Leans NFL Week 3/CFB Week 4

I have a feeling the first ocho of the season will be broken out early this week, and possibly twice. There are a couple obvious, must plays in both college and pro, and then a few more marginal games. Some of the more marginal games are going to make it onto my college card. Hopefully, I can show some restraint on the pro side.

Definite Plays
745p SoCar +3 vs. Ole Miss (Thu.)
9p Nevada +7.5 vs. Mizzou (Fri.)
12p NW -2.5 vs. Minny
6p NC State -1.5 vs. Pitt
915p Hou -2 vs. TTech

1p TB +6.5 vs. NYG
1p STL +6.5 vs. GB
405p BUF +5 vs. NO

  • Both weeknight games scream big action.
  • Northwestern's line doesn't make a ton of sense given both their lines against improved Syracuse, especially since the Cats lost to them.
  • I think everyone knows Houston knocked off Oklahoma State, but I doubt Joe Q thought they would be favored against last year's cinderella.
  • All three of the pro lines make me want to vomit. I mean, New Orleans has put up eleventy billion points in the last two weeks and they are only giving 5 in Buffalo?

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Illy +14 @ tOSU
12p Fresno +16.5 @ Cincy
1230p Miss St +12.5 vs. LSU
330p Bama -17 vs. Arky
630p Stan -7 vs. Wash
730p VT +3 vs. Miami
8p Pur +7 vs. ND

1p JAX +3.5 @ HOU
1p CLE +13 @ BAL
405p SEA +1 vs. CHI
415p CIN +4 vs. PIT
415p OAK -1 vs. DEN
820p ARZ -1 vs. IND

  • Illy and Fresno are marginal. Those lines are bigger than I thought they would be.
  • Miss St and Alabama represent an interesting dichotomy. Before the season, the books had Bama/Ole Miss/LSU about the same. Clearly, Bama has pulled far ahead in the books' eyes. I'm not sure the difference is as large for the public.
  • I'll be shocked if I don't end up on Stanford. Washington is an obvious let down spot.
  • So is Miami in Blacksburg.
  • Purdue just got beat by a MAC school and now only getting a touchdown against America's Team?
  • Cincy seems like the best bet out of those to make the pro card.
  • What am I missing in JAX/HOU? That didn't seem like the uber-public game that the consensus numbers make it out to be.

Borderline Volume Plays
12p UMd +2.5 vs. Rutgers
12p BGSU +16.5 vs. Boise
2p SoMiss +14 @ Kansas
10p USC -45 vs. Wazzu

  • Maryland sucks.
  • I think fading Boise is going to at least end up as a lean every week.
  • Southern Miss is actually a good CUSA outfit this year. That's like winning a silver medal in the Special Olympics.
  • I think I might end up on Southern Cal on principle. They could only put up 13 last week in Seattle and now they are favored by 45. Awesome.


adam said...

The best part about Maryland's football team being awful is that I know they're gonna turn into a mad contrarian look eventually.