2009 CFB Preview: Florida

Moneyline already covered Florida, much better than me, I'm sure.

The best was saved for last. Florida is such a ridiculous favorite to go undefeated.



I've not been around long enough to know if any team has been favored by double digits in every regular season game. My guess would be 1994 Penn State or Nebraska, 1995 Nebraska, or maybe 2005 USC. No one else has been even close to being this good in a while, at least according to preseason expectations.





I seriously question if it had been worth it to get down on 2-1 in Vegas. When I was out there, I thought that price was ludicrous, but seeing these lines make me think otherwise. The total of 11 wins actually does not have any value, even though I thought for sure that the under would when I first looked at the totals back in June.

2009 CFB Preview: Alabama

Bama is essentially tied with LSU and Ole Miss at the top of the SEC West. Like Ole Miss, their SEC East competition is a breeze, missing both Florida and Georgia.





There is no value in the Alabama MNC future bet. At +145, u9.5 wins isn't horrible, but it's not great either to tie up your money for four months.

2009 CFB Preview: LSU

LSU is a prime example of how much a bad schedule can hurt you in win expectancy. They are essentially the same team as Ole Miss in Vegas' eyes, but have to play Florida and @ Georgia instead of Tennessee and South Carolina. Plus, they have to face their two best division rivals on the road instead of at home. The difference is astounding.





There might actually be value in under 8.5 wins at -130, since the median lines have them with 8 wins or less 48% of the time. There is no value in any of their MNC futures.

2009 CFB Preview: Ole Miss

I'm really getting sick of doing these. Now with less writing!



It's awfully square of me to challenge Vegas, but I just can't shake the feeling the worst case scenario is a lot more likely than the best case.





If you believe the median lines, there was probably some value in 30-1 at Harrah's. If Ole Miss actually made the BCSCG, they would probably be favored because they would have beat Florida in the SECCG and "SEC Speed." Over freaking nine wins has slight value with median lines, too. Moreso, if you buy the best case scenario.

2009 CFB Preview: SEC

The SEC was easily the hardest conference to judge. Florida is the clear favorite, but by how much is up for debate. Also, juggling the three decent teams in the West appears to be something the books haven't fully straightened out either.



As Moneyline showed, Florida is an overwhelming favorite, but if the lines are any indication, they should be. Also interesting is the strange ordering between Lucky's and Harrah's with SEC West trio. Harrah's looks like they hold my opinion of Ole Miss, while Lucky's apparently has a Jevan Snead hard on.



Florida and LSU posed the largest problems in this analysis. Florida is a 16 point favorite in the WLOCTP in Vegas, while online they are only 13.5 online. Meanwhile, LSU is a 3.5 point dog in road games at Alabama and Ole Miss at Sportsbook, but the Nugget has both games as 6 point lines. Those three teams are likely pretty close, so I can see arguments for any order at this point.



With above analysis, Alabama is probably a bit too high for their expected wins, especially since they have to play VoTech in Game 1. Otherwise, I see no problems with these.

I still think Ole Miss is overrated. They lose entirely too much on both sides of the ball, even though they finished strongly last year. I don't think they are going to fall back to 5-7 or something like that, but I'll be surprised if they match the 10-3 record Eli put up back in 2003, too.