Saturday 9/19

No live blog today, at least not here. I'll be running around all afternoon. I suppose everyone will just have to get their hate out on Twitter or RMMB.

Plays
12p Minnesota +13.5 -101 3x
12p Duke +24 -103 1.8ish-x
12p Duke +23.5 +102 1.2ish-x
330p Florida -29.5 -105 3x
330p Oregon -5 +104 3x
745p Arkansas -2.5 +103 3x
10p Kansas State +12 +100 3x

Angry Add-ons
645p Oregon State +1 +100 3x
10p Kansas State +11 +105 2x

That's way too much chalk.

Good luck today. Here's to 1-4.

Leans NFL Week 2/CFB Week 3 Revisited

Consensus numbers have changed quite a bit over the last three days for a few of the games I was looking at, particularly NEB/VT and FSU/BYU.

Definite Plays
12p Minny +13.5 vs. Cal
12p Duke +24 @ Kansas
330p Oregon -5 vs. Utah
330p Florida -29.5 vs. Tenny
745p Arky -2.5 vs. Georgia
1015p K-State +12 @ UCLA

1p HOU +6.5 @ TEN
1p DET +10 vs. MIN
415p CHI +1 vs. PIT
830p MIA +3 vs. IND (Mon.)

That's going to be my college card tomorrow, unless something changes. The most likely add would be ULM.

Even though I am being tighter with my plays this week, four games still made it on to the card. There is just not much to argue with the consensus numbers on any of those plays.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Clemson -7 vs. BC
12p ECU +7.5 @ UNC
330p Neb +5 @ VT
330p ND -10 vs. Mich St
645p Ore St +1 vs. Cincy
7p FSU +8 @ BYU

Oregon State would still be a play if not for Quizz Rodgers' status. Nothing else stands out in the NFL. It's one of those deals where if I played one more game, I'd end up on 5 more.

Borderline Volume Plays
330p MTSU +7 @ UMd
5p Baylor -10.5 vs. UConn
10p ULM +20 @ Ariz St

Sorry, Adam, but Maryland is flipping terrible.

Friday 9/18

I definitely thought I would get my price matched when I left for dinner. Instead, I just filled someone else's order.

9p Fresno State +7.5 -106 5x

Leans coming up momentarily.

Leans NFL Week 2/CFB Week 3

Things are going to be loosened up a little bit in college football, but this week's card isn't overwhelming with contrarian spots. At the very least, I should break out a 5x play or two for this first time this season. On the pro side, I'm planning on actually taking my own advice and keeping things close to the vest.

Definite Plays
9p Fresno +7 vs. Boise (Fri.)
12p Duke +22.5 @ Kansas
330p Oregon -4 vs. Utah
330p Nebraska +4 @ VT
645p Ore St -1 vs. Cincy
745p Arky -1.5 vs. UGa
1015p K-State +12 @ UCLA

1p HOU +6.5 @ TEN
1p DET +9.5 vs. MIN
415p CHI +3 vs. PIT

The one spot that doesn't seem totally obvious here is Oregon State, but I'm basing this off the preseason line of 10 (along with consensus numbers). I can't believe that opinions of these two teams have changed so much in two months just because Cincy crushed Rutgers in Week 1 and Oregon State looked lackluster against UNLV last week.

I'm kind of repulsed by playing the Bears because I've never been blown away by Cutler like everyone else, but it's kind of hard to argue with the consensus numbers at the moment.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p EMU +24 @ Mich
12p Minny +14 vs. Cal
12p Clem -6.5 vs. BC
330p Wash +20.5 vs. USC
330p ND -10 vs. Mich St
5p Baylor -10.5 vs. UConn
7p FSU +7.5 @ BYU
745p WVU +7 @ Aub

1p NYJ +4 vs. NE
1p CIN +9.5 @ GB
1p PHL -1 vs. NO
1p CAR +6.5 @ ATL
1p JAX -3 vs. ARZ

There are arguments for any of these college leans here, but none of them are that strong, except maybe Minny. The thought of only getting 14 with the Gophers is nauseating, since they were one of those teams that seemed to luck their way to a winning season last year, and therefore due to return back to earth this year. Maybe that means it should be play.

None of the other NFL games really interest me all that much, except maybe fading the Falcons.

Borderline Volume Plays
12p No Ill +13 @ Purdue
330p Akron -4.5 vs. Indiana
330p MTSU +6 @ UMd
5p SMU -7 @ Wazzu
10p ULM +19 @ Ariz St

For whatever reason, these late night Pac 10 tilts have been receiving a lot of action, probably from drunk squares chasing. They are only suspicions at this point, but I'm starting to question if there isn't something to exploit there.

CFB Week 3 Line Guesses

Moneyline is still experiencing technical difficulties, so no contest yet. I did much better this week than last, with an average error 3.65 points. That's still not great, but I'm getting better. Same format as last week, games where I was off two points or less are in green (Good), six or more in orange (Gorilla Math).

The lines were taken from 5Dimes last night around 6:30p, except the Sun Belt nonsense, which I didn't grab until tonight.



There were a few games where I was way off:

• I clearly had no idea how what to make of Marshall. Maybe if I hadn't equated Missouri (-20 vs. BGSU, preseason unranked) and Virginia Tech (-19.5 vs. Marshall, #7 preseason) in my mind, I would have done better.
• Apparently garbage SEC teams are still almost a touchdown better on a neutral field than Steve Kragthorpe. This game would have been way better in 2006.
• I continue to give Tulsa no credit. Maybe I can lose a few more units fading them before I convince myself.
• The books are way more impressed with Cincy than they were in the preseason. That line was sitting at 10 at Sportsbook when I did the team previews.
• I am much higher on Northwestern than the books, though some of that probably comes down to the books liking Paulus a bit more. I didn't think that line would open shorter than Minny/Cuse.
• I flipped up on the ECU/UNC line. UNC is slightly better than WVU, who was favored by 5.5 against ECU. I was trying to factor in the the UNC/UConn line and just screwed up my HFA math, which also reared its head in the UConn/Baylor game.
• Really? Wazzu can't even be favored at home against SMU? Going to have take a bigger swing at the Cougs next week.

All of the other misses were MAC, CUSA, or Sun Belt fails. I can live with that. Moneyline is still going to thump me whenever the contest gets started.