Tuesday 4/7 - AM

,
At the suggestion of Vegas Watch, I'm changing my wagering style for bases. For now, I think it makes more sense to use a true flat betting system. Otherwise, I'll be too dependent on my longshot dogs to come in (or heavy chalk, but I don't see myself playing much heavy chalk). That means a 2x play actually is (amount wagered) + (amount to win) = 4x. It's really not that big of a deal, but will probably save me a small amount of stress this season.

Plays
205p Kansas City +122 2x

Fading teams like the ChiSox and Angels will be common in April, I would imagine.

Leans
710p Washington (Olsen) +142 @ Florida (Johnson)
805p Houston (Rodriguez) +104 vs. Cubs (Dempster)
810p Seattle (Bedard) +103 @ Minnesota (Blackburn)
815p Pittsburgh (Snell) +140 @ St. Louis (Lohse)
940p Colorado (Jimenez) +144 @ Arizona (Haren)
1005p San Diego (Young) -113 vs. Dodgers (Wolf)
1005p Oakland (Cahill) +107 @ Anaheim (Moseley)

Washington, Pittsburgh, and Colorado are the strongest out of the bunch. The others will depend on what the baseball people think.

Streak for the Cash
245p Manchester United/Porto U2.5 goals (UEFA Champions Cup)
Current Streak: 0

I don't really want to put my streak on the line against my wager this afternoon. The under here seems anti-pub (not that I would know) and is -119 at Pinny, though the juice adjusted probability is only a little over 53%.

Good luck today.

5 comments:

Vegas Watch said...

"I don't really want to put my streak on the line against my wager this afternoon."

Funny, I had the exact opposite reaction. This way I'm a big winner either way!

am19psu said...

It'd be different if KC was like +150 or something (see: NYM yesterday), but -120 doesn't seem like a huge edge to me when I have a monetary stake in the other side.

Eric said...

Nobody's a winner when flippin' Kyle Farnsworth is involved.

Walter said...

Question for you: at what point in Streak should you start being more cautious about your next pick? Obviously when your streak is zero, you bet pretty much the best option in the next group of mutually-exclusive options, but when your streak gets high, you may want to not make any choice if the options are all poor. So where does that transition take place. Or, more mathematically, what do your odds need to be as a function of current streak to make it a good bet?

am19psu said...

I have no idea, mathematically, except that the probability of the streak selection winning should usually be monotonically increasing, except at the end of the month.

Not only does it depend on your streak and the amount of time left in the month, it also depends on the level of the current high streak.