Leans NFL Week 2/CFB Week 3

Things are going to be loosened up a little bit in college football, but this week's card isn't overwhelming with contrarian spots. At the very least, I should break out a 5x play or two for this first time this season. On the pro side, I'm planning on actually taking my own advice and keeping things close to the vest.

Definite Plays
9p Fresno +7 vs. Boise (Fri.)
12p Duke +22.5 @ Kansas
330p Oregon -4 vs. Utah
330p Nebraska +4 @ VT
645p Ore St -1 vs. Cincy
745p Arky -1.5 vs. UGa
1015p K-State +12 @ UCLA

1p HOU +6.5 @ TEN
1p DET +9.5 vs. MIN
415p CHI +3 vs. PIT

The one spot that doesn't seem totally obvious here is Oregon State, but I'm basing this off the preseason line of 10 (along with consensus numbers). I can't believe that opinions of these two teams have changed so much in two months just because Cincy crushed Rutgers in Week 1 and Oregon State looked lackluster against UNLV last week.

I'm kind of repulsed by playing the Bears because I've never been blown away by Cutler like everyone else, but it's kind of hard to argue with the consensus numbers at the moment.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p EMU +24 @ Mich
12p Minny +14 vs. Cal
12p Clem -6.5 vs. BC
330p Wash +20.5 vs. USC
330p ND -10 vs. Mich St
5p Baylor -10.5 vs. UConn
7p FSU +7.5 @ BYU
745p WVU +7 @ Aub

1p NYJ +4 vs. NE
1p CIN +9.5 @ GB
1p PHL -1 vs. NO
1p CAR +6.5 @ ATL
1p JAX -3 vs. ARZ

There are arguments for any of these college leans here, but none of them are that strong, except maybe Minny. The thought of only getting 14 with the Gophers is nauseating, since they were one of those teams that seemed to luck their way to a winning season last year, and therefore due to return back to earth this year. Maybe that means it should be play.

None of the other NFL games really interest me all that much, except maybe fading the Falcons.

Borderline Volume Plays
12p No Ill +13 @ Purdue
330p Akron -4.5 vs. Indiana
330p MTSU +6 @ UMd
5p SMU -7 @ Wazzu
10p ULM +19 @ Ariz St

For whatever reason, these late night Pac 10 tilts have been receiving a lot of action, probably from drunk squares chasing. They are only suspicions at this point, but I'm starting to question if there isn't something to exploit there.


Anonymous said...

definitely people chasing.. just like the last race at the track on a saturday

Vegas Watch said...

No Dolphins?

am19psu said...

I was actually cheaply waiting to see what you and others posted about that game. Backing the Dolphins isn't something I'm excited about, considering their somewhat lucky playoff run last year. Of course, consensus numbers are wildly in favor of playing the Dolphins, so, I wanted to see other people's opinions on the game.

Vegas Watch said...

I don't think people are sold on last year being anything more than a fluke. Last week didn't help, Colts are obviously a bigger name, and I don't know that line looks pretty short to me.

am19psu said...

It absolutely looks short to me as well, even considering the Colts had a close game last week. Are the books looking for Indy to take a step back?

I'm sure I'm overthinking this.