This week's Wednesday post was inspired by today's publishing of the BlogPoll, run by Brian Cook. In this week's edition, he mentions that a blog run by Bama and Vol fans (Third Saturday in Blogtober) had remorse about voting for Texas Tech #1:
For all the talk about how Texas Tech’s wins are better, is a win over Texas at home on a last second play that much better than a win over LSU in Baton Rouge in OT? Is beating Oklahoma State handily on your own turf that much more impressive than beating Georgia handily on theirs? The Raiders have only beaten two other teams that will get a bowl bid (Nebraska and Kansas) just as the Tide has, though Clemson could make it a third team.
The answer to the first two questions is "YES! YES! A THOUSAND TIMES YES!" LSU has had 50 hung on them by Florida and Georgia, with the Georgia shellacking coming at home. Georgia, in turn, had 50 hung on them by Florida. The better question should be, "Wasn't Alabama underwhelming beating LSU in overtime?" It certainly would be if Alabama was in the Big Ten.
Back to that Georgia game. I've postulated here before that the win over Georgia isn't as impressive as Bammer fans like to make it out to be. It was an incredible first half, but as good as it was, Bama was almost equally as shitty in the second half. Since then, I would argue we've seen Georgia exposed as a fraud. The Florida game was obviously an emasculation. But we've seen other chinks in the Georgia armor: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, South Carolina. I defy you to show me a dominating victory on Georgia's schedule. Like the other "big" win for Bama (Clemson), Georgia is not who we thought they were before the season.
This post isn't only about Bama though, even though I firmly believe that the Red Raiders should be #1. It's about breaking the S-E-C! meme. Let's take a look first at the LVSC rankings. There are four SEC teams in the top 12, but then none the rest of the way. Most years, people claim the reason the conference is so good is its top to bottom strength. Certainly not the case this year.
In other computer polls, the SEC ranks third in the Sagarin Ratings, third in the Massey Ratings, and third in the Anderson-Hester rankings. Clearly not the top to bottom threat we've been told about year in and year out.
One of the major problems in evaluating the SEC is their complete garbage non-conference schedules, at least amongst the big boys. Only Georgia has had a difficult non-conference game, playing at Arizona State (another team that was overrated at the beginning of the season). Other minor non-conference games include Florida over Miami, West Virginia over Auburn, and Texas thumping Arkansas. Yet, we are supposed to accept on principle that the SEC is the best conference because they are the SEC.
Since this is a gambling blog, some deference should be given to Vegas. This week we have an opportunity to see how Vegas thinks the top teams in the Big Ten and SEC rank against the dregs of their conferences. Penn State plays Indiana (#100 in Sagarin) at home and Alabama plays Mississippi State (#101 in Sagarin) also at home. Penn State goes in as a 36 point favorite, while Alabama is only a 20.5 point favorite. It seems there might be a discrepancy here.
Or, we can look at the middle of the conferences. Ohio State is taking on Illinois (#51 Sagarin) this week in Champaign and is a 9.5 point favorite. On the other hand, Georgia is taking on Auburn (#73 Sagarin) on the Plains and is only an 8.5 point favorite. I've been ridiculed in some circles for suggesting the Ohio State is a better team than Georgia, but it appears that the oddsmakers agree with me.
My overall position is that if you aren't the Big XII South, you have no reason to beat your conference's chest. Yes, the way it has played out, the Big XII champ should play the SEC champ in the MNC game (barring anything unforseen), but it's not because the SEC is a great conference, it's because Alabama and Florida are good teams who managed to get through their schedules mostly unscathed.
From a gambling perspective, betting on anti-public SEC dogs, or even better, anti-public non-conference dogs who are playing SEC teams (helllllllo, Troy!) could be a profitable contrarian strategy for the few remaining weeks in the season.
