Leans NFL Week 3/CFB Week 4

I have a feeling the first ocho of the season will be broken out early this week, and possibly twice. There are a couple obvious, must plays in both college and pro, and then a few more marginal games. Some of the more marginal games are going to make it onto my college card. Hopefully, I can show some restraint on the pro side.

Definite Plays
745p SoCar +3 vs. Ole Miss (Thu.)
9p Nevada +7.5 vs. Mizzou (Fri.)
12p NW -2.5 vs. Minny
6p NC State -1.5 vs. Pitt
915p Hou -2 vs. TTech

1p TB +6.5 vs. NYG
1p STL +6.5 vs. GB
405p BUF +5 vs. NO

• Both weeknight games scream big action.
• Northwestern's line doesn't make a ton of sense given both their lines against improved Syracuse, especially since the Cats lost to them.
• I think everyone knows Houston knocked off Oklahoma State, but I doubt Joe Q thought they would be favored against last year's cinderella.
• All three of the pro lines make me want to vomit. I mean, New Orleans has put up eleventy billion points in the last two weeks and they are only giving 5 in Buffalo?

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Illy +14 @ tOSU
12p Fresno +16.5 @ Cincy
1230p Miss St +12.5 vs. LSU
330p Bama -17 vs. Arky
630p Stan -7 vs. Wash
730p VT +3 vs. Miami
8p Pur +7 vs. ND

1p JAX +3.5 @ HOU
1p CLE +13 @ BAL
405p SEA +1 vs. CHI
415p CIN +4 vs. PIT
415p OAK -1 vs. DEN
820p ARZ -1 vs. IND

• Illy and Fresno are marginal. Those lines are bigger than I thought they would be.
• Miss St and Alabama represent an interesting dichotomy. Before the season, the books had Bama/Ole Miss/LSU about the same. Clearly, Bama has pulled far ahead in the books' eyes. I'm not sure the difference is as large for the public.
• I'll be shocked if I don't end up on Stanford. Washington is an obvious let down spot.
• So is Miami in Blacksburg.
• Purdue just got beat by a MAC school and now only getting a touchdown against America's Team?
• Cincy seems like the best bet out of those to make the pro card.
• What am I missing in JAX/HOU? That didn't seem like the uber-public game that the consensus numbers make it out to be.

Borderline Volume Plays
12p UMd +2.5 vs. Rutgers
12p BGSU +16.5 vs. Boise
2p SoMiss +14 @ Kansas
10p USC -45 vs. Wazzu

• Maryland sucks.
• I think fading Boise is going to at least end up as a lean every week.
• Southern Miss is actually a good CUSA outfit this year. That's like winning a silver medal in the Special Olympics.
• I think I might end up on Southern Cal on principle. They could only put up 13 last week in Seattle and now they are favored by 45. Awesome.