How Does Frank Choose Sides?

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Every contrarian has their own style of finding the sides to play. I'm going to show you mine, using tonight as an example.

The first place I look is Wagerline. I go there and write down every game where the underdog is getting less than 40% of the action, usually. For nights with big cards, like tonight, I'll usually stop after 37%. I'll also add favorites receiving less than 50%. Next to each of these games, I'll add a 'W' next to the game. I'll also check the line movement throughout the day. For games with reverse line movement, I'll put an 'L' next to the game and for forward, an 'X' is placed.

Next, I visit Carib, Sportsbook, Sports Investments Insights, and SIA to look at their consensus numbers. I follow a similar pattern to Wagerline and place a 'C', a 'B', a check, and an 'A' next to the games that qualify.

Finally, I'll head over to KenPom and see how the line compares to the Pomeroy prediction. Games where the prediction shows the lean beating the spread get a 'K', while an 'H' marks games where the prediction is not in my favor.

Of course, there needs to be a way to differentiate between a side that is receiving 35% of the action and sides that are getting 15%. I do this by circling or squaring the letters or leaving them alone according to the key below. There are different levels for different sites because some have more squares than others. For example, SIA is the squarest book around, so their thresholds are lower than the rest.



Lastly, I integrate all of this information in my head and come up with the unit size that I want to play a particular side. Below, tonight's 2x plays are in yellow and the 3x plays are in orange.



I do all of this in a notebook every night. It may not be the most efficient use of my time, but I feel it allows me to see the most information and make better decisions.

10 comments:

am19psu said...

I should note that I know Joe Mazzula is out for the rest of the year for WVU, so their KP number isn't as good as it looks, but I still think it was the right call, current score notwithstanding.

am19psu said...

...and make better decisions

Might want to re-think that one.

AdamL said...

thank you so much for this post. VERY informative

Vegas Watch said...

So on a night like tonight you wouldn't even look at a dog getting more than 37% of the action at Wagerline?

jwsherjr said...

This is actually very similar to what I do except I pull my initial leans without looking at lines, then narrow them down with the consensus sites.

Also, I don't make as colorful of a spreadsheet.

am19psu said...

So on a night like tonight you wouldn't even look at a dog getting more than 37% of the action at Wagerline?

Not necessarily. I keep all of the consensus site tabs open in Firefox, so if something grabs my eye at one of the other ones, I can go cross it back at Wagerline (etc.), just to see what happened. For the purposes of this post, I thought it might be instructive to post what I normally do.

Also, I don't make as colorful of a spreadsheet.

Neither do I. Everything is written in a notebook. It's kind of hard to transfer that electronically, especially since I don't own a scanner.

am19psu said...

Back to Vegas' point, I also start at Wagerline because I've found that I skip over far fewer false negatives by starting there than sifting through more false positives if I started at one of the others.

moneyline said...

If I was the influence behind your fruity action charts then you really aren't going to like the post I am working on. I apologize in advance.

Jonny said...

I'm guessing you mean sports insights and not sports investments.

On a side note, I unfortunately(or fortunately?) like Michigan's chances tonight.

am19psu said...

If I was the influence behind your fruity action charts then you really aren't going to like the post I am working on.

Nah. I couldn't figure out how to put circles or squares around letters in HTML. I figured a fruity table was the next best option.