Showing posts with label mlb week 4. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mlb week 4. Show all posts
Record Update - 3 May 2009
,
Labels:
in review,
mlb week 4
I'd have to go back and check, but that might have been my worst week gambling on any sport ever. Here is the graph:
Sunday 5/3
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Labels:
mlb week 4,
plays
Is anyone surprised that it took a complete game from the starting pitcher for the Nats to win a game? I'm looking forward to giving away last night's profits today.
Plays
107p Baltimore +116 2x
135p Washington +114 3x
205p Arizona +131 2x
405p Colorado +109 2x
410p Oakland +119 2x
When does Washington stop being an automatic play? In a related question, if I were a gambler in 1988 at the age of 7, how much money would I have lost on the Baltimore Orioles?
Streak for the Cash
730p Boston vs. Carolina
Current Streak: 0
I don't see anything remotely close to playable until the hockey game tonight. The Bruins are -196 at Pinny.
Good luck today.
Plays
107p Baltimore +116 2x
135p Washington +114 3x
205p Arizona +131 2x
405p Colorado +109 2x
410p Oakland +119 2x
When does Washington stop being an automatic play? In a related question, if I were a gambler in 1988 at the age of 7, how much money would I have lost on the Baltimore Orioles?
Streak for the Cash
730p Boston vs. Carolina
Current Streak: 0
I don't see anything remotely close to playable until the hockey game tonight. The Bruins are -196 at Pinny.
Good luck today.
Saturday 5/2
,
Labels:
mlb week 4,
plays
I'm going to put all of my action in now because I have no idea what the OTB is going to be like today. I'll put a post up tonight detailing what I did and how much money I lost.
Plays
105p Washington +126 2x
705p Cincinnati -108 2x
910p Oakland +123 2x
I didn't really have time to get my action filled this morning. With more patience in the Matchbook markets, you'll be able to get better prices than these. Not that it matters when all three of these lose.
Passing all of the totals this afternoon.
Streak for the Cash
120p Tiger Woods lower score than Phil Mickelson (Quail Hollow)
Current Streak: 7
Tiger is -160 at The Greek right now. After juice, I've got him at 58.6% to win. I think that's probably good enough with my streak where it is.
Good luck today.
Plays
105p Washington +126 2x
705p Cincinnati -108 2x
910p Oakland +123 2x
I didn't really have time to get my action filled this morning. With more patience in the Matchbook markets, you'll be able to get better prices than these. Not that it matters when all three of these lose.
Passing all of the totals this afternoon.
Streak for the Cash
120p Tiger Woods lower score than Phil Mickelson (Quail Hollow)
Current Streak: 7
Tiger is -160 at The Greek right now. After juice, I've got him at 58.6% to win. I think that's probably good enough with my streak where it is.
Good luck today.
Friday 5/1
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Labels:
leans,
mlb week 4,
plays
I was lucky to pick up the Cubs win after Harden got knocked out after 3.2.
Plays
705p Washington -111 3x
It should be entertaining to watch the bullpen blow it after Zimmermann leaves with a lead after 7.
Leans
I don't really trust Wagerline's sample size at this hour. Other than Washington (again) nothing really stands out as an obvious play. I suppose Washburn ought to regress to the mean eventually, but tomorrow's card kind of sucks overall.
If you believe the early numbers, there could be some totals in play tomorrow, as well.
Streak for the Cash
805p Miami vs. Atlanta
Current Streak: 6
Miami is without a doubt the best play on the board tonight at -204. No doubt they'll lose.
Plays
705p Washington -111 3x
It should be entertaining to watch the bullpen blow it after Zimmermann leaves with a lead after 7.
Leans
I don't really trust Wagerline's sample size at this hour. Other than Washington (again) nothing really stands out as an obvious play. I suppose Washburn ought to regress to the mean eventually, but tomorrow's card kind of sucks overall.
If you believe the early numbers, there could be some totals in play tomorrow, as well.
Streak for the Cash
805p Miami vs. Atlanta
Current Streak: 6
Miami is without a doubt the best play on the board tonight at -204. No doubt they'll lose.
Afternoon Degeneracy
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Labels:
mlb week 4,
plays
Bossman gave me the afternoon off. Naturally, I did what any degenerate would do: place a bet.
220p Chicago -264 2x
I realize this isn't exactly a normal play for contrarians, but that line seemed really far off from what I was expecting and how the Fish have been judged thus far.
220p Chicago -264 2x
I realize this isn't exactly a normal play for contrarians, but that line seemed really far off from what I was expecting and how the Fish have been judged thus far.
Thursday 4/30
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 4,
plays
I should have guessed after having a good week last week, I would start this one down 8.8x. At least I won't lose any other money this weekend.
Plays
705p Washington +107 3x
805p Arizona -103 2x
1010p San Diego +143 2x
The Saw brought up a good point this afternoon. Most people don't know a whole lot about the pitchers tonight. I only knew them in passing, certainly not enough to influence my bet. Geer was projected to have a bit better year and has better peripherals, but McDonald gets run support from the Dodgers. It's not like this influenced my decision any, but it was nice to know.
Leans
I don't have enough knowledge/confidence in huge baseball spreads yet, but doesn't that CHC -266 look like it's asking for action on the Fish?
Streak for the Cash
705p Chicago vs. Boston
Current Streak: 3
I'll take the three points. Hell, if I played the NBA, I would actually play the Bulls tonight. I'll be on the Blazer/Rocket under as well, if I can stay up, unlike the last two nights.
The Bulls game isn't going to be over in time. Lean is to Padres' runs in the late prop, but I'm just passing.
Good luck tonight.
Plays
705p Washington +107 3x
805p Arizona -103 2x
1010p San Diego +143 2x
The Saw brought up a good point this afternoon. Most people don't know a whole lot about the pitchers tonight. I only knew them in passing, certainly not enough to influence my bet. Geer was projected to have a bit better year and has better peripherals, but McDonald gets run support from the Dodgers. It's not like this influenced my decision any, but it was nice to know.
Leans
I don't have enough knowledge/confidence in huge baseball spreads yet, but doesn't that CHC -266 look like it's asking for action on the Fish?
Streak for the Cash
705p Chicago vs. Boston
Current Streak: 3
I'll take the three points. Hell, if I played the NBA, I would actually play the Bulls tonight. I'll be on the Blazer/Rocket under as well, if I can stay up, unlike the last two nights.
The Bulls game isn't going to be over in time. Lean is to Padres' runs in the late prop, but I'm just passing.
Good luck tonight.
Leans 4/30
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 4
Another fantastic night last night in bases that didn't have to be. Cleveland's bullpen is really starting to get to me.
Oh, and I'm still soliciting pony advice.
Leans
705p WAS (Cabrera) +113 vs. STL (Boggs)
1010p SD (Geer) +135 @ LAD (McDonald)
The early line tells me a lot about what the books think about the Cards.
Streak for the Cash
740a R. Goosen lower score than A. Cabrera (Quail Hollow - Front 9)
1250a P. Mickelson lower score than A. Kim (Quail Hollow)
Current Streak: 2
I didn't even consult the Saw on this one. Goosen used to be a big name, but Cabrera is just coming off a Masters win. 99% of the time, some book out there is offering the prop that ESPN puts up, and there is a near zero chance that a book put this line out there looking for Goosen action.
For the rest of the day, both soccer matches and the baseball games are coin flips as best I can tell. I imagine I'll be on Kim later, but I'll check with the Saw before proceeding.
Oh, and I'm still soliciting pony advice.
Leans
705p WAS (Cabrera) +113 vs. STL (Boggs)
1010p SD (Geer) +135 @ LAD (McDonald)
The early line tells me a lot about what the books think about the Cards.
Streak for the Cash
740a R. Goosen lower score than A. Cabrera (Quail Hollow - Front 9)
1250a P. Mickelson lower score than A. Kim (Quail Hollow)
Current Streak: 2
I didn't even consult the Saw on this one. Goosen used to be a big name, but Cabrera is just coming off a Masters win. 99% of the time, some book out there is offering the prop that ESPN puts up, and there is a near zero chance that a book put this line out there looking for Goosen action.
For the rest of the day, both soccer matches and the baseball games are coin flips as best I can tell. I imagine I'll be on Kim later, but I'll check with the Saw before proceeding.
Wednesday 4/29
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 4,
plays
I still have no idea exactly how to play these totals. Obviously, that arbitrary cutoff system wasn't working in college hoops, but I'm also not sure how to thinly slice them. That said, 15% at SIA probably makes the cut.
Plays
705p Washington +167 2x
705p Cleveland +123 2x
710p Atlanta -111 2x
805p OAK/TEX u10.5 +114 2x
None of those three moneyline wagers should be much of a surprise given their opponents.
Leans
210p KC (Davies) -132 vs. TOR (Burres)
I think this would be my first fade of the juggernaut that is the Toronto Blue Jays.
Streak for the Cash
710p Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Current Streak: 0
Might as well double down on the short favorite. I'm probably going to play the over in the late NBA game, but it's pretty close to a coin flip.
Good luck tonight.
Plays
705p Washington +167 2x
705p Cleveland +123 2x
710p Atlanta -111 2x
805p OAK/TEX u10.5 +114 2x
None of those three moneyline wagers should be much of a surprise given their opponents.
Leans
210p KC (Davies) -132 vs. TOR (Burres)
I think this would be my first fade of the juggernaut that is the Toronto Blue Jays.
Streak for the Cash
710p Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Current Streak: 0
Might as well double down on the short favorite. I'm probably going to play the over in the late NBA game, but it's pretty close to a coin flip.
Good luck tonight.
Leans 4/29
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 4
That was a nice reaming last night.
Plays
Pass: Seattle
The Wagerline numbers moved significantly from last night, plus I didn't really feel comfortable backing the M's anyway, with Bedard on the mound and a better record than CHW.
Leans
7p ATL (Vazquez) -112 vs. STL (Wainwright)
705p WAS (Olsen) +166 @ PHL (Myers)
705p CLE (Carmona) +144 vs. BOS (Lester)
The Natinals are now 4-15. On one hand, their lines are definitely getting longer. Of course, on the other, squares are starting to go "Free money, bro," against the Nats everyday, so we keep playing them. Which is in no way altering my otherwise sunny disposition.
Streak for the Cash
1235p Baltimore vs. Angels
Current Streak: 0
The O's are a better pick than either the more innings prop or the soccer game. It also allows me to probably get on the 340p Cubs/DBacks game, if I choose. Which I might actually pass. Lean is to Rizo.
Good luck today.
---------------------------------
In a completely unrelated story, if sports radio and ESPN are completely ruined this whole summer by this lying, manipulative jerk, I am going to be a very unhappy person.
Plays
Pass: Seattle
The Wagerline numbers moved significantly from last night, plus I didn't really feel comfortable backing the M's anyway, with Bedard on the mound and a better record than CHW.
Leans
7p ATL (Vazquez) -112 vs. STL (Wainwright)
705p WAS (Olsen) +166 @ PHL (Myers)
705p CLE (Carmona) +144 vs. BOS (Lester)
The Natinals are now 4-15. On one hand, their lines are definitely getting longer. Of course, on the other, squares are starting to go "Free money, bro," against the Nats everyday, so we keep playing them. Which is in no way altering my otherwise sunny disposition.
Streak for the Cash
1235p Baltimore vs. Angels
Current Streak: 0
The O's are a better pick than either the more innings prop or the soccer game. It also allows me to probably get on the 340p Cubs/DBacks game, if I choose. Which I might actually pass. Lean is to Rizo.
Good luck today.
---------------------------------
In a completely unrelated story, if sports radio and ESPN are completely ruined this whole summer by this lying, manipulative jerk, I am going to be a very unhappy person.
Tuesday 4/28
,
Labels:
mlb week 4,
plays
Well, Seattle (Game 1) clearly became a play, but the wonderful Borough of State College Parking Office required my attention before I could get it in.
Plays
705p Washington +174 2x
705p Cleveland -104 2x
705p Baltimore +117 2x
805p Oakland +132 2x
940p Arizona +110 3x
1015p San Francisco +152 2x
Pass: Atlanta
That line against Zambrano seemed like a public bait line to me.
Leans
205p SEA (Bedard) -118 vs. CHW (Floyd)
Isn't Eric Bedard good again this year? At least until he gets hurt? And it's not like the Mariners suck. What am I missing here?
Streak for the Cash
705p Rangers +1.5 vs. Washington
940p Portland larger margin of victory than San Antonio
Current Streak: 2
Does ESPN think Streak is less gambling related if they don't put point spreads on the games? In any case, the Rangers +1.5 are -137 at Pinny while the Devils ML is -140. Those are the only two options on the early card. I haven't decided on anything for late, but I wanted to give myself the option, which is why I went with New York.
Portland is a marginal play that I am making based on juice movement at Pinny and because I at least have a reason for it, which I don't for taking Billingsley.
Plays
705p Washington +174 2x
705p Cleveland -104 2x
705p Baltimore +117 2x
805p Oakland +132 2x
940p Arizona +110 3x
1015p San Francisco +152 2x
Pass: Atlanta
That line against Zambrano seemed like a public bait line to me.
Leans
205p SEA (Bedard) -118 vs. CHW (Floyd)
Isn't Eric Bedard good again this year? At least until he gets hurt? And it's not like the Mariners suck. What am I missing here?
Streak for the Cash
705p Rangers +1.5 vs. Washington
940p Portland larger margin of victory than San Antonio
Current Streak: 2
Does ESPN think Streak is less gambling related if they don't put point spreads on the games? In any case, the Rangers +1.5 are -137 at Pinny while the Devils ML is -140. Those are the only two options on the early card. I haven't decided on anything for late, but I wanted to give myself the option, which is why I went with New York.
Portland is a marginal play that I am making based on juice movement at Pinny and because I at least have a reason for it, which I don't for taking Billingsley.
Leans 4/28
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Labels:
leans,
mlb week 4
Really, Washington?
Note the timestamp. Not that it was particularly prescient. The Natinals bullpen has been flipping us all season. Can't wait to back them again tonight.
Leans
705p WAS (Lannan) +170 @ PHL (Hamels)
705p CLE (Reyes) +100 vs. BOS (Penny)
705p BAL (Eaton) +110 vs. LAA (Saunders)
710p ATL (Reyes) -102 vs. STL (Lohse)
710p HOU (Rodriguez) +105 @ CIN (Harang)
805p OAK (Anderson) +135 @ TEX (Millwood)
940p ARZ (Petit) +118 vs. CHC (Zambrano)
1015p SF (Sanchez) +151 vs. LAD (Billinsgley)
Again, I think I'm the only one not thrilled with this card, although I think it is better yesterday, with some marginally bad pitchers on short lines. Nats, Tribe, DBacks, and Giants are initially bigger leans.
Streak for the Cash
7a S. Bolelli over P. Kohlschriber (Tennis)
3p Barcelona (win only) vs. Chelsea
Current Streak: 0
Bolelli is favored -135/+125. I have no idea why Sportsnation would be taking the German (other than he was made in Germany, and Germans always make good stuff). Unless something changes, hopefully broadcast either in the comments here or over at RMMB, I'll be on Barcelona for the soccer game later.
Good luck.
Note the timestamp. Not that it was particularly prescient. The Natinals bullpen has been flipping us all season. Can't wait to back them again tonight.
Leans
705p WAS (Lannan) +170 @ PHL (Hamels)
705p CLE (Reyes) +100 vs. BOS (Penny)
705p BAL (Eaton) +110 vs. LAA (Saunders)
710p ATL (Reyes) -102 vs. STL (Lohse)
710p HOU (Rodriguez) +105 @ CIN (Harang)
805p OAK (Anderson) +135 @ TEX (Millwood)
940p ARZ (Petit) +118 vs. CHC (Zambrano)
1015p SF (Sanchez) +151 vs. LAD (Billinsgley)
Again, I think I'm the only one not thrilled with this card, although I think it is better yesterday, with some marginally bad pitchers on short lines. Nats, Tribe, DBacks, and Giants are initially bigger leans.
Streak for the Cash
7a S. Bolelli over P. Kohlschriber (Tennis)
3p Barcelona (win only) vs. Chelsea
Current Streak: 0
Bolelli is favored -135/+125. I have no idea why Sportsnation would be taking the German (other than he was made in Germany, and Germans always make good stuff). Unless something changes, hopefully broadcast either in the comments here or over at RMMB, I'll be on Barcelona for the soccer game later.
Good luck.
Monday 4/27
,
Labels:
mlb week 4,
plays
Given my level of baseball knowledge in relation to the rest of Contrarianville, I assume that I am being entirely too tight tonight. That said, I'm not nearly as impressed with this card as some people are.
Plays
705p Washington +173 2x
705p Cleveland -121 2x
705p NYY/DET u9 +104 2x
940p Arizona -146 2x
Even though I don't like laying chalk, especially on moneylines, these two are about as anti-pub as I've seen so far in bases (small sample size, obviously). I'm not sure if it's a good thing or a bad thing that I'm backing last year's Cy Young winner and a guy that arguably could have won it two years ago.
There are no day games tomorrow, again, so no thinking tonight. Yay.
Streak for the Cash
7p Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Current Streak: 0
I don't feel real confident about this one, but sooner or later the Cards should stop mashing, at least at their current rate. Leaning Dodgers late, unless someone who knows something about the NBA can tell me if the 12 points the Lakers are favored by are statistically significantly different than the 10.7 apg Deron Williams averages.
Good luck tonight.
Plays
705p Washington +173 2x
705p Cleveland -121 2x
705p NYY/DET u9 +104 2x
940p Arizona -146 2x
Even though I don't like laying chalk, especially on moneylines, these two are about as anti-pub as I've seen so far in bases (small sample size, obviously). I'm not sure if it's a good thing or a bad thing that I'm backing last year's Cy Young winner and a guy that arguably could have won it two years ago.
There are no day games tomorrow, again, so no thinking tonight. Yay.
Streak for the Cash
7p Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Current Streak: 0
I don't feel real confident about this one, but sooner or later the Cards should stop mashing, at least at their current rate. Leaning Dodgers late, unless someone who knows something about the NBA can tell me if the 12 points the Lakers are favored by are statistically significantly different than the 10.7 apg Deron Williams averages.
Good luck tonight.
Leans 4/27
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 4
That was hopefully the last weekend I'm gone until the end of June. Don't people realize getting married interferes with my internet gambling world?
Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +158 @ PHL (Blanton)
705p CLE (Lee) -109 vs. BOS (Wakefield)
705p NYY (Sabathia)/DET (Verlander) u9.5
940p ARZ (Haren) -132 vs. CHC (Lilly)
1015p SF (Zito) +120 vs. LAD (Wolf)
Wakefield has to become human again at some point, right? That under seems a bit too obvious to me, although I guess Verlander is pitching better than his W-L and ERA suggest and Sabathia has been lit up a few times already.
Streak for the Cash
7a Australia vs. Pakistan (Cricket)
Current Streak: 3
Bodog has this set at -180/+140, so Australia's JA probability is somewhere north of 60%. Ordinarily, I would be concerned with the game lasting so long, but with only an EPL coin flip this afternoon, there is nothing worth playing until tonight.
Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +158 @ PHL (Blanton)
705p CLE (Lee) -109 vs. BOS (Wakefield)
705p NYY (Sabathia)/DET (Verlander) u9.5
940p ARZ (Haren) -132 vs. CHC (Lilly)
1015p SF (Zito) +120 vs. LAD (Wolf)
Wakefield has to become human again at some point, right? That under seems a bit too obvious to me, although I guess Verlander is pitching better than his W-L and ERA suggest and Sabathia has been lit up a few times already.
Streak for the Cash
7a Australia vs. Pakistan (Cricket)
Current Streak: 3
Bodog has this set at -180/+140, so Australia's JA probability is somewhere north of 60%. Ordinarily, I would be concerned with the game lasting so long, but with only an EPL coin flip this afternoon, there is nothing worth playing until tonight.
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