NCAA Tournament log5 Predictions

Before the conference tournaments, I posted the log5 predictions for each of the eight majors. These are the probabilities of each team advancing to the next round. For example, the number under Sweet 16 is the probability of advancing from the Sweet 16 to the Elite 8.

The blue and green columns are the fair value price for getting to the Final Four and winning the championship, respectively. Future bets with better juice than the numbers below are likely good wagers.

Keep in mind, this is based off the Pomeroy pyth metric and is not altered in any way. As before, Vegas Watch will do this better later in the week with sportsbook adjustments.






Black n Gold said...

Awesome stuff here...interesting things:

WVU has the 2nd best chance to get to the F4 and win in their region as a 6 seed. This obviously isnt' surprising to anyone who checks Pomeroy.

Memphis being a heavy favorite in its region -- again not surprising.

Gonzaga's odds being somewhat close to UNC's.

The East is Pitt, Duke, and UCLA. And with Duke's history and UCLA's seed, I don't foresee many people picking anyone other than Pitt to win that region.

rexfordbuzzsaw said...

How did you do this?

am19psu said...

How did you do this?

I'm awesome.

In all seriousness, it was just setting up really long Excel formulas and knowing the log5 formula and how conditional probability works.

Tonto Kowalski said...

Again, great stuff. I was thinking I'd have to wait until Wednesday for Pomeroy's log5 to show up on BP... now I can get a head start.

Gamblor said...

WVU +545 to make the final 4 at the Greek.

UCLA +1015 to make it at the that's worth a flyer.

Pitt +155 to make the F4 as well.

Great stuff Adam.

mike honcho said...

if anybody still has money in the shit show known as Bodog, WVU is 13-1! to make the final four. Just put 5x on them. So is Arizona St

mike honcho said...

not 5x, i lied, not that you care

Jeb McRary said...

I created a model over Spring Break and I actually had Gonzaga with slightly higher chances than UConn. Not sure why our numbers are differing as I am using the Pomeroy numbers too. Maybe I did something slightly wrong. Our orders are mostly the same other than those two.

Jeb McRary said...

Sorry, I meant I had UConn with higher chances than Gonzaga.

am19psu said...

I'm not sure either. I could have just as easily made a mistake. Are they that significantly different that the EV of a future bet is off?

Jeb McRary said...

My EV for a Connecticut bet would be 1251.

For Gonzaga, mine would be 1277.

am19psu said...

Well, it's somewhat reassuring that even though they're off, they're off by so little that I doubt it affects anyone decision-making process.

Anonymous said...

Great Work

I wonder how many people would realize that North Dakota St and Cleveland St have a better chance to make the Final 4 than Dayton.