tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-200985242024-03-12T21:09:54.949-04:00You guessed it, Frank StalloneNew Season, Same ResultsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger730125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-33020464891155276012010-04-30T18:30:00.001-04:002010-04-30T18:32:17.691-04:00Live Betting Live Chat 4/30<iframe src="http://www.coveritlive.com/index2.php/option=com_altcaster/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=3dd1fa3722/height=550/width=470" scrolling="no" height="550px" width="470px" frameBorder ="0" allowTransparency="true" ><a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=3dd1fa3722" >4/30 Live Bets</a></iframe>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-19636722164460904402010-03-13T00:15:00.000-05:002010-03-17T19:44:38.868-04:00Frank Calls It A DayI've been contemplating ending the blog experience for a while now. Some time during last football season, I decided I wanted this to be a place where I could put down all of my crazy ideas and play with numbers to see if I could get better at sports gambling (note: that worked well). I wanted it to be more than a list of my picks and leans. As it stands now, thanks to more responsibility at my real job, I just don't have enough time or energy to do any of the R&D stuff that made me want to have a blog.<br /><br />I'm not done gambling. I'll still be over in <a href="http://www.themoneylinejournal.com/forum/">Contrarianville</a> all the time and I'll maintain my record there, plus there is still my <a href="http://twitter.com/am19psu">twitter</a> account where I can make unfunny comments about games. If for whatever ungodly reason you actually want to follow my picks, I have my own thread pinned to the top of the Picks Forum. I'll continue posting leans in the relevant threads. <a href="http://shamne.blogspot.com/">Sham</a> will host the line guesses for the rest of football season. I'm going to continue doing everything I've always done in terms of preparing for each day/week of gambling. It's just not going to be done here.<br /><br />There is some decent research in some of the old posts, so I'm not going to ditch the archive. Good luck wagering. I'll be around.<br /><br />-AdamUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-28875138550087191782010-03-12T09:53:00.000-05:002010-03-12T09:54:26.068-05:002010 Conference Tourney Friday Live Blog<iframe src="http://www.coveritlive.com/index2.php/option=com_altcaster/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=3771c85569/height=550/width=470" scrolling="no" height="550px" width="470px" frameBorder ="0" allowTransparency="true" ><a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=3771c85569" >2010 CT Friday</a></iframe>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-54709886976385678992010-03-11T07:56:00.000-05:002010-03-11T07:59:14.515-05:002010 Conference Tourney Thursday Live Blog<iframe src="http://www.coveritlive.com/index2.php/option=com_altcaster/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=30596a3eab/height=550/width=470" scrolling="no" height="550px" width="470px" frameBorder ="0" allowTransparency="true" ><a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=30596a3eab" >2010 CT Thursday</a></iframe>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-18634103335570771302010-01-07T20:25:00.001-05:002010-01-07T20:25:48.244-05:00MNC Live Blog<iframe src="http://www.coveritlive.com/index2.php/option=com_altcaster/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=8250d3a6bf/height=550/width=470" scrolling="no" height="550px" width="470px" frameBorder ="0" allowTransparency="true" ><a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php?option=com_mobile&task=viewaltcast&altcast_code=8250d3a6bf" >Cville BCS MNC Chat</a></iframe>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-49998665741119915792009-11-09T21:15:00.001-05:002009-11-10T05:22:28.906-05:00CFB Week 11 Line Guess ResultsSham wins, but we both did worse this week, 2.23 vs. 3.67.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTEFQ8JPu0nuSfXNRsHBE97H7VAlUliaeIZK7XIgmKT90S7l4mU62BljjxsX2GVgg_X505ZhH6dGI3T1Eo9rWxWndixK6RrKT79OVmydGIlcWNziaExkdsMTDNzLxNru1_yqpg/s1600-h/Week11LG-F.PNG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 206px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTEFQ8JPu0nuSfXNRsHBE97H7VAlUliaeIZK7XIgmKT90S7l4mU62BljjxsX2GVgg_X505ZhH6dGI3T1Eo9rWxWndixK6RrKT79OVmydGIlcWNziaExkdsMTDNzLxNru1_yqpg/s400/Week11LG-F.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5402279157215810274" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sham:</span> Let's start with this weekday's all too plentiful MAC crapfests. I have to say I'm legitimately surprised by the splits in favor of Buffalo on Tuesday night. Toledo and their horrid defense will get a look on Wednesday. The cream of the MAC Conference (Fake Miami and Crakron) will get looks later in the week as well. Thoughts about any potential plays during the week?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">am19psu:</span> Wow, I totally forgot about this. My real life needs to calm down.<br /><br />My first thought about the weeknight games are: does the MAC really think they are getting that much more exposure by scheduling all of these weeknight games?<br /><br />I guess Fake Miami and their 1-9 record will get my attention the most this week. I'm not really excited about any of them to be totally honest. I was looking at the volume of these games at Wagerline the last few weeks and it is well below average.<br /><br />Both Big East games look unplayable as well.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S:</span> The almost automatic Houston opponent lean is led this week by the UCF Knights. This time instead of being steamed down, Houston has actually gone up, I'm trying not to look too much into that.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> Just what my life needs, more George O'Leary. That was one of those lines that I completely screwed up this week. Looking into it a bit further, the Knights really aren't bad for a CUSA team. They were in the game in both their league losses and looked semi-respectable against Texas for a half.<br /><br />Going to another conference we rarely bet on, I was surprised by the Troy/Arky line. My guess was absurdly wrong, but I didn't realize any team in the Sun Belt was three touchdowns better than winless Eastern Michigan. I really need to pay better attention to the small conferences. Think the Hogs will attract enough action for a play?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S:</span> I'm not sure how much action this game will attract but on the surface I like Troy in this one. It fits perfectly with square circular reasoning as Florida beat Troy 56-6 at home and Arkansas played Florida tough on the road before falling 23-20. I'm sure you'll see squares cite these two scores as justification for a play on the Razorbacks who by their estimates is about 47 points better than Troy, 14.5 should be no problem.<br /><br />Let's focus on a team that is actually good, TCU. Will Utah +17 entice the casual bettor?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> Yeah, Sun Belt team only getting two TDs on the road against an ESS-EE-SEE school ought to do the trick, let alone the transitive property you mentioned.<br /><br />It's not often you see #4 -17.5 vs. #16 in the MWC. TCU is pretty clearly the side if there is one, but the way the Frogs have been rolling teams the last four weeks, I'm not sure Utes will be all that public.<br /><br />This card generally sucks. Nothing else really jumps out at me except Nebraska only -4 against Kansas. Reesing has looked like garbage the last few weeks, but it's not like Nebraska's offense has been lighting it up either. Can you bring yourself to fade the Huskers?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S:</span> I've done it before this year with Arky St (didn't work out so well). I was surprised to see the line this low and I'm legitimately worried about a letdown after the defense single-handedly defeated OU. It's a situation where I would normally be all over KU but I'll take a wait-and-see approach.<br /><br />Any chance Penn St sneaks onto your card with so few options this week?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> I doubt it. I'm already disappointed in this team. I don't need to be a drag on everyone in State College if they don't cover the three TDs.<br /><br />I just looked over at Wagerline. Wow, there is a lot of ACC nonsense this week, isn't there?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S:</span> That's for sure. Duke looks almost automatic against the Ramblin' Wreck. The continuous fading of Real Miami will most likely continue as well. NC St and Virginia will get a looks as well.<br /><br />I was surprised by USC opening up as a double-digit fave against Stanford. You had other thoughts, care to elaborate?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> I couldn't do math in my head after work yesterday? I added an extra four points of HFA to that line. Was it really that surprising though? Stanford closed at +6.5 at home against Oregon, flip that around to +13.5-14.5 on the road and Oregon was a three point dog to USC at home. Obviously some adjustment was necessary, since both teams are closer to USC in current power rankings, but it was clearly a double digit game to me. I just wish Stanford would have lost to Oregon. I don't think we're going to get much of a chance to play it, especially after Barkley's stinker on Saturday. It looks like you adjusted it too far and I didn't go quite far enough.<br /><br />Last one, and I'll leave the commentary to you: how much of a dog does Iowa open as if Stanzi healthy?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S:</span> I believe a healthy Stanzi puts Iowa at +10.5. Wow, just looked up this line and it has moved from the opener of 13.5 to 17.<br /><br />OU is on my radar, but that line is trending upwards and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go past 21. Wake was a lean before Ponder went down with his season-ending injury. Notre Dame appears playable against a Top 10 Pitt team (didn't feel right typing that). ISU intrigues me as well, for whatever reason. Yeah, this card blows.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> I would rather self castrate with a rusty spoon than back Jimmy Heisman. Until next week.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-37615655683287684192009-11-08T20:51:00.002-05:002009-11-08T20:56:11.393-05:00Week 10 Mumme Poll Draft<u>Top Five</u><br />Florida<br />Alabama<br />Texas<br />TCU<br />Cincinnati<br /><br /><u>Next Seven</u><br />Boise State<br />Georgia Tech<br />Pittsburgh<br />LSU<br />Ohio State<br />USC<br />Oregon<br /><br />I think the Top 7 were fairly easy to place. I guess Pitt is a legit Top 12 team now. Watch them lay an egg to Jimmy Heisman this week. LSU, Ohio State, USC, Oregon round out the tail end of my ballot because they would be favored over any team behind them. Please don't give me Houston or Utah. Houston was a one point favorite over Tulsa and TCU opened at -17.5 over Utah. Who else can you argue to put in? Miami sucks. Iowa really sucks. Penn State really really sucks against decent teams. Maybe Arizona, but they lost to Iowa. Go Frogs.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-27404046280920405182009-11-08T20:02:00.000-05:002009-11-08T20:03:28.808-05:00CFB Week 11 Line GuessesAs usual, commentary tomorrow.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIn8rwDd9GFUUZ8_AAwdISnBu0_lMaOKWstoTA6Yok3olBu31izdjOXocampddKRhzTx4qqB9z7qEM0RWNsS-5DhB3qLlTIJf6k38whp00LNcNtI0Ef4RBeSRxNvgjlFaLcjJR/s1600-h/Week11LG-Pre.PNG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 117px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIn8rwDd9GFUUZ8_AAwdISnBu0_lMaOKWstoTA6Yok3olBu31izdjOXocampddKRhzTx4qqB9z7qEM0RWNsS-5DhB3qLlTIJf6k38whp00LNcNtI0Ef4RBeSRxNvgjlFaLcjJR/s400/Week11LG-Pre.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5401903145929440450" border="0" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-36935357750309535762009-11-08T08:32:00.005-05:002009-11-08T18:20:05.484-05:00Sunday 11/8I'm probably getting too cute with this card today. I'm sure when neither total covers, I'll be in a perfectly logical state of mind to play the Spartans tonight.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">1p HOU/IND u49 +110 3x</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 102);">1p Washington +9 -107 3x</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">1p Tampa Bay +9.5 +101 3x</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">1p MIA/NE u46.5 +104 3x</span><br /><br />I won't be playing anything at 4 o'clock, however the SNF under and SJSU might be on tap for the late night. Good luck.<br /><br />---------------------<br /><br />This is a good way to ruin a great week.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">8p San Jose State +13.5 +103 5x</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">820p DAL/PHL u49 +108 3x</span><br /><br />Good luck.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-80761846716068956292009-11-07T09:44:00.004-05:002009-11-08T08:11:28.156-05:00Saturday 11/7Headed out to watch The Most Boring Football Game Ever brought to you by the Big Ten<sup><span style="font-size:85%;">TM</span></sup>. Here is everything today. This has 2-6 written all over it.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 102);">12p Virginia +13.5 +104 3x</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">12p Purdue +6 +103 3x</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">130p Colorado +3 +101 3x</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 102);">330p Iowa State +7 +107 3x</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">330p Stanford +7 +103 5x</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">730p Tulsa +1.5 +103 3x</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">8p Nebraska +4 +113 5x</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">8p Arizona State +10 +103 3x</span></span><br /><br />My life feels incomplete without Juice or Paulus. Good luck.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-9500227606695362922009-11-06T18:37:00.000-05:002009-11-06T18:37:00.189-05:00Leans NFL Week 9/CFB Week 10 Revisited<u>Definite Plays</u><br />12p Pur +6 @ Mich<br />12p UVa +13.5 @ Miami<br />130p Colo +3 vs. aTm<br />330p Stan +7 vs. Ore<br />330p Iowa St +7.5 vs. Okie St<br />730p Tulsa +1 vs. Hou<br />8p Neb +4 vs. OU<br />8p Ariz St +10 vs. USC<br />8p SJSU +13.5 vs. Nevada (Sun.)<br /><br />1p WAS +10 @ ATL<br />1p TB +9.5 vs. GB<br /><br /><u>Borderline Contrarian Plays</u><br />12p Ill +7 @ Minny<br />12p Cuse +21 @ Pitt<br />12p Wyo +13 vs. BYU<br /><br />835p DEN +3 vs. PIT (Mon.)<br /><br /><u>Borderline Volume Plays</u><br />1p UMd +6.5 @ NCSU<br />2p Baylor +14 @ Mizzou<br />4p SDSU +24.5 vs. TCUUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-80705068674547738542009-11-06T16:53:00.001-05:002009-11-07T09:50:06.793-05:00Friday 11/6I floated this three hours ago then took a nap. There are much, much better prices available now.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 102);">8p Boise/LaTech u50 +110 3x</span><br /><br />I'll throw up some leans later. Good luck.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-799690652176605102009-11-03T19:03:00.003-05:002009-11-03T19:09:43.587-05:00Leans NFL Week 9/CFB Week 10Lots of weird line movement this week on the college side. I'm going to need to re-evaluate these much more closely later in the week. In the NFL, the card looks light again. Two to three plays a week was what I was shooting for at the beginning of the season, and it's worked out fairly well so far, except for Week Freaking Seven.<br /><br /><u>Definite Plays</u><br />8p LaTech +21 vs. Boise (Fri.)<br />12p Cuse +21.5 @ Pitt<br />12p Ill +6.5 @ Minny<br />330p Iowa St +7.5 vs. Okie St<br />330p Stan +6.5 vs. Ore<br />8p Neb +5.5 vs. OU<br /><br />1p WAS +10 @ ATL<br />1p TB +10 vs. GB<br /><br /><u>Borderline Contrarian Plays</u><br />12p Purdue +6 @ Mich<br />1230p K-St +2.5 vs. Kansas<br />130p Colo +3 vs. aTm<br />8p Ariz St +10 vs. USC<br /><br /><u>Borderline Volume Plays</u><br />2p Wyo +13 vs. BYU<br />4p SDSU +24.5 vs. TCU<br />8p SJSU +14 vs. Nev (Sun.)<br /><br />I expect a few games to slide off this list and a few to get added by Friday. The line movement is such a mind flip.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-20921282155059038772009-11-02T20:21:00.006-05:002009-11-03T05:18:57.606-05:00CFB Week 10 Line Guess Results<a href="http://shamne.blogspot.com/">Sham</a> wins again, 2.13 to 3.13.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnD7Yp1cJ1hmU6MoLOHkYkU-QRp9CU93D8mDQNKWTvPDrTIqaSkR6yhODF7x2nSVfgLB2zkrOT3EXSnh5JmlM6EyRYgbhYSWmy84HA4akK4HUo-HCn7_SSFgyxRj5kSaNc-TgC/s1600-h/Week10LG-F.PNG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 226px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnD7Yp1cJ1hmU6MoLOHkYkU-QRp9CU93D8mDQNKWTvPDrTIqaSkR6yhODF7x2nSVfgLB2zkrOT3EXSnh5JmlM6EyRYgbhYSWmy84HA4akK4HUo-HCn7_SSFgyxRj5kSaNc-TgC/s400/Week10LG-F.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5399681622972565154" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">am19psu:</span> Any thoughts on this week's lines, other than the amount of money we are going to lose on Stanford?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sham:</span> That game already has big play written all over it, line is definitely set to induce a play on the Trojan-slaying Ducks. It will be interesting to see how USC responds to being dominated for the first time in ages. Respect accrued from previous seasons seems to be gone as well seeing that USC is only -10.5 against ASU.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> I'm not really all that surprised by the USC line. It's been obvious the last three weeks that this is not the same USC team of the last 7 years. Now the bookmakers have decided to adjust accordingly.<br /><br />The short line that did surprise me was Houston. We touched on it last week a little bit, but the books (and apparently sharps) have zero respect for Houston versus the rest of C-USA, even with Kinne questionable after getting concussed against SMU.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S:</span> Line was a surprise to me as well. Touching on the Houston/USM game for a bit. I feel bad for those who got down on USM +6.5 and don't have a local who jacks up his lines, in this case 7.5 (I'm trying to get everyone to hate me).<br /><br />Getting to a non-BCS team that doesn't get their lines steamed every game, <a href="http://rexfordbuzzsaw.wordpress.com/">The Saw</a>'s favorite team, TCU. I've gone against them once this year when they played Clemson, but this week SDSU will get a look.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> Count me on the TCU bandwagon, too. I mean, they're clearly not the best team in the country because of their talent deficit, but if you were a fan of say, I don't know, Penn State, would you want to face them in a BCS bowl?<br /><br />In terms of this week's game, I'm not sure that game will have enough of a handle for me to play it, but it's obviously worth watching, especially considering the way TCU has destroyed the competition the last few weeks.<br /><br />Let's get back to the BCS conferences. Earlier this season, the books put UF -10 @ LSU. We speculated on Saturday that Bama is 3-4 points worse than UF on a neutral field. You nailed the line, so has LSU gone up in your eyes, Bama/Florida dropped or a little of both?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S:</span> I think the way LSU shut down a dynamic Pelican attack this past Saturday, limiting them to less than 3.8 ypp raises their profile in the eyes of many. Seriously though, I think LSU has shown a little improvement but people now have concerns over Bama, specifically their QB play. Roll Tide hasn't had a dominant victory since September against Arkansas. I think it's a little overblown and presents a decent look for Bama this week. As for Florida, I think their perception has dropped as well but they're still going to be favored over anyone on a neutral field.<br /><br />Big game in my neck of the woods is OU -5.5 at Nebraska. Can I get your non-biased thoughts on this?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> If Nebraska had a competent quarterback, they could be one of the best teams in the country. I watched maybe 10 plays in the game against Baylor Saturday, but one of them was an awful, telegraphed pick six from Lee. I hope Green starts for them on Saturday.<br /><br />In terms of betting, I imagine if there is going to be a public side, it will be OU. Their losses were to BYU, Tha U, and UT, versus VT, TTech, and Iowa State for Nebraska. Plus, I have to think the perception of the Big 12 North is complete garbage. Is that what you were thinking?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S:</span> *Green started last week for Lee, either way both are sub-standard<br /><br />Exactly, add to the fact that it's the Saturday night game on ABC (along with USC/ASU) and I think the public sides with Oklahoma. Speaking of high-profile primetime games, it looks as though we'll be on the other side of coaching genius Chris Ault on Sunday night.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> The Spartans are going to be one the most anti-public sides at Wagerline this week. Hopefully, the volume is low and we can pass it. Or, I can just donk off some late night units like I did on Arizona State two weeks ago.<br /><br />Which QB are you looking forward to backing least on Saturday: Juice +6.5 or Paulus +21?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S:</span> Ugh, don't make me choose. It's looking like my least favorite Duke guard turned Cuse QB will get the nod over Juice. Although in a perfect world both lines would get steamed and I wouldn't have to play either one.<br /><br />There's not too much on the weekday docket except for La Tech, maybe a total will work its way in. I'm not even sure I could fade Temple even though they are facing a wretched Fake Miami squad.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> How dare you, sir! Rules of Contrarianville implicitly state that fading Temple is strictly prohibited. Seriously, though, I think LaTech will end up being a play and I'll end up wasting a Friday night watching that garbage.<br /><br />For the other "big" matchup of the weekend, I don't see much of an angle in the tOSU/PSU game. The under will probably be public, but I doubt we'll play a Saturday afternoon total.<br /><br />Looking through the rest of the BCS lines, not a whole lot jumps out at me. Is the public aware Reesing got benched last week? Will Michigan be public after losing to Juice? Is anyone respecting Duke yet? Oregon State vs. Cal?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S:</span> There's not much in terms of BCS Conference action. I've cooled off Wake against GT and Rizo vs Wazzu but those will be revisited later in the week. I like Clemson as a chalk look against an all offense no defense F$U squad. Any parting thoughts for the week?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> That game seemed like a pass to me. The Dabos have been on a roll since losing to Maryland a few weeks back.<br /><br />Parting thought: Stanford is a large play or a max play for you? I'm leaning large right now. If the game was on Thursday night or Saturday night, it would be a max.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">S:</span> Right now it stands as a large play, I don't see it going to a max.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> At least our cards will somewhat small for another week. That is, until <a href="http://shamne.blogspot.com/2009/11/this-is-going-to-hurt.html">you get ambitious on Sunday morning again</a>. Good luck this week.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-74793338450497126192009-11-01T20:00:00.000-05:002009-11-01T20:01:08.263-05:00CFB Week 10 Line GuessesHere are the guesses. Commentary tomorrow.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP9Y4jR9Pa3XoANK5IS0T2vnn8tO3dzDu8e01dAftxwvicJ7qRM4cIaylfZQTg2cjFMZbuYENbEG0PF0I4QWL_2cVwwGfUdNm5myftOrUxbJe74-owLKBxXYVREuU0vI4jA-2n/s1600-h/Week10LG-Pre.PNG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 125px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiP9Y4jR9Pa3XoANK5IS0T2vnn8tO3dzDu8e01dAftxwvicJ7qRM4cIaylfZQTg2cjFMZbuYENbEG0PF0I4QWL_2cVwwGfUdNm5myftOrUxbJe74-owLKBxXYVREuU0vI4jA-2n/s400/Week10LG-Pre.PNG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5399304968044161602" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-40376087003850475272009-11-01T16:31:00.002-05:002009-11-01T16:33:32.883-05:00Week 9 Mumme Poll Draft<u>Top Five</u><br />Alabama<br />Florida<br />Texas<br />TCU<br />Cincinnati<br /><br /><u>Next Seven</u><br />Oregon<br />Boise State<br />Iowa<br />Georgia Tech<br />LSU<br />Penn State<br />Pitt<br /><br />Putting Pitt in the Top 12 bothers me, because both Ohio State and USC would be favored over them, but at this point I am valuing having one loss to NC State over having two losses to USC/Purdue or Washington/Oregon.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-38402392003990297282009-11-01T11:18:00.005-05:002009-11-01T19:27:12.602-05:00Sunday 11/1There is nothing I really like about the NFL.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 102);">1p Buffalo +3.5 -103 3x</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">1p SF/IND u44.5 +106 3x</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">415p Carolina +9 +112 3x</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-76618800526119412162009-10-31T10:16:00.008-04:002009-10-31T22:58:13.854-04:00Saturday 10/31My apathy towards this season is growing.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 102);">12p Syracuse +15 +100 5x</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 102);">1p Southern Mississippi +6.5 +101 3x</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">330p Wake Forest +6.5 +104 3x</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">330p Arizona State +6.5 -101 3x</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">330p Illinois +7 -101 3x</span><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 102);">730p Vanderbilt +11.5 +102 3x</span><br /><br />Good luck.<br /><br />------<br /><br />Really glad I didn't make Vandy a large play like I considered.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-58524637784325976652009-10-30T18:51:00.003-04:002009-10-31T01:12:34.824-04:00Friday 10/30I waited too long on this game and got a poor price.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(0, 153, 0);">8p South Florida +3 -110 3x</span><br /><br />Plays for tomorrow will be Cuse, SoMiss, Wake, Rizo St, Juice, and Vandy. No need for a whole post for that. Good luck.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-36261200909063908762009-10-27T19:11:00.003-04:002009-10-27T19:42:24.882-04:00Leans NFL Week 8/CFB Week 9I'd like to just put a zero up for this post. At least the NFL looks relatively painless this week.<br /><br /><u>Definite Plays</u><br />8p USF +3 vs. WVU (Fri.)<br />12p Cuse +14.5 vs. Cincy<br />12p NCSU +9.5 @ FSU<br />1p SoMiss +6.5 @ Hou<br />330p Wake +7.5 vs. Miami<br />330p Ariz St +6.5 vs. Cal<br />330p Ill +7 vs. UM<br />730p Vandy +11.5 vs. GT<br /><br /><ul><li>All of these college plays may be too aggressive. I'm obviously going to investigate further throughout the week.</li><li>I'll be glad to have Greg Paulus and Juice Williams back in my life Saturday. I missed you guys.</li><li>I like fading overrated Florida teams. Unfortunately, that only applies to two of the three this week.</li><li>If Wagerline's numbers are to be believed, the SoMiss/Hou is going to take in an absurd amount of action for a C-USA game.</li></ul><br /><br /><u>Borderline Contrarian Plays</u><br />1220p Auburn +3.5 vs. Ole Miss<br />1230p Baylor +13.5 vs. Neb<br />130p Colo +3.5 vs. Mizzou<br />330p Fla -15 vs. UGa<br /><br />1p BUF +3.5 vs. HOU<br />415p GB -3 vs. MIN<br />415p CAR +10 @ ARZ<br /><br /><ul><li>I initially thought that the Auburn/Ole Miss game would be a pass, but I forgot that Ole Miss has a pro style, SEC quarterback.</li><li>Did the public miss Nebraska losing to Texas Tech and Iowa State the last two weeks?</li><li>I actually like Florida as a side this week, which means I should pass.</li><li>None of that NFL garbage looks appealing, though I'm sure some of it will spill over to make my Sunday miserable.</li></ul><br /><u>Borderline Contrarian Plays</u><br />330p CMU +5 @ BC<br />8p Minny +3.5 vs. Sparty<br /><br /><ul><li>Not that anyone has noticed, but the Chips are a pretty good football team this year.</li><li>I was surprised to see the Minny line still posted after Decker's injury announcement today. I can't wait to back a completely neutered Gopher team.</li></ul>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-23067454986945971092009-10-27T18:51:00.002-04:002009-10-31T01:12:52.606-04:00Tuesday 10/27When I woke up this morning and checked last night's score, I thought there wouldn't be anything I would want to do less today than update my record.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 102, 102);">8p Memphis +5 +104 3x</span><br /><br />Then this happened. Good luck.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-7981053581451697222009-10-26T20:50:00.005-04:002009-10-26T21:18:44.597-04:00CFB Week 9 Line Guess ResultsSham won again, but I pulled the margin closer, 2.53 to 3.03. Improvement is nice. Comments below.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXgdiR850iSguHMYAzJR1fuN65GS6MRh5zX6SHm3PYQ-5iGa7C0gKoNdNoT1XCyjRJ8CRlbPwhXsG0i89eNFdcSwOe3xl5aJ1fE4d4WCndlPqXtrkSKRA1mnf2RT9Je94pRAsP/s1600-h/Week9LG-F.PNG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 213px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXgdiR850iSguHMYAzJR1fuN65GS6MRh5zX6SHm3PYQ-5iGa7C0gKoNdNoT1XCyjRJ8CRlbPwhXsG0i89eNFdcSwOe3xl5aJ1fE4d4WCndlPqXtrkSKRA1mnf2RT9Je94pRAsP/s400/Week9LG-F.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5397076313697818258" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">am19psu:</span> Clearly, I was on crack when I came up with the UNC/VT line. After putting up lines too large the last few weeks, I overadjusted this week on that game and the Indy/Iowa game. Any games you're pissed at yourself for? I mean, other than gambling at all on Sunday.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sham:</span> I did most my line guesses during halftime of the early games. Needless to say I was a bit upset and didn't put too much care into my guesses this week. I'm not really pissed about any of my guesses except for maybe Wyo/Utah and ULM/Troy just because I was so far off. A line that I found odd was Tulsa -17. I really didn't expect Tulsa to be that high, I see you believed the same.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> I know Houston beat SMU by three touchdowns, but it wasn't that much higher than the spread. Are the books really implying that Tulsa is a point better Houston? It's not like GJ Kinne is in any way good.<br /><br />In a similar vein, I guess the books have been impressed with the Beavers the last two weeks or unimpressed with UCLA. I just took the difference of their Stanford lines in Week 6 (+2, home) and Week 4 (+5, road) respectively and managed to be off by ten freaking points.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sham:</span> Did some checking and Bo Levi left the game early with a dislocated shoulder against Houston and is questionable for this week's game against Tulsa, that explains it.<br /><br />I looked at Beavs & Bruins recent lines with UCLA being +9.5 against Arizona last week on the road. Now Arizona > Oregon St, but with Oregon State's close game against USC and UCLA not covering the number last week against Arizona I can see justification for it even though it does seem high.<br /><br />Getting back to C-USA, Southern Miss is already down to +6.5 against Houston. Interesting, but not surprising.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> I'm looking forward to potentially wagering on a quarterback named Martevious. It's not like sharps haven't been fading Houston every week (ref. ML).<br /><br />Do you think we will end up on Florida Saturday in the TWLOCP (again, for some of us) and with Georgia's secondary, is this the week they finally look better than feces?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sham:</span> Georgia is more of a name than Arkansas and Mississippi State so it is a definite possibility given Florida has only been dominant against Troy and the first quarter against Kentucky. I'm looking forward to Tulane/LSU in a sadistic sort of way. I can't wait to see the Pelican offense march into Baton Rouge.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> I don't think we'll be on the Pelican, but it was nice of Vegas to set a line that didn't make me immediately nauseous. Staying in the SEC, I guess we should thank Florida for keeping it somewhat close against Miss State. Otherwise, we'd probably be on them against Kentucky, after beating Auburn two weeks ago. Speaking of which, I think we'll both be happy to pass the Ole Miss/Auburn interception fest.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sham:</span> Interception fest? You must be confusing pro-style QB Jevan Snead and spread-option extraordinaire Chris Todd with some other mediocre QBs. Speaking of turnovers, Nebraska is -13.5 at Baylor. 4 points better than Okie St was last week? That's good to know because I want no part of either team right now.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> I still don't think Nebraska is that bad. They're unlikely to replicate eight turnovers again and they outgained Texas Tech. Are they a possible Top 12 team like I thought two weeks ago? Doubtful, but it's not like they are garbage either.<br /><br />Any chance we're on the Pokes this week? I'd like to fade Texas, but I get the feeling I'm not the only one with that opinion.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sham:</span> Pokes still look to be a sexy team plus the line isn't gross. I can see public rationale for taking Okie St +10 at home against a Texas team who hasn't done much this year (see 2-4-1 record ATS). One game that has definite written all over it is 'Cuse +15 versus Cincy. An odd game I'm interested in is Wazzu/ND, I'm sure Jimmy Heisman will have to engineer a comeback over another quality foe.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> Yeah, I don't see any way around Cuse. I didn't need those five units anyway.<br /><br />I wish the books would treat the Rams/Browns/Bucs like they've treated Wazzu the last two years. At least we never get involved with their games. I didn't look at any Heisman press this week. Is Jimmy H still considered a Top 3 contender? Can we just not award it this year? Couldn't you at least make an argument for CJ Spiller at this point? He's had a play over 60 yards in every game this year.<br /><br />It's almost bed time for me. I think we might be looking at a public dog this week in Oregon. I can't see playing USC as road chalk, but I bet the split is 55/45 or worse on Oregon at Wagerline. Any other games you're interested in?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sham:</span> NC St is on the radar, I don't see how F$U doesn't put up 50 easy on them this week. Illinois, Vandy, Rizo St and Northwestern all make me groan when I think about playing them so they'll get looks as well. Then there's whatever garbage I dig up throughout the week.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">19:</span> Illinois and Syracuse pretty much sum up my life right now.<br /><br />Anyway, that's it for me. Catch you next week.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-58903206393132174542009-10-26T18:25:00.002-04:002009-10-26T18:27:37.247-04:00Monday 10/26I was planning on being in bed by 9p tonight before placing this wager. I see absolutely no reason to change my gameplan.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">830p Washington +7.5 +105 3x</span><br /><br />Good luck, I guess. Not like it matters.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-52109101751659017882009-10-25T17:34:00.003-04:002009-10-25T18:07:50.516-04:00CFB Week 9 Line GuessesI actually took my time this week, so my error score might be halfway decent. Sham and I are really close on a lot of lines. The big differences are Indiana/Iowa, WMU/Kent, Real Miami/Wake, <strike>NMex/SDSU</strike>*, and Wyoming/Utah. We'll chat tomorrow and post the results in the evening, assuming I don't come down with SARS again or whatever I had last week.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0A6yegWRybNlP07ctm8wQx79Nme-sEktpu2Cr0lAIFFuDPetOImNHFXIBpdBm1C_v870rQUOt-eg8kCcG3vuYCW_-pMm7abQoC6A9tlzBgXrktReDe0Ph8RVH1B7qY5M2oDGD/s1600-h/Week9LG-Pre.PNG"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 121px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0A6yegWRybNlP07ctm8wQx79Nme-sEktpu2Cr0lAIFFuDPetOImNHFXIBpdBm1C_v870rQUOt-eg8kCcG3vuYCW_-pMm7abQoC6A9tlzBgXrktReDe0Ph8RVH1B7qY5M2oDGD/s400/Week9LG-Pre.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5396654978506354642" border="0" /></a><br />* - Sham sent me an email and wanted SDSU to be the favorite. Duly noted.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-72220231050714623682009-10-25T14:49:00.002-04:002009-10-25T14:53:17.841-04:00Week 8 Mumme Poll DraftTCU and Cincy finally gave me enough reason to knock Boise out of the Top 5. At this point, I think those two teams would be favored over anyone in the next seven on a neutral field, except USC.<br /><br /><u>Top Five</u><br />Florida<br />Alabama<br />Texas<br />TCU<br />Cincinnati<br /><br /><u>Next Seven</u><br />Boise State<br />Iowa<br />Georgia Tech<br />Virginia Tech<br />USC<br />Oregon<br />LSU<br /><br />Teams 6-11 seem pretty solid to me in some order. I thought about lifting Penn State, Oklahoma State, or Pitt ahead of LSU, but I left it as is for continuity. I'm sure I'll address it again next week.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2