Contrarianville CFB Week 2 Live Chat

Saturday 9/12

I got a few of my plays matched yesterday, so that's why the juice might be slightly off what's available right now.

12p Connecticut +4 +105 3x
330p Tulane +18.5 -106 3x
330p Louisiana Tech +7.5 -104 3x
330p Houston +15.5 -107 3x
8p Ohio State +7 -105 3x
1030p San Jose State +13.5 +100 3x

I'd be playing more games if it were later in the season. I don't want to dig a deep hole early. If that means leaving some EV on the table, so be it.

Live blog up at 11:45.

Friday 9/11

Nothing sounds more exciting for a Friday night than taking 3.5 with a MAC team versus a BCS school.

9p Toledo +3.5 -105 3x

Is anyone else becoming totally disinterested in Streak besides me?

Leans NFL Week 1/CFB Week 2 Revisited

This post will ordinarily be completed on Thursdays, but since I spent 9 hours at airports yesterday for a three hour meeting, I didn't get it done.

Analysis of the leans are already elsewhere on the internet, so don't expect much in the way of commentary.

Definite Plays
9p Toledo +3.5 vs. Colo (Fri.)
12p UConn +3.5 vs. UNC
330p Hou +15.5 @ Okla St
330p LaTech +7 @ Navy
330p Tulane +17.5 vs. BYU
8p tOSU +6.5 vs. USC

1p CLE +4 vs. MIN

Not sure how I missed Houston last time through. LaTech made the leap because, at least according to Wagerline, there is a lot of action on that game.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
1221p Troy +36 @ Florida
130p Marshall +19 @ VT
330p UVa +11 vs. TCU
330p Wyo +31.5 vs. Texas
4p UCLA +10 @ Tenny
1015p Ore -12 vs. Purdue

1p DET +13 @ NO
1p TB +6 vs. DAL
415p SF +6 @ ARZ
1015p OAK +9 vs. SD (Mon.)

I'm not particularly excited about laying big numbers with crappy schools against big name teams. If it was later in the season, I would likely play these games. But right now, I think they are looking like passes.

UCLA bothers me because it moved a point. I don't know if one point makes a ton of difference in terms of what whales/sharps are thinking, but it did move onto a semi-key number.

All of the NFL games except Oakland are well supported by the new FO numbers. Sunday may be more of a bloodbath than I was expecting.

Borderline Volume Plays
730p UTEP +12.5 vs. Kansas
1030p SJSU +13.5 vs. Utah

These two stand the best chance of making it on the card tomorrow. I like both of these spots, but that's usually a bad thing.

Leans NFL Week 1/CFB Week 2

As with last week, I'm trying to keep everything small. In previous years, I think I would play about 10-12 games on the college side, but trying to keep to higher volume games is going to eliminate some plays.

Given that my selection criteria have changed, I'm going to change the way the leans posts are itemized. I'm sure you'll be able to figure it out.

Definite Plays
9p Toledo +3.5 vs. Colo (Fri.)
12p UConn +4 vs. UNC
330p Tulane +17.5 vs. BYU
8p tOSU +6.5 vs. USC

1p CLE +4 vs. MIN

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p CMU +14 @ Sparty
4p UCLA +9 @ Tenny
1015p Oregon -12 vs. Purdue

1p DET +13 @ NO
1p TB +6 vs. DAL
415p SF +6.5 @ ARZ
1015p OAK +9 vs. SD (Mon.)

Borderline Volume Plays
330p LaTech +7 @ Navy
330p UVa +10.5 vs. TCU
730p UTEP +11.5 vs. Kansas
8p N Mex +18 vs. Tulsa
1030p SJSU +14 vs. Utah
11p UNLV +7 vs. Ore St

I'm not sure it's possible for NFL games to end up in the Borderline Volume list. Those games are college games that would have been auto-plays last year, but make me question whether they will attract enough action that the Books feel the need to shade the line. The Borderline Contrarian list is kind of like last year's Moderate Leans.