Leans NFL Week 1/CFB Week 2

As with last week, I'm trying to keep everything small. In previous years, I think I would play about 10-12 games on the college side, but trying to keep to higher volume games is going to eliminate some plays.

Given that my selection criteria have changed, I'm going to change the way the leans posts are itemized. I'm sure you'll be able to figure it out.

Definite Plays
9p Toledo +3.5 vs. Colo (Fri.)
12p UConn +4 vs. UNC
330p Tulane +17.5 vs. BYU
8p tOSU +6.5 vs. USC

1p CLE +4 vs. MIN

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p CMU +14 @ Sparty
4p UCLA +9 @ Tenny
1015p Oregon -12 vs. Purdue

1p DET +13 @ NO
1p TB +6 vs. DAL
415p SF +6.5 @ ARZ
1015p OAK +9 vs. SD (Mon.)

Borderline Volume Plays
330p LaTech +7 @ Navy
330p UVa +10.5 vs. TCU
730p UTEP +11.5 vs. Kansas
8p N Mex +18 vs. Tulsa
1030p SJSU +14 vs. Utah
11p UNLV +7 vs. Ore St

I'm not sure it's possible for NFL games to end up in the Borderline Volume list. Those games are college games that would have been auto-plays last year, but make me question whether they will attract enough action that the Books feel the need to shade the line. The Borderline Contrarian list is kind of like last year's Moderate Leans.


Sham said...

What makes Toledo a definite?

am19psu said...

It's Friday night and the books should have to shade these lines a bit more (I think) because of the increase in public money that flows in. At least that's my current working hypothesis. I'll probably end up on Oakland Monday night for the same reason, in spite of the line movement.

And, if you think Clemson is shaded, the same logic applies there. I just don't see those two teams as all that different and the Tigers didn't make the first pass through my card.

am19psu said...

Or Muffalo Monday night, as well, if you think that line is off. My point is: I'm willing to take a chance on perceived smaller edges on stand-alone games because of the increased lopsided public action the book will take (and therefore adjust the line accordingly).