Saturday 9/26

I still have a headache from the Nevada loss.

Earlies (12p-329p)
12p Southern Mississippi +13.5 +100 3x
12p South Florida +14 +104 3x

Just the standard contrarian fare at noon.

Middays (330p-659p)
330p Illinois +13.5 +100 3x
330p Oregon +5.5 +100 3x
330p NC State -1 +103 3x
330p Virginia Tech +2.5 +102 3x

This is everything I put in last night. Adding on is likely throughout the day. Good luck.

Passing Bama and Clemson at 330. The Crimson Tide are a strong pass, but I can't see myself paying for three extra points.

Nightcaps (7p-12a)
7p Bowling Green +16 +103 3x
9p Stanford -9 +100 3x
1015p USC -45 -101 3x

I can see arguments for passing Stanford, but these games that move 1-2 points against the public had value last year. I generally think those games still have value, if they don't move too much more, like Bama did today.

Leans NFL Week 3/CFB Week 4 Revisited

A lot of things moved during the week. Only one college game that looked definite Tuesday remains there tonight. That's usually not a good thing.

Definite Plays
12p USF +14 @ FSU
12p SoMiss +13 vs. KU
330p VT +3 vs. Miami
330p Ore +5.5 vs. Cal
330p NC St -1 vs. Pitt
330p Illy +13.5 vs. tOSU

1p JAX +3.5 @ HOU
1p TB +6.5 vs. NYG
1p STL +6.5 vs. GB
405p SEA +1 vs. CHI
405p BUF +6 vs. NO

I can't see any of the college plays being above a standard. I'm just hoping to escape them at .500. Tampa and the Rams looks like good candidates for above average plays on the pro side.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p NW +1 vs. Minny
12p Ind +20 vs. Mich
1220p Miss St +11 vs. LSU
330p Clem -2.5 vs. TCU
330p Bama -17.5 vs. Arky
8p Purdue +6.5 vs. ND
915p Hou -1 vs. TTech

1p WAS -6.5 vs. DET
415p CIN +3.5 vs. PIT

No chance I'm playing the Cats with that line movement. Mississippi State is borderline, but 3.5 points is a lot to give up. I'm surprised Purdue isn't more anti-pub. Bama and Houston still have a better than average chance of making the card.

There is no way I am legitimately fading Detroit.

Borderline Volume Plays
7p BGSU +16.5 vs. Boise
9p Stan -8 vs. Wash
1015p USC -45.5 vs. Wazzu

All three of these could end up on the card, as well, but I'd like to wait and see how tomorrow plays out.

Friday 9/25

Like last night, there was never a question whether I would bet this game, only how much.

9p Nevada +7 +106 8x

In this case, I can find no reason not to go all out with an ocho. Seeing that it is my first ocho, it's sure to lose. Sorry, Contrarianville.

I'll put a leans post up later. Good luck tonight.

Thursday 9/24

It was never a question whether I would bet on this game, only how much.

745p South Carolina +4 +102 5x

I opted to shy away from the personal max because of all the "Thursday Night Home Dog" chicken garbage floating around on the internet. It's still a solid play because there is no reason any square can give for taking it other than TNHD, but not enough to go for the ocho.

Good luck tonight.

The Real Top 25

In order to value these rankings, your poll has to based off who has the best chance to win the national title, not a power ranking where the strength a particular team is judged. Also, these are somewhat market driven, so some of the Coaches' poll will bleed into this, if bettors are rational. Regardless, here is where 5Dimes thinks the teams stand through Week 3.

1. Florida	+190
2. Texas	+500
3. Alabama	+550
4. Penn State	+1000
t-5. Miami Florida	+1200
t-5. Mississippi	+1200
7. Southern Cal	+1600
8. California	+2200
9. LSU	+2500
10. Cincinnati	+2800
11. Oklahoma	+3000
t-12. North Carolina	+4000
t-12. Michigan	+4000
t-14. Ohio State	+5000
t-14. Boise State	+5000
16. Kansas	+5500
17. Notre Dame	+6000
t-18. Iowa	+6600
t-18. Auburn	+6600
t-20. Clemson	+7500
t-20. South Florida	+7500
t-20. TCU	+7500
t-20. Wisconsin	+7500
t-20. Florida State	+7500
t-25. Pittsburgh	+8000
t-25. UCLA	+8000

Leans NFL Week 3/CFB Week 4

I have a feeling the first ocho of the season will be broken out early this week, and possibly twice. There are a couple obvious, must plays in both college and pro, and then a few more marginal games. Some of the more marginal games are going to make it onto my college card. Hopefully, I can show some restraint on the pro side.

Definite Plays
745p SoCar +3 vs. Ole Miss (Thu.)
9p Nevada +7.5 vs. Mizzou (Fri.)
12p NW -2.5 vs. Minny
6p NC State -1.5 vs. Pitt
915p Hou -2 vs. TTech

1p TB +6.5 vs. NYG
1p STL +6.5 vs. GB
405p BUF +5 vs. NO

• Both weeknight games scream big action.
• Northwestern's line doesn't make a ton of sense given both their lines against improved Syracuse, especially since the Cats lost to them.
• I think everyone knows Houston knocked off Oklahoma State, but I doubt Joe Q thought they would be favored against last year's cinderella.
• All three of the pro lines make me want to vomit. I mean, New Orleans has put up eleventy billion points in the last two weeks and they are only giving 5 in Buffalo?

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Illy +14 @ tOSU
12p Fresno +16.5 @ Cincy
1230p Miss St +12.5 vs. LSU
330p Bama -17 vs. Arky
630p Stan -7 vs. Wash
730p VT +3 vs. Miami
8p Pur +7 vs. ND

1p JAX +3.5 @ HOU
1p CLE +13 @ BAL
405p SEA +1 vs. CHI
415p CIN +4 vs. PIT
415p OAK -1 vs. DEN
820p ARZ -1 vs. IND

• Illy and Fresno are marginal. Those lines are bigger than I thought they would be.
• Miss St and Alabama represent an interesting dichotomy. Before the season, the books had Bama/Ole Miss/LSU about the same. Clearly, Bama has pulled far ahead in the books' eyes. I'm not sure the difference is as large for the public.
• I'll be shocked if I don't end up on Stanford. Washington is an obvious let down spot.
• So is Miami in Blacksburg.
• Purdue just got beat by a MAC school and now only getting a touchdown against America's Team?
• Cincy seems like the best bet out of those to make the pro card.
• What am I missing in JAX/HOU? That didn't seem like the uber-public game that the consensus numbers make it out to be.

Borderline Volume Plays
12p UMd +2.5 vs. Rutgers
12p BGSU +16.5 vs. Boise
2p SoMiss +14 @ Kansas
10p USC -45 vs. Wazzu

• Maryland sucks.
• I think fading Boise is going to at least end up as a lean every week.
• Southern Miss is actually a good CUSA outfit this year. That's like winning a silver medal in the Special Olympics.
• I think I might end up on Southern Cal on principle. They could only put up 13 last week in Seattle and now they are favored by 45. Awesome.

CFB Week 4 Line Guesses

More improvement again this week, dropping the average error to 3.49. However, outliers are known to skew means and I had a huge one this week. If you take out the Western Kentucky/Navy miss, it dropped even further. Just a retarded miss on my part.

I was particularly happy that I nailed the ridiculous contrarian lines of the week, which also happen to be the weeknight games this week. More on that tomorrow with leans, I suppose.



Here are some of the big misses this week:

• Obviously, the preseason GOY lines should be taking less precedence now, but I am surprised that Bama is four points better in Vegas' eyes now.
• Wake and Purdue continue to baffle me. You'd think more data would help. You'd be wrong.
• Nebraska got better in the books' eyes over the last few weeks. They were only favored by 24 against FAU and 21 against Arky State, both whom are worse than Laffy Taffy. Note, Nebraska + 0.5 = LSU on a neutral field.
• I guess last week's big difference between the actual and GOY line wasn't all due to Cincy being more impressive. The Oregon St/Rizo line is off nine points from preseason.
• Rice sucks. I thought for sure that line would be higher, especially after being 32.5 dogs last week to Pokie State, though 18 was too big of a swing.
• The books are not impressed with the Huskies yet. Stanford is favored by the same amount as preseason. Seems like a good letdown spot this week.
• There's really not a lot to talk about with the Navy/W Ky line. I was huffing glue when I came up with that line.

I'm really looking forward to forecasting the Penn State/Illinois line next week. Nothing I love more than seeing an 'L' before it happens.