Leans NFL Week 2/CFB Week 3 Revisited

Consensus numbers have changed quite a bit over the last three days for a few of the games I was looking at, particularly NEB/VT and FSU/BYU.

Definite Plays
12p Minny +13.5 vs. Cal
12p Duke +24 @ Kansas
330p Oregon -5 vs. Utah
330p Florida -29.5 vs. Tenny
745p Arky -2.5 vs. Georgia
1015p K-State +12 @ UCLA

1p HOU +6.5 @ TEN
1p DET +10 vs. MIN
415p CHI +1 vs. PIT
830p MIA +3 vs. IND (Mon.)

That's going to be my college card tomorrow, unless something changes. The most likely add would be ULM.

Even though I am being tighter with my plays this week, four games still made it on to the card. There is just not much to argue with the consensus numbers on any of those plays.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Clemson -7 vs. BC
12p ECU +7.5 @ UNC
330p Neb +5 @ VT
330p ND -10 vs. Mich St
645p Ore St +1 vs. Cincy
7p FSU +8 @ BYU

Oregon State would still be a play if not for Quizz Rodgers' status. Nothing else stands out in the NFL. It's one of those deals where if I played one more game, I'd end up on 5 more.

Borderline Volume Plays
330p MTSU +7 @ UMd
5p Baylor -10.5 vs. UConn
10p ULM +20 @ Ariz St

Sorry, Adam, but Maryland is flipping terrible.


Sham said...

What makes Florida a definite? Once again, just asking for insight.

adam said...

Hey, we might be flipping terrible, but at least I've got the heart to support them by drinking outside for six hours before the game. I'll probably have much more fun at the tailgate than at the game, though... deep down I'm sure that we're going to lose tomorrow; our defense plays about as well against a spread offense as Penn State's is bound to @ Illinois (oh, burn).

am19psu said...

I'd had Florida pegged in this spot since the summer and was happy to see the way things evolved during the week. I liked the way the line moved from open and consensus site data was pretty good for heavy chalk (except 5Dimes).

am19psu said...

our defense plays about as well against a spread offense as Penn State's is bound to @ Illinois

It's hard to call that a burn when I said it myself back in July. I wouldn't be shocked to see PSU drop 3 of their 4 road games this year.

adam said...

Well... I wouldn't be shocked if Maryland only won two more games this year, if that makes you feel any better. What a debacle.