2009 CFB Preview: Florida

Moneyline already covered Florida, much better than me, I'm sure.

The best was saved for last. Florida is such a ridiculous favorite to go undefeated.

I've not been around long enough to know if any team has been favored by double digits in every regular season game. My guess would be 1994 Penn State or Nebraska, 1995 Nebraska, or maybe 2005 USC. No one else has been even close to being this good in a while, at least according to preseason expectations.

I seriously question if it had been worth it to get down on 2-1 in Vegas. When I was out there, I thought that price was ludicrous, but seeing these lines make me think otherwise. The total of 11 wins actually does not have any value, even though I thought for sure that the under would when I first looked at the totals back in June.


adam said...

1994 Penn State: no (USC; were actually 1 point dogs to Michigan in October)
1994 Nebraska: no (Colorado among one other?)
1995 Nebraska: no (-7 @ Colorado)
2005 USC: yes up until Texas (in fact their lowest spread was -12 @ ND)

I'm not sure how Florida will stack up against the other top dogs (maybe you do), but it looks like -7.5 in the BCSCG against the second best team in the country is the mark to beat.

am19psu said...

Nice work. Can you look up 2001 and 2002 Miami, too? I can't imagine any of the Free Shoes teams from the late 90s would count because of playing Florida at the end of the season.

Using Miami +10.5 at home against OU, that would put them +14.5 on a neutral field. That would mean FSU would be a 15 point dog against OU on a neutral field. Which would make Florida a two point favorite to OU, right? That would make UF a one point favorite to Texas. They'd probably be about a three point favorite to USC, as it stands now.

Can't wait for tomorrow.

am19psu said...

Also, Penn State was a dog in 94 against USC? I was at that game. Complete destruction ensued.

adam said...

2001 Miami was -7 @ FSU
2002 Miami played Florida in the first game of the season.

adam said...

No, they were only like 7.5 point favorites or something. The dog status referred to Michigan.

am19psu said...

Ah, ok. Penn State should be a dog to Michigan every year just based on principle.

Wes said...

Adam, where are you getting those spreads?

Am19psu, thanks for all the work on the preview stuff. Good luck to PSU and gambling degeneracy this year.

adam said...

Available here. It's total veracity is in question, but it'll have to do for historical data because I don't know where else to go.

adam said...

It's/its.. jeeeeeeez IT HAS been a long week for me.