Leans NFL Week 4/CFB Week 5

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I'm not really impressed with either card this week. Tebow getting hurt and LSU getting the attention of the pundits for sucking really screws up my UF -12 play for next week, too.

Definite Plays
9p USU +24 @ BYU (Fri.)
12p Cuse +6.5 vs. USF
1230p Kentucky +16.5 vs. Bama
330p Duke +16.5 vs. VT
330p Sparty -2 vs. Mich

1p JAX +3 vs. TEN
1p KC +9 vs. NYG
1p CLE +5.5 vs. CIN

  • Utah State is the gratuitous game I wouldn't play if it were on a Saturday.
  • Sparty starting 1-3 and facing an overrated Michigan team seems like a good contrarian spot, especially if Forcier plays.
  • The other three college games are pretty much slam dunks, I would think.
  • Why are the Bengals giving 5.5 points in any situation?

Borderline Contrarian Plays
745p WVU -17.5 vs. Colo (Thu.)
8p Lville +6.5 vs. Pitt (Fri.)
12p Minny -2.5 vs. Wisky
330p ND -13.5 vs. UW
7p Stan -6 vs. UCLA
730p aTm -1 vs. Arky
730p Tenny -2 vs. Aub

405p NO -7 vs. NYJ
415p DEN +3 vs. OAK
415p STL +9.5 @ SF
820p PIT -6.5 vs. SD

  • Louisville is much more likely to be the weeknight Big East representative on the card.
  • The rest of those games are chalk that I'm not a fan of, but could be persuaded into playing if the trends are good this week.
  • Do any of those NFL games look all that ugly to you?
  • I don't care what the consensus sites say, I'm not fading TB and DET this week, with WAS and CHI. Does that make any sense?

Borderline Volume Plays
12p Marsh +2.5 vs. ECU
12p NW +7 @ Pur
12p UMd +13.5 vs. Clem
12p Buff +9.5 vs. CMU
4p UNLV +3.5 @ Nev
9p UTEP +16 vs. Hou

I really don't have much insight for these games other than they looked ugly. On the other hand, I'm not really looking to mix it up in CUSA or the WAC much anymore, either.

6 comments:

rexfordbuzzsaw said...

That Tampa-Washington game is a great big contrarian kick in the balls. There should be nothing uglier than laying over a TD with a team that just lost to Detroit, with a gazillion losses in a row. Unless, they are playing Tampa Bay, who is truly awful, with a back-up QB on the road. Apart they would probably be easy plays against anyone else, but put them together and it's a huge pass.

adam said...

Are you just going to include Maryland on a weekly basis to piss me off? Also, I'd buy into STL +9.5 being an alright look. The 49ers have been all paraded happy in the media recently. If it wasn't for BRETT FAVRE they'd be 3-0 with a massive lead in their division.

am19psu said...

Are you just going to include Maryland on a weekly basis to piss me off?

Like you said last week, they are going to be a contrarian look every week. That's what happens when your only win is over James Madison in OT. On the other hand, how often did we play Indiana in CBB last year?

Also, I'd buy into STL +9.5 being an alright look. The 49ers have been all paraded happy in the media recently.

I'm not necessarily against it, but 9.5 is fairly big number for the NFL.

Kunk said...

Even with PSU's loss to Iowa, it looks like I won't be avoiding the Juice this week.

Check out this treasure trove of square logic:
http://diminishingskills.blogspot.com/2009/09/college-football-picks-9302009.html

am19psu said...

My favorite part:

#15 Penn State (-6.5) over ILLINOIS
Predicted line: Penn State by 18.5
Wow. Danny Sheridan really lost respect for the Nittany Lions following their loss to Iowa. Apparently he missed Illinois's 30-0 flaming bag of turd at the Horseshoe last week.


The line is actually higher than the four points I'd projected over the summer (because Illinois sucks). Idiot.

Also square: this

LMQ said...

Quite a few of my friends are Charger fans so it's possible I'm overrating them, but PIT -6.5 does in fact seem pretty ugly to me. To put it in square terms, "They just lost to the Bengals and now they're favored by almost a touchdown against a good team?"

The other lines you mention in that section seem pretty reasonable though.