CFB Week 3 Line Guesses

Moneyline is still experiencing technical difficulties, so no contest yet. I did much better this week than last, with an average error 3.65 points. That's still not great, but I'm getting better. Same format as last week, games where I was off two points or less are in green (Good), six or more in orange (Gorilla Math).

The lines were taken from 5Dimes last night around 6:30p, except the Sun Belt nonsense, which I didn't grab until tonight.

There were a few games where I was way off:

  • I clearly had no idea how what to make of Marshall. Maybe if I hadn't equated Missouri (-20 vs. BGSU, preseason unranked) and Virginia Tech (-19.5 vs. Marshall, #7 preseason) in my mind, I would have done better.
  • Apparently garbage SEC teams are still almost a touchdown better on a neutral field than Steve Kragthorpe. This game would have been way better in 2006.
  • I continue to give Tulsa no credit. Maybe I can lose a few more units fading them before I convince myself.
  • The books are way more impressed with Cincy than they were in the preseason. That line was sitting at 10 at Sportsbook when I did the team previews.
  • I am much higher on Northwestern than the books, though some of that probably comes down to the books liking Paulus a bit more. I didn't think that line would open shorter than Minny/Cuse.
  • I flipped up on the ECU/UNC line. UNC is slightly better than WVU, who was favored by 5.5 against ECU. I was trying to factor in the the UNC/UConn line and just screwed up my HFA math, which also reared its head in the UConn/Baylor game.
  • Really? Wazzu can't even be favored at home against SMU? Going to have take a bigger swing at the Cougs next week.

All of the other misses were MAC, CUSA, or Sun Belt fails. I can live with that. Moneyline is still going to thump me whenever the contest gets started.