Revisiting 2009 Cincinnati

When I previewed the Bearcats in the preseason, I had them around the 4th or 5th best team in the Big East. Clearly, they are much better than that. With last night's defeat of South Florida, the prospect of an undefeated Cincinnati team became much larger. I said on Twitter last night that I didn't think they would be less than a touchdown favorite the rest of the year except to Pitt. After consulting with Moneyline, here are the Bearcats' new expected spreads.



Pitt is the only team with better than a one in three shot of beating Cincy. I can't wait for ESPN touting the Wannstache if this scenario plays out.





The odds of an undefeated Big East team playing for the national title have gone up to around 21%. The media is going to have a field day with this.

CFB Week 2 Line Guesses

Moneyline and I are going to be doing something to similar to the contest he and Vegas Watch ran for college hoops last winter. With it being a holiday weekend invented solely for drinking, ML was a little behind, so we'll start the contest next week. However, I managed to put together my guesses before the lines were released yesterday.



Green indicates a good job, orange line differences would get me fired. I would obviously be getting fired.

My ongoing problems with Purdue and Minnesota in the BigTen screwed up the line with Oregon and the Cuse/PSU line.

Considering the preseason VT/UVa line was only 7.5 in Charlottesville, it's safe to say the loss to Bill and Mary affected the book's opinion of the Hoos significantly.

I horribly underestimated the difference between Auburn and Mississippi State. That was just an oversight on my part, since I had the Ole Miss lines for both teams.

I guess the books are more confident in Pitt than I am. Buffalo is a decent MAC team, which Pitt has shown the ability to lose to before.

The other big misses involved teams where there was zero guidance available, so I'm not terribly concerned with them. With the Week 1 and Week 2 data, I expect next week I'll drop my average miss down significantly from the 4.43 points I accrued this week.

Instant Reactions - Week 1 (Updated)

Next Week: Tulane +23 3x
Next Week: Virginia +3 3x
September 19: Florida State +3.5 5x

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After looking at my line guesses for next week, tOSU, Cuse, and Tulane look like sure things, with Oregon and Virginia on the "kinda looks gross" list.

Contrarianville Week 1 Live Chat

Thursday 9/3

As a way to celebrate the beginning of football, I'm passing tonight's card. Good luck to everyone on the Aggies.

2009 CFB Preview: Florida

Moneyline already covered Florida, much better than me, I'm sure.

The best was saved for last. Florida is such a ridiculous favorite to go undefeated.



I've not been around long enough to know if any team has been favored by double digits in every regular season game. My guess would be 1994 Penn State or Nebraska, 1995 Nebraska, or maybe 2005 USC. No one else has been even close to being this good in a while, at least according to preseason expectations.





I seriously question if it had been worth it to get down on 2-1 in Vegas. When I was out there, I thought that price was ludicrous, but seeing these lines make me think otherwise. The total of 11 wins actually does not have any value, even though I thought for sure that the under would when I first looked at the totals back in June.

2009 CFB Preview: Alabama

Bama is essentially tied with LSU and Ole Miss at the top of the SEC West. Like Ole Miss, their SEC East competition is a breeze, missing both Florida and Georgia.





There is no value in the Alabama MNC future bet. At +145, u9.5 wins isn't horrible, but it's not great either to tie up your money for four months.

2009 CFB Preview: LSU

LSU is a prime example of how much a bad schedule can hurt you in win expectancy. They are essentially the same team as Ole Miss in Vegas' eyes, but have to play Florida and @ Georgia instead of Tennessee and South Carolina. Plus, they have to face their two best division rivals on the road instead of at home. The difference is astounding.





There might actually be value in under 8.5 wins at -130, since the median lines have them with 8 wins or less 48% of the time. There is no value in any of their MNC futures.

2009 CFB Preview: Ole Miss

I'm really getting sick of doing these. Now with less writing!



It's awfully square of me to challenge Vegas, but I just can't shake the feeling the worst case scenario is a lot more likely than the best case.





If you believe the median lines, there was probably some value in 30-1 at Harrah's. If Ole Miss actually made the BCSCG, they would probably be favored because they would have beat Florida in the SECCG and "SEC Speed." Over freaking nine wins has slight value with median lines, too. Moreso, if you buy the best case scenario.

The Plan for 2009-10

Caution: very crude approximations ahead.

My long term winning percentage is around 53.5% in college football, pro football, and college basketball. Using Matchbook over the last two years, I am averaging about -105 on the juice on each bet. Using these approximations, it works out to a Kelly bet of about 3%, since I make many bets simultaneously (I used 10 for the approximation). I recognize that I should be adjusting each bet based on the juice I am getting, but I doubt I that I have exactly a 53.5% chance of winning each bet.

With the above extremely crude approximations, it doesn't make any sense to bet "full Kelly." In fact, I am pretty sure that my efficiency would be way down if I bet the approximate "full Kelly" on each game. So, my plan is to make each unit 0.5% of my Tuesday bankroll. Normal bets will be 3x (or 1.5%) plays and big bets will be 5x (2.5%) plays. Every once in a while, I will break out a personal max when I think the edge is large for 8x (4%), but those will be exceedingly rare. These will all be flat bet in the same manner as baseball was, even though I'm not playing bases ever again.

These will go into effect starting Thursday or Friday, depending if I play Boise or not. Speaking of which, below are my leans for CFB Week 1.

CFB Week 1 Leans
1015p Boise State -4 (Thu.)
8p Tulane +13.5 (Fri.)
12p Syracuse +6.5
10p California -21.5
1030p Washington +17
330p Memphis +16.5 (Sun.)

If this list seems much smaller than year's past, it is, and it is exhaustive. Overall, I am committed to being a bit tighter this year, and even moreso in Weeks 1-3, since I always get my ass handed to me at the beginning of the season, which I don't think is a function of bad luck and small sample size. I'm also putting more emphasis on playing games that are higher volume. That means mainly games featuring BCS teams and off-Saturday games. It seems to me that games that have more volume will have a bigger need to balance square vs. sharp action (when a contrarian angle exists), and therefore, more value on the anti-public side.

2009 CFB Preview: Texas

The Longhorns are the other obvious national title contender out of the Big XII. They have nobody on their non-conference schedule, unlike Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.



Texas really has a two game season. Beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and they are in all likelihood going to Pasadena. I suppose the one thing they could be worried about is a situation similar to last year, where OU and the Pokes go 7-1 along with Texas. OU will probably be higher in the BCS standing because of BYU and Miami.





The Horns have a decent median probability of going undefeated, but 6-1 isn't representing value. There is no value in their win total of ten either.

2009 CFB Preview: Oklahoma

In my opinion, Oklahoma is the second best team in the Big XII. The books are on board as well, with Texas looking like a one point favorite at the Cotton Bowl in October.



The Sooners have a decent non-conference on paper, with BYU, Tulsa, and Miami, but they will be heavy favorites in every game. I'm hoping to actually be on the Sooners against Tulsa. Otherwise, the Sooners' regular season comes down to the Cotton Bowl, most likely.





As you would normally expect with one of the best teams in the country, there is no value here, unless you are really high on the Sooners. The best Vegas line was 7-1 while I was out there. There is nothing there for the total of ten, either.

2009 CFB Preview: Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are going to be loaded this year on offense. Their biggest obstacle is going to be heading to Norman in the last game of the year. I would not be surprised if that game featured two undefeated teams, like 2006 tOSU vs. Michigan... and Oklahoma would be a touchdown favorite.




Otherwise, Oklahoma State will be a slight dog against Texas and favored in every other game. In Week 1, the Pokes get to face Georgia, which I had hoped would be a contrarian spot, but it seems like the cat is out of the bag.





I think Oklahoma State takes the record for biggest dropoff between 10-2 and 12-0, primarily due the game against the Sooners. For their chances of winning the MNC, 50-1 isn't going to cut it, unless a fortune teller on the boardwalk tells you Sam Bradford is going to tear his ACL. Over nine wins is close to having value with the median lines. If you think the Pokes will play above their Vegas median, it definitely has value.

2009 CFB Preview: Nebraska

I didn't run the numbers for Kansas, but judging by the lines, Nebraska is the Vegas favorite for being the Big XII North sacrifice to OU/UT in Jerry's New House.



I think it's also safe to assume they would be the favorite to win the Sun Belt. Nebraska's only probable losses are OU and VT, with a winnable game in Lawrence, which is the only other game they will be a dog. Subjectively, Nebraska has one of the lower standard deviations of teams I've run through, with only 1.4 wins separating E(Worst) and E(Best).





In Vegas, 80-1 was the best price you could get on the Huskers, so it doesn't look like much value there, unless you are really high on them. There is probably a little bit of value in the under for their win total of 8.5, but I doubt it is worth tying money up for the next four months.

2009 CFB Preview: Penn State

Moneyline already did Penn State, better than me, I'm sure.

Penn State is the other flawed favorite for the Big Ten title. They have to replace three starters on the offensive line, all three wide receivers and the entire secondary. Again, the Nittany Lions benefit from a generally down Big Ten, but have potential road blocks in Illinois and Michigan State. Penn State joins USC and Rutgers, so far, as teams that should be favored in every game.



Penn State does benefit from a weak non-conference schedule. They should be favored by three touchdowns or more in every game. Interestingly, Penn State has a better chance than tOSU to go undefeated, but should be installed as the second favorite to win the Big Ten. That's what happens when you don't play USC.





If you are high on the Nittany Lions, then the 40-1 available at Cal Neva a month ago was an absolute steal. Right now, you can get them at 30-1 offshore, which still isn't a bad deal from the median lines. Like most teams with an integer win total, there is no value in Penn State at nine.

2009 CFB Preview: Ohio State

Moneyline already did Ohio State, better than me, I'm sure.

The fact that Ohio State is highly regarded this year is more proof that the Big Ten is down. They lost over half their starters and are relying on a guy with the throwing motion of a shotputter to account for 75% of their offense and yet are regarded as a slightly better option than Penn State, which has problems of their own.



Don't get me wrong, tOSU should still be good, but they are not the juggernaut of years past.





The median lines show no value on the 9.5 win total and there is zero chance I would lay 14-1 on the Bucks to win the MNC this year. Still, they'll likely finish first or second in the Big Ten, so it should be a decent year for Buckeye fans.

2009 CFB Preview: Iowa

Iowa has been, along with Michigan State, a consensus pick in the second tier of the conference. They probably overachieved a little bit last year. They didn't really dominate anybody, and played down to competition against Pitt. Still, they did beat then undefeated Penn State and won the Outback Bowl against South Carolina.



Iowa schedule sets up unfavorably, having to go to Happy Valley and Columbus. Road games against Wisconsin and Michigan State don't help matters, either.





Illinois is probably a smidge better than Iowa, based on the lines set so far. On top of that, Illinois plays better non-conference games. There is no value in either Iowa's futures or their integer win total of eight.

2009 CFB Preview: Illinois

Everytime I think about Illinois, all I hear in my head is Brent Musburger saying, "Here come the ill-IIIIIIII-ni!" Which has nothing to do with gambling.

Illinois is a darkhorse pick to win the Big Ten this year, and with good reason. I really should have picked them over Michigan State as my Big Ten future. They'll be favored in every game this year, except Penn State and Ohio State and their chances of winning at home against Penn State are near 100%.



After running the numbers, I like Illinois a lot more. I have a feeling I'll be on them at least against tOSU and would be on the Illini against PSU, if I wagered on PSU games.





It's been a month (already?!) since I was out in Vegas, but if 200-1 was still available at Boyd's, I'd pick it up in a second. That has value at the median line, which has been rare so far in this series.

If you believe my lines and have money at 5Dimes the over has value. It is set at 7.5 -140. There is some time value of money concerns, but this is one of the best bets this series has uncovered so far.