Record Update - 12 April 2009

The Nationals are really screwing up my universe. I realize that their current streak is likely adding value in the coming weeks, but I'd rather just have the money in my account now. Also, will the Astros score 300 runs this year? They are flipping pathetic. I'm sure I'll back them at least 50 more times this season.

Obviously, I'm passing the Brew Crew tonight. Good luck if you play them.



Leans
220p COL (Jimenez) +132 @ CHC (Lilly)
305p WAS (Cabrera) +107 vs. PHL (Moyer)

The Dodgers are getting a lot of early love over at Wagerline, but again, I don't think fading Billingsley is the answer. That Washington line is a flipping joke.

Streak for the Cash
Current Streak: 12

I am insanely lucky that I was born into a family that celebrates Easter. I obviously would have been on the -175 Flyers if I hadn't been traveling all day. I'm sure I'll be smited and lose my next Streak game.

Sunday 4/12 - AM

Yesterday was fun. My semi-square TEX/DET under was the only play to hit all day. On the bright side, the Brewers were the only side that we had to sweat. That was payback for Friday's heroics.

Plays
110p Florida +118 2x
130p Washington +179 2x
215p Houston +120 2x
Passes: Minny, KC

Standard big name fades all around. The Fish are ridiculously short against Santana. I almost made that wager a 3xer.

Leans
805p Milwaukee (Suppan) +125 vs. Cubs (Dempster)

Am I wrong in thinking that Dempster really isn't that good?

Streak for the Cash
105p New Orleans vs. Dallas
Current Streak: 12

The best look, statistically, on the board is the soccer game at 9. Everton has a non-JA 60.2% chance of covering there. I'm completely scared off of soccer and golf at 11, though. The only other halfway decent look is New Orleans, favored by 3.5 against Dallas. It looks like I'll be passing everything today and I think that is right.

[1150a UPDATE: The NO/DAL line moved from -3 to -4. The moneyline is sitting at -167, which works out to a JA 61.6% chance of winning. Combine those two things, and I think the Hornets have rounded into a play.]

Saturday 4/11

I may have some traveling to do for the holiday, so I just want to get everything in now.

Plays
105p TEX/DET U10.5 +101 3x
705p Milwaukee +128 2x
710p Kansas City +182 2x
810p PHL/COL U10 +107 2x
Passes: Wash, SD/SF Under

I didn't feel comfortable with much in the way of sides today, so I went against two big name teams with large Wagerline splits.

For the totals, everyone thinks Texas and Detroit are going to give up a ton of runs. The oddsmakers are giving an extra half run over yesterday with similar pitchers, so I think there is contrarian value there. I assume the total is so high in the Philly/Rox game because the public thinks Myers and De La Rosa are going to get rocked. Whatever the case, it's getting pounded.

Streak for the Cash
1005p San Diego vs. San Francisco
Current Streak: 11

There is nothing even close to playable early on. I'll likely be on Peavy and the Fathers tonight, but I want to see how the line moves throughout the day.

(UPDATE: San Diego is down to -163 at Pinnacle. That's good enough for me. Now that I am at 10, expect me to get a lot tighter with my plays. I'm reasonably sure that getting tighter is optimal, though I'm not sure, with 7.5 months left in the game, how tight I should be. Regardless, I feel confident that 62% without adjusting for juice is worthwhile at this point in the game.)

Good luck today.

Friday 4/10 - PM

The Saw has a chat going about golf if anyone is interested in that sort of thing.

Plays
735p Washington +208 2x
815p Houston +134 2x

Washington's line is a bit ridiculous. I stand by my comment about Hampton this morning.

Leans
110p Pittsburgh (Maholm) +105 vs. Cincinnati (Owings)

That game is the only one thinly sliced. I'll update this later once Pinny posts their lines.

Streak for the Cash
830p St. Louis vs. Columbus (NHL)
Current Streak: 10

(UPDATE: Blue star, bitches.)

The Blues are -165 with a 61.4 JA chance of winning. Easily the best play on the card tonight. The other hockey game wouldn't finish in time for any other sides to be played anyway.

Good luck tonight.

Friday 4/10 - AM

I'm not really all that sure about this early card. It was one of those cards where I felt like I had to play all three or none. I'm a degenerate, so you know what I chose.

Plays
405p Milwaukee +131 2x
410p Colorado +125 2x
410p Kansas City +158 2x
Pass: Det/Tex Under

The lines for the first two games seem short considering the pitchers they are facing. I'll also take better than 3:2 value with an underrated team against an aging pitcher who in all likelihood is no longer juicing.

Leans
730p Washington (Martis) +187 @ Atlanta (Lowe)
815p Houston (Hampton) +121 @ St. Louis (Pineiro)

I know Lowe pitched well on opening night, but isn't that a bit too much respect for him?

There might not be a pitcher in baseball who I want bet on less than Mike Hampton, but that line is awful short against an NL Central "contender."

Streak for the Cash
822a Poulter over Watson or Wilson (Masters - Front Nine)
Current Streak: 9

I found this at Bodog. Watson and Wilson are both 4/1 (+400), while Poulter is 5/12 (-240). That works out to a JA-63.8% probability. It doesn't get a whole lot better than that in Streak.

I've already admitted I don't want to get too involved with the golf. The soccer match only offers a 53.7/46.3 JA edge. The Tigers opened at -165 and have been bet down to -138. Passing seems like the best option for the afternoon with a streak this high. If Poulter screws the pooch here, I guess I'll just guess on a golf matchup.

Thursday 4/9 - AM

(UPDATE: With the cancellation of A's/Angels, there won't be any late plays from me. I'll update SftC for tonight below)

(UPDATE2: Rox and Brewers for sure tomorrow afternoon. Are the Indians possibly a play?)

There has to be like zero chance I win >60% of my plays again today. My spreadsheet actually looks halfway decent. I'm sure that will last.

Plays
110p Seattle +115 2x
135p Tampa Bay +142 3x
135p Baltimore +162 2x
140p Pittsburgh +182 2x
205p Kansas City +144 2x
Passes: Cincy, SD

These all pass the sniff test, I think. San Diego was a pass because I can't see fading Kershaw yet.

Leans
1025p Oakland (Anderson) +112 @ Angels (Good Weaver)

Not much of a late card tonight. The only other game is an unplayable Brewers/Giants tilt.

Streak for the Cash
5p Fake Miami vs. Bemidji State (NCAA Hockey)
8p Boston vs. Vermont (NCAA Hockey)
Current Streak: 8

I actually knew where to find the Tiger-Cink/Jeev line. It's at 5Dimes and the spread is -166/+136, which works out to a 59.6% juice adjusted chance of Tiger covering, though the line is probably inflated. If I could guarantee that would be over by 5, I would play it, but I'm pretty sure golf rounds take longer than three hours. Since I know jack about golf, I'll just pass all of the rest of the garbage and take the -230 Redhawks at 5.

Wednesday 4/8 - PM

My initial thought about flat betting when VW pointed it out to me was that you are likely slightly increasing your EV and slightly decreasing your variance. The main drawback, in my mind, was not getting paid off for your big dogs coming in. It took some thought, but I realized I'm still getting paid off for the dogs, just in a different way.

When you flat bet, it's like betting all of the games at the average juice of the wagers. So, you are still getting paid off for the longshots by making the average juice more lucrative. It's just not quite as intuitive to see it. Of course, I could just be worried about trivial things that other people already figured out.

Plays
705p Baltimore +143 2x
810p Seattle +147 2x
811p Kansas City +103 2x
815p Pittsburgh +156 2x
1005p Oakland -102 2x

Kansas City isn't the most anti-pub team ever, but Greinke vs. Floyd is the type of match up that was profitable last year for contrarians. Otherwise, there is nothing out of the ordinary here.

Leans
135p Tampa Bay (Garza) +145 @ Boston (Matsuzaka)
135p Baltimore (Simon) +150 vs. Yankees (Burnett)
140p Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) +172 @ St. Louis (Carpenter)
205p Kansas City (Davies) +137 @ White Sox (Danks)

The Matsuzaka fade is the most obvious play on the early board tomorrow. The Royals aren't contrarian yet, but that line still seems short.

Streak for the Cash
730p Detroit @ New York (NBA)
1005p Oakland @ Angels
Current Streak: 6

Boston is a better overall look, but I'd like to double down on the A's later, and the baseball game would have to go off extremely fast to be able to play Oakland later.

Good luck tonight.

Wednesday 4/8 - AM

I'm pretty sure working early in the morning is going to save me years on my life. I have no idea what happened to Seattle last night, but I see they gave up three in the ninth to lose. This morning, all I did was mutter a curse under my breath. Had I watched it live, things may have been broken.

Plays
1210p Washington +125 2x
340p Colorado +125 2x
Pass: Atlanta

The Nats and Rockies are a bit more anti-pub than the Braves, plus the Atlanta has won two in a row. I'm not backing any winners.

Leans
705p Baltimore (Uehara) +154 vs. Yankees (Wang)
805p Houston (Moehler) +129 vs. Cubs (Lilly)
810p Seattle (Silva) +138 @ Minnesota (Slowey)
815p Pittsburgh (Duke) +148 @ St. Louis (Wellemeyer)
1005p San Diego (Silva) +160 vs. Dodgers (Billingsley)
1005p Oakland (Eveland) -107 @ Angels (Adenhart)

I've got no desire to fade Billingsley. The Orioles and Pirates look like must plays again today.

Streak for the Cash
830a F. Gil over I. Ljubicic (Men's Tennis)
245p Chelsea (win or draw) vs. Liverpool
Current Streak: 4

I'm somewhat surprised that China (+102) is decent at curling. Apparently, the rest of Sportsnation is as well. Gil has a 53.6% juice-adjusted probability of winning the tennis match. The early first half total is pretty sharp, so I'll be playing Chelsea win or draw in the afternoon.

Good luck today.

Tuesday 4/7 - PM

Apparently, this Farnsworth chap isn't much for closing games. I'm looking forward to backing him 30-40 more times this season.

There are a couple more bookkeeping items to cover this evening. First, I'm trying to be somewhat anal about making sure I offer sides at Matchbook rather filling other's offers. If I make 500 bets during baseball season, which seems plausible, it's a swing of roughly 3.5x, which, given the record to right, might be nice to have come football season.

Also, be aware that Matchbook's baseball rake is different than other sports. If it were anything other than baseball, that swing above be 6x. Update your spreadsheets accordingly.

Finally, the flat betting concept does not explicitly deal with the Matchbook rake. I take the rake out after calculating how much to risk so the sum is 4x total (or 6x, at some point).

Plays
710p Washington +146 2x
805p Pittsburgh +146 2x
810p Seattle +100 2x
940p Colorado +143 2x
1005p Oakland +101 2x

I think this is like betting on Temple, Army, Baylor, Indiana, and Duke every week, right?

Leans
340p Colorado (Morales) +119 @ Arizona (Davis)

This line seems short to me, but I don't know a whole lot about either pitcher. I guess I'll find out tomorrow morning.

Streak for the Cash
705p Charlotte vs. Philadelphia
1010p St. Louis @ Phoenix
Current Streak: 2

The judges would also accept "Miami Heat" as an answer for tonight's 7p Streak selection. I'll be on the Blues for the late game.

Good luck tonight.

Tuesday 4/7 - AM

At the suggestion of Vegas Watch, I'm changing my wagering style for bases. For now, I think it makes more sense to use a true flat betting system. Otherwise, I'll be too dependent on my longshot dogs to come in (or heavy chalk, but I don't see myself playing much heavy chalk). That means a 2x play actually is (amount wagered) + (amount to win) = 4x. It's really not that big of a deal, but will probably save me a small amount of stress this season.

Plays
205p Kansas City +122 2x

Fading teams like the ChiSox and Angels will be common in April, I would imagine.

Leans
710p Washington (Olsen) +142 @ Florida (Johnson)
805p Houston (Rodriguez) +104 vs. Cubs (Dempster)
810p Seattle (Bedard) +103 @ Minnesota (Blackburn)
815p Pittsburgh (Snell) +140 @ St. Louis (Lohse)
940p Colorado (Jimenez) +144 @ Arizona (Haren)
1005p San Diego (Young) -113 vs. Dodgers (Wolf)
1005p Oakland (Cahill) +107 @ Anaheim (Moseley)

Washington, Pittsburgh, and Colorado are the strongest out of the bunch. The others will depend on what the baseball people think.

Streak for the Cash
245p Manchester United/Porto U2.5 goals (UEFA Champions Cup)
Current Streak: 0

I don't really want to put my streak on the line against my wager this afternoon. The under here seems anti-pub (not that I would know) and is -119 at Pinny, though the juice adjusted probability is only a little over 53%.

Good luck today.

Monday 4/6 - PM

Well, this has started splendidly.

Plays
810p Seattle +127 2x
905p Oakland +122 2x

I'm not sure how I missed Seattle today. Most non-sabermetricians are picking the Twinkies to win the AL Central and the Mariners were awful last year.

I tried floating some ridiculous Oakland number today before I left for work. That obviously panned out for me.

Leans
205p Kansas City (Meche) +126 @ White Sox (Buehrle)
405p Tampa Bay (Shields) +132 @ Boston (Beckett)

The evening posts are going to have leans for tomorrow's pre-6p games and will use Pinny lines. I'm pretty sure I like KC more than the Rays tomorrow.

Streak for the Cash
920p North Carolina vs. Michigan State
Current Streak: 3

I'll be rooting for Sparty, but come on.

The Masters
Sergio Garcia +3400 2x
Robert Allenby +10000 1x

Because why not, that's why. Of course, these are straight MoneyLine plays. Depending on the price I can find at Matchbook, I may tail The Saw's last outright as well.

Monday 4/6 - AM

I really have no idea what I am doing here, but the Wagerline and SIA numbers support me. I might actually be conservative with the afternoon games.

Plays
110p Cincinnati +150 2x
340p Colorado +161 2x
405p Baltimore +184 2x
415p Pittsburgh +172 2x
Passes: Washington, Tampa Bay

It's not going to shock me if other contrarians end up on my passes. I've absorbed a lot of information over the last two weeks, but I'm not going to be good at thinly slicing baseball lines for a few weeks.

Leans
705p Houston (Oswalt) -101 vs. Cubs (Zambrano)
905p Oakland (Braden) +135 @ Angels (Saunders)

Oakland is a must play and might be the first 3xer of baseball season. I could take or leave Houston.

Streak for the Cash
9a Norway vs. United States (Men's Curling)
110p Mets vs. Cincinnati
Current Streak: 2

Playing the Yankees is obviously dependent on the Mets/Reds getting done in a reasonable amount of time (Ed. Note: Obviously didn't happen). I'm also aware that my Streak plays are opposite my bets. If I got 1.5 wins in Streak to pick the Reds, I would.

Good luck today.

Sunday 4/5

I'm not expecting things to change a whole lot around here for bases. I should still be doing two posts a day - one before work and one after I get home. I suspect I'll be trailing Jonny and Vegas a lot more than I do in other sports, at least until I get my ears wet.

Plays
8p Atlanta +122 2x

All baseball plays will be on the moneyline unless otherwise noted. For games with positive juice, the units will be the amount risked. If the juice is negative, the units will be the amount I stand to win. This is the same way I've always done it, but it was never really important until now.

Streak for the Cash
7p Oklahoma vs. Louisville (WNCAA)
Current Streak: 0

The only other pick that makes sense is Oklahoma City, but they're only -125 at Pinny, whereas the Sooners are -175. If the women's game is over in time, I'll be on the Kings late.

Good luck tonight.