CFB Week 4 Line Guesses

More improvement again this week, dropping the average error to 3.49. However, outliers are known to skew means and I had a huge one this week. If you take out the Western Kentucky/Navy miss, it dropped even further. Just a retarded miss on my part.

I was particularly happy that I nailed the ridiculous contrarian lines of the week, which also happen to be the weeknight games this week. More on that tomorrow with leans, I suppose.

Here are some of the big misses this week:

  • Obviously, the preseason GOY lines should be taking less precedence now, but I am surprised that Bama is four points better in Vegas' eyes now.
  • Wake and Purdue continue to baffle me. You'd think more data would help. You'd be wrong.
  • Nebraska got better in the books' eyes over the last few weeks. They were only favored by 24 against FAU and 21 against Arky State, both whom are worse than Laffy Taffy. Note, Nebraska + 0.5 = LSU on a neutral field.
  • I guess last week's big difference between the actual and GOY line wasn't all due to Cincy being more impressive. The Oregon St/Rizo line is off nine points from preseason.
  • Rice sucks. I thought for sure that line would be higher, especially after being 32.5 dogs last week to Pokie State, though 18 was too big of a swing.
  • The books are not impressed with the Huskies yet. Stanford is favored by the same amount as preseason. Seems like a good letdown spot this week.
  • There's really not a lot to talk about with the Navy/W Ky line. I was huffing glue when I came up with that line.
I'm really looking forward to forecasting the Penn State/Illinois line next week. Nothing I love more than seeing an 'L' before it happens.


Jonny said...

"Nothing I love more than seeing an 'L' before it happens."

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