally obvious here is Oregon State, but I'm basing this off the preseason line of 10 (along with consensus numbers). I can't believe that opinions of these two teams have changed so much in two months just because Cincy crushed Rutgers in Week 1 and Oregon State looked lackluster against UNLV last week.

I'm kind of repulsed by playing the Bears because I've never been blown away by Cutler like everyone else, but it's kind of hard to argue with the consensus numbers at the moment.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p EMU +24 @ Mich
12p Minny +14 vs. Cal
12p Clem -6.5 vs. BC
330p Wash +20.5 vs. USC
330p ND -10 vs. Mich St
5p Baylor -10.5 vs. UConn
7p FSU +7.5 @ BYU
745p WVU +7 @ Aub

1p NYJ +4 vs. NE
1p CIN +9.5 @ GB
1p PHL -1 vs. NO
1p CAR +6.5 @ ATL
1p JAX -3 vs. ARZ

There are arguments for any of these college leans here, but none of them are that strong, except maybe Minny. The thought of only getting 14 with the Gophers is nauseating, since they were one of those teams that seemed to luck their way to a winning season last year, and therefore due to return back to earth this year. Maybe that means it should be play.

None of the other NFL games really interest me all that much, except maybe fading the Falcons.

Borderline Volume Plays
12p No Ill +13 @ Purdue
330p Akron -4.5 vs. Indiana
330p MTSU +6 @ UMd
5p SMU -7 @ Wazzu
10p ULM +19 @ Ariz St

For whatever reason, these late night Pac 10 tilts have been receiving a lot of action, probably from drunk squares chasing. They are only suspicions at this point, but I'm starting to question if there isn't something to exploit there.

CFB Week 3 Line Guesses

Moneyline is still experiencing technical difficulties, so no contest yet. I did much better this week than last, with an average error 3.65 points. That's still not great, but I'm getting better. Same format as last week, games where I was off two points or less are in green (Good), six or more in orange (Gorilla Math).

The lines were taken from 5Dimes last night around 6:30p, except the Sun Belt nonsense, which I didn't grab until tonight.



There were a few games where I was way off:

• I clearly had no idea how what to make of Marshall. Maybe if I hadn't equated Missouri (-20 vs. BGSU, preseason unranked) and Virginia Tech (-19.5 vs. Marshall, #7 preseason) in my mind, I would have done better.
• Apparently garbage SEC teams are still almost a touchdown better on a neutral field than Steve Kragthorpe. This game would have been way better in 2006.
• I continue to give Tulsa no credit. Maybe I can lose a few more units fading them before I convince myself.
• The books are way more impressed with Cincy than they were in the preseason. That line was sitting at 10 at Sportsbook when I did the team previews.
• I am much higher on Northwestern than the books, though some of that probably comes down to the books liking Paulus a bit more. I didn't think that line would open shorter than Minny/Cuse.
• I flipped up on the ECU/UNC line. UNC is slightly better than WVU, who was favored by 5.5 against ECU. I was trying to factor in the the UNC/UConn line and just screwed up my HFA math, which also reared its head in the UConn/Baylor game.
• Really? Wazzu can't even be favored at home against SMU? Going to have take a bigger swing at the Cougs next week.

All of the other misses were MAC, CUSA, or Sun Belt fails. I can live with that. Moneyline is still going to thump me whenever the contest gets started.

Sunday 9/13

Time to give back all of yesterday's profits, which I'll get to enjoy losing from the office.

1p Cleveland +3.5 +104 3x
1p Tampa Bay +5.5 -106 3x
1p Detroit +13 +115 3x

I'm sure I'll be in a great mood when I get home after these games are over.

Contrarianville CFB Week 2 Live Chat

Saturday 9/12

I got a few of my plays matched yesterday, so that's why the juice might be slightly off what's available right now.

12p Connecticut +4 +105 3x
330p Tulane +18.5 -106 3x
330p Louisiana Tech +7.5 -104 3x
330p Houston +15.5 -107 3x
8p Ohio State +7 -105 3x
1030p San Jose State +13.5 +100 3x

I'd be playing more games if it were later in the season. I don't want to dig a deep hole early. If that means leaving some EV on the table, so be it.

Live blog up at 11:45.

Question for Readers

TheFiancee is going out of town tomorrow, which leaves me here with the four televisions.

Friday 9/11

Nothing sounds more exciting for a Friday night than taking 3.5 with a MAC team versus a BCS school.

9p Toledo +3.5 -105 3x

Is anyone else becoming totally disinterested in Streak besides me?

No Trips To The First State

Delaware's sports lottery rules have been set. The only way I can see it being worthwhile is if there is a lot of line movement between Thursday and Sunday and the half point parlays actually have value, but that would take a lot of line movement.

Leans NFL Week 1/CFB Week 2 Revisited

This post will ordinarily be completed on Thursdays, but since I spent 9 hours at airports yesterday for a three hour meeting, I didn't get it done.

Analysis of the leans are already elsewhere on the internet, so don't expect much in the way of commentary.

Definite Plays
9p Toledo +3.5 vs. Colo (Fri.)
12p UConn +3.5 vs. UNC
330p Hou +15.5 @ Okla St
330p LaTech +7 @ Navy
330p Tulane +17.5 vs. BYU
8p tOSU +6.5 vs. USC

1p CLE +4 vs. MIN

Not sure how I missed Houston last time through. LaTech made the leap because, at least according to Wagerline, there is a lot of action on that game.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
1221p Troy +36 @ Florida
130p Marshall +19 @ VT
330p UVa +11 vs. TCU
330p Wyo +31.5 vs. Texas
4p UCLA +10 @ Tenny
1015p Ore -12 vs. Purdue

1p DET +13 @ NO
1p TB +6 vs. DAL
415p SF +6 @ ARZ
1015p OAK +9 vs. SD (Mon.)

I'm not particularly excited about laying big numbers with crappy schools against big name teams. If it was later in the season, I would likely play these games. But right now, I think they are looking like passes.

UCLA bothers me because it moved a point. I don't know if one point makes a ton of difference in terms of what whales/sharps are thinking, but it did move onto a semi-key number.

All of the NFL games except Oakland are well supported by the new FO numbers. Sunday may be more of a bloodbath than I was expecting.

Borderline Volume Plays
730p UTEP +12.5 vs. Kansas
1030p SJSU +13.5 vs. Utah

These two stand the best chance of making it on the card tomorrow. I like both of these spots, but that's usually a bad thing.

Leans NFL Week 1/CFB Week 2

As with last week, I'm trying to keep everything small. In previous years, I think I would play about 10-12 games on the college side, but trying to keep to higher volume games is going to eliminate some plays.

Given that my selection criteria have changed, I'm going to change the way the leans posts are itemized. I'm sure you'll be able to figure it out.

Definite Plays
9p Toledo +3.5 vs. Colo (Fri.)
12p UConn +4 vs. UNC
330p Tulane +17.5 vs. BYU
8p tOSU +6.5 vs. USC

1p CLE +4 vs. MIN

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p CMU +14 @ Sparty
4p UCLA +9 @ Tenny
1015p Oregon -12 vs. Purdue

1p DET +13 @ NO
1p TB +6 vs. DAL
415p SF +6.5 @ ARZ
1015p OAK +9 vs. SD (Mon.)

Borderline Volume Plays
330p LaTech +7 @ Navy
330p UVa +10.5 vs. TCU
730p UTEP +11.5 vs. Kansas
8p N Mex +18 vs. Tulsa
1030p SJSU +14 vs. Utah
11p UNLV +7 vs. Ore St

I'm not sure it's possible for NFL games to end up in the Borderline Volume list. Those games are college games that would have been auto-plays last year, but make me question whether they will attract enough action that the Books feel the need to shade the line. The Borderline Contrarian list is kind of like last year's Moderate Leans.

CFB Week 2 Line Guesses

Moneyline and I are going to be doing something to similar to the contest he and Vegas Watch ran for college hoops last winter. With it being a holiday weekend invented solely for drinking, ML was a little behind, so we'll start the contest next week. However, I managed to put together my guesses before the lines were released yesterday.



Green indicates a good job, orange line differences would get me fired. I would obviously be getting fired.

My ongoing problems with Purdue and Minnesota in the BigTen screwed up the line with Oregon and the Cuse/PSU line.

Considering the preseason VT/UVa line was only 7.5 in Charlottesville, it's safe to say the loss to Bill and Mary affected the book's opinion of the Hoos significantly.

I horribly underestimated the difference between Auburn and Mississippi State. That was just an oversight on my part, since I had the Ole Miss lines for both teams.

I guess the books are more confident in Pitt than I am. Buffalo is a decent MAC team, which Pitt has shown the ability to lose to before.

The other big misses involved teams where there was zero guidance available, so I'm not terribly concerned with them. With the Week 1 and Week 2 data, I expect next week I'll drop my average miss down significantly from the 4.43 points I accrued this week.

Streakin 9/7

There is no reason to mess around with the CFB nonsense today, but I need to start paying attention to Streak again.

11a R. Soderling over. N. Davydenko
4p Rutgers vs. Cincinnati
8p First score is a touchdown
Current Streak: 1

I'll take Rutgers at 4, then wait to see what the 2H total is for FSU/Miami.

Instant Reactions - Week 1 (Updated)

Next Week: Tulane +23 3x
Next Week: Virginia +3 3x
September 19: Florida State +3.5 5x

-----------------------------------

After looking at my line guesses for next week, tOSU, Cuse, and Tulane look like sure things, with Oregon and Virginia on the "kinda looks gross" list.

Contrarianville Week 1 Live Chat

Saturday 9/5

Only two games for me today. I decided to pass Cal because a) it was questionable to begin with, b) I wanted to play it, and c) SIA showed Cal getting 60% of the action.

Plays
12p Syracuse +6.5 +111 3x
1030p Washington +17 +117 3x

I floated some excellent prices last night and got them matched. Hopefully that continues into the season.

I'll be running a live blog here starting at 1145a if anyone wants to join in the misery. Otherwise, good luck today.

Streak for the Cash
330p Oklahoma State vs. Georgia
8p Alabama 1H (win only) vs. Virginia Tech
Current Streak: 0

Alabama 1H later.

Friday 9/4

Everyone should thank me for grabbing this price rushing greatness on Tuesday afternoon, therefore guaranteeing that it would head back in our direction.

8p Tulane +13.5 +105 3x

Maybe tomorrow, everything will slow down enough that I can even play Streak again (I haven't looked at it since the first weekend of the LLWS).

Thursday 9/3

As a way to celebrate the beginning of football, I'm passing tonight's card. Good luck to everyone on the Aggies.

2009 CFB Preview: Florida

Moneyline already covered Florida, much better than me, I'm sure.

The best was saved for last. Florida is such a ridiculous favorite to go undefeated.



I've not been around long enough to know if any team has been favored by double digits in every regular season game. My guess would be 1994 Penn State or Nebraska, 1995 Nebraska, or maybe 2005 USC. No one else has been even close to being this good in a while, at least according to preseason expectations.





I seriously question if it had been worth it to get down on 2-1 in Vegas. When I was out there, I thought that price was ludicrous, but seeing these lines make me think otherwise. The total of 11 wins actually does not have any value, even though I thought for sure that the under would when I first looked at the totals back in June.

2009 CFB Preview: Alabama

Bama is essentially tied with LSU and Ole Miss at the top of the SEC West. Like Ole Miss, their SEC East competition is a breeze, missing both Florida and Georgia.





There is no value in the Alabama MNC future bet. At +145, u9.5 wins isn't horrible, but it's not great either to tie up your money for four months.

2009 CFB Preview: LSU

LSU is a prime example of how much a bad schedule can hurt you in win expectancy. They are essentially the same team as Ole Miss in Vegas' eyes, but have to play Florida and @ Georgia instead of Tennessee and South Carolina. Plus, they have to face their two best division rivals on the road instead of at home. The difference is astounding.





There might actually be value in under 8.5 wins at -130, since the median lines have them with 8 wins or less 48% of the time. There is no value in any of their MNC futures.

2009 CFB Preview: Ole Miss

I'm really getting sick of doing these. Now with less writing!



It's awfully square of me to challenge Vegas, but I just can't shake the feeling the worst case scenario is a lot more likely than the best case.





If you believe the median lines, there was probably some value in 30-1 at Harrah's. If Ole Miss actually made the BCSCG, they would probably be favored because they would have beat Florida in the SECCG and "SEC Speed." Over freaking nine wins has slight value with median lines, too. Moreso, if you buy the best case scenario.