Monday 9/21

I was dangerously close to making this a 5x.

835p Miami +3 +103 3x

Then I remembered I suck at betting on the NFL.

Sunday 9/20

There was nothing that went right yesterday. Which only means I'm looking at 0-3 today.

Plays
1p Houston +7 +102 3x
1p New York Jets +3.5 -115 3x
1p Philadelphia +2.5 +110 3x
415p Chicago +2.5 +107 3x

I dropped Detroit from my card because outside of Wagerline, the consensus numbers weren't all that spectacular. The Jets got added because outside of Wagerline, the consensus numbers were all in favor of the Pats, especially considering SIA never moved their line off 4.

Leans NFL Week 2/CFB Week 3 Revisited

Consensus numbers have changed quite a bit over the last three days for a few of the games I was looking at, particularly NEB/VT and FSU/BYU.

Definite Plays
12p Minny +13.5 vs. Cal
12p Duke +24 @ Kansas
330p Oregon -5 vs. Utah
330p Florida -29.5 vs. Tenny
745p Arky -2.5 vs. Georgia
1015p K-State +12 @ UCLA

1p HOU +6.5 @ TEN
1p DET +10 vs. MIN
415p CHI +1 vs. PIT
830p MIA +3 vs. IND (Mon.)

That's going to be my college card tomorrow, unless something changes. The most likely add would be ULM.

Even though I am being tighter with my plays this week, four games still made it on to the card. There is just not much to argue with the consensus numbers on any of those plays.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Clemson -7 vs. BC
12p ECU +7.5 @ UNC
330p Neb +5 @ VT
330p ND -10 vs. Mich St
645p Ore St +1 vs. Cincy
7p FSU +8 @ BYU

Oregon State would still be a play if not for Quizz Rodgers' status. Nothing else stands out in the NFL. It's one of those deals where if I played one more game, I'd end up on 5 more.

Borderline Volume Plays
330p MTSU +7 @ UMd
5p Baylor -10.5 vs. UConn
10p ULM +20 @ Ariz St

Sorry, Adam, but Maryland is flipping terrible.

Leans NFL Week 2/CFB Week 3

Things are going to be loosened up a little bit in college football, but this week's card isn't overwhelming with contrarian spots. At the very least, I should break out a 5x play or two for this first time this season. On the pro side, I'm planning on actually taking my own advice and keeping things close to the vest.

Definite Plays
9p Fresno +7 vs. Boise (Fri.)
12p Duke +22.5 @ Kansas
330p Oregon -4 vs. Utah
330p Nebraska +4 @ VT
645p Ore St -1 vs. Cincy
745p Arky -1.5 vs. UGa
1015p K-State +12 @ UCLA

1p HOU +6.5 @ TEN
1p DET +9.5 vs. MIN
415p CHI +3 vs. PIT

The one spot that doesn't seem totally obvious here is Oregon State, but I'm basing this off the preseason line of 10 (along with consensus numbers). I can't believe that opinions of these two teams have changed so much in two months just because Cincy crushed Rutgers in Week 1 and Oregon State looked lackluster against UNLV last week.

I'm kind of repulsed by playing the Bears because I've never been blown away by Cutler like everyone else, but it's kind of hard to argue with the consensus numbers at the moment.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p EMU +24 @ Mich
12p Minny +14 vs. Cal
12p Clem -6.5 vs. BC
330p Wash +20.5 vs. USC
330p ND -10 vs. Mich St
5p Baylor -10.5 vs. UConn
7p FSU +7.5 @ BYU
745p WVU +7 @ Aub

1p NYJ +4 vs. NE
1p CIN +9.5 @ GB
1p PHL -1 vs. NO
1p CAR +6.5 @ ATL
1p JAX -3 vs. ARZ

There are arguments for any of these college leans here, but none of them are that strong, except maybe Minny. The thought of only getting 14 with the Gophers is nauseating, since they were one of those teams that seemed to luck their way to a winning season last year, and therefore due to return back to earth this year. Maybe that means it should be play.

None of the other NFL games really interest me all that much, except maybe fading the Falcons.

Borderline Volume Plays
12p No Ill +13 @ Purdue
330p Akron -4.5 vs. Indiana
330p MTSU +6 @ UMd
5p SMU -7 @ Wazzu
10p ULM +19 @ Ariz St

For whatever reason, these late night Pac 10 tilts have been receiving a lot of action, probably from drunk squares chasing. They are only suspicions at this point, but I'm starting to question if there isn't something to exploit there.