The Morning After

Nothing like another eight unit loss. I'm not even really all that angry. Either this is bad luck, variance's way of telling us that 2007-08 wasn't nearly as good as we'd hoped it was (or, if you're ML, 2005-06 and 2006-07 as well), or something is wrong with the system (not contrarianism, but the way it is employed). Those are really the three options at this point.

I'm passing everything on the card tonight. I'll probably just edit this post tonight for Streak for the Cash in the evening. The two golf plays in the morning/afternoon have very little edge.

Finally, if you really wanted to see a busted bracket, go look at the one I posted before the tournament started. When Gonzaga loses to UNC tonight, I'll be done. Not like done - I don't stand a chance of winning. I mean done - I can't gain another flipping point. KPom, you have wronged many this year.

Thursday 3/26

There really isn't a whole lot to say about tonight's games that hasn't been said in the rest of Contrarian World, other than these might be the only two plays of the Sweet Sixteen. Tomorrow's card looks entertaining, but completely unplayable.

Plays
7p Purdue +6.5 -101 5x - Who else is not shocked by this result?
10p Duke -3 +108 3x

These are both the right plays given the prices available. I hope my boss understands when I come into work with a hangover tomorrow after UConn wins by seven and Duke wins by two.

Streak for the Cash
8p Chicago vs. Miami (NBA)
Current Streak: 6

That's right, folks, I've got a red star next to my name. That makes me a slightly less than mediocre player!

Also, is ESPN giving people freebies since the game is almost over? Da Bulls are 6 point favorites, obviously something that is lost 82.7% of players. I guess Miami = Dwayne Wade = WINNAR!!1!ZOMG!!1!11!LOLZ!!!111!!

Sorry for going all TBL on you. Good luck tonight.

Leans 3/26

I desperately needed last night for my mental health. I was posting stupidly at some new blog about how it could be a good idea to make -EV bets (though I'm not totally convinced for the biggest of futures that it is necessarily stupid). I was betting on CBI games. More importantly, I was unprepared for the NCAA tournament. Now I can go in with a much clearer head after last week's debacle.

Leans
7p Purdue +6.5 vs. UConn
10p Duke -2 vs. Nova

Both of these looked like slam dunks when they were released. Nothing has really happened to change my mind about them.

Streak for the Cash
830a Pat Perez lower front nine score than Charles Howell III
Current Streak: 5

Going straight from Moneyline's mouth on this one. If ML or The Saw post anything about Tiger O/U 68.5, I'll probably play it, otherwise that'll be it for the early Streak.

Record Update - 23 March 2009

Holy crap! Did I forget how to gamble this week?

I still think the best way to have a chance to win your tournament bracket every year -- after the research the NCAA does putting the brackets together -- is to take the team with the better seed in every game. That wouldn't be as fun, but it would give you the best shot to win.

Well, I guess if Peter King says it, it has to be true. I'm done with this contrarian (stuff).

In other news, I'm passing everything in the NIT/CBI/CIT tonight. I really don't care and I'm depressed after making the above graph.

Streak for Cash
7p Creighton vs. Kentucky (NIT)
1130p St Mary's vs. Davidson (NIT)
Current Streak: 1

I guess I'll take the anti-pub chalk tonight. Whatever.

Revised Sweet 16 log5 Predictions

Leans for Monday: Vermont, Crate, Wich St.

I'll update the record tonight.

Sweet 16 log5 Predictions

This isn't updated with today's information in it. I'll put up another post in the morning before work with updated probabilities. Still, if you are looking for value, this ought to help. Vegas will have a better version up soon.



You can get better than +283 on Zags ML vs. UNC at the moment, which is hilarious.

Sunday 3/22 - Evening

This has been an unmitigated disaster of an opening weekend.

My head is in circles over UNC -8.5 vs. Zags next week. The KPom line is only UNC -1.7. I'm probably going to end up on Zags.

Plays
Passes: USC, Marq

Lack of confidence plus not being entirely comfortable with these plays put them in the pass category. You can thank me later when they hit.

Streak for Cash
5p Michigan State vs. USC
8p Japan vs. USA (WBC)
Current Streak: 2

I've got no problem taking public 4-point chalk in Streak.

After the late games are over, I'll have the updated Pomeroy log5 predictions up on the site, so stop back tonight if you are interested in those sorts of things.

Sunday 3/22 - Afternoon

Wow. The only way yesterday could have possibly been worse is if Memphis, Gonzaga, or Duke outright lost.

Plays
1210p Arizona State +2 +105 5x
1210p Arizona State +2.5 -106 5x
1210p Syracuse -2.5 +102 5x
220p Wisconsin +3.5 +103 3x
240p Cleveland State +2.5 +106 5x

I was quite obviously an idiot last night. I floated Arizona State at two different numbers and they got filled at almost exactly the same time. My price on Syracuse is less than ideal.

Streak for Cash
930a NAC Breda (win or draw) vs. Ajax (Dutch Eredivisie)
1p Detroit vs. Miami
Current Streak: 0

I need to stop putting things in before I go to bed. That said, my streak is at zero, so it doesn't really matter.

Lunch and things came up, so I missed the Pens. Going with the Pistons instead.

Sunday Evening Leans
450p Marq +3.5 vs. Mizz
5p USC +4 vs. Sparty

Marquette looks like the right play, but I really don't want to wager on them at a short number.

Good luck today.

Saturday 3/21 - Evening

That UCLA game was awesome. I don't see any way that Nova doesn't come out of the East. [/sarcasm]

Plays
550p Michigan +6.5 +113 5x
810p Gonzaga -11.5 +106 5x
815p Duke -7.5 -105 3x

Michigan +6 +124 was available at Matchbook when I placed my wagers. It was mathematically correct, but I couldn't justify the mental anguish it would have caused me.

I really hope Duke wins by 8 so I can hammer them again next week in Boston.

Streak for Cash
810p Gonzaga larger margin of victory than Duke
Current Streak: 0

The rationale should be obvious given the point spreads above.

Sunday Afternoon Leans
1210p Rizo St +2 vs. Cuse
220p Wisky +4 vs. X
240p Cleve St +2.5 vs. Rizo

Those two three lines are absolutely hilarious.
UPDATE: Pinny had the times wrong. Wisky was added for tomorrow.

Good luck tonight.

Saturday 3/21 - Afternoon

Solid night last night. Not a lot going on in the afternoon.

Plays
105p UCLA +2 +103 3x
105p UCLA +2.5 -102 2x
Pass: Memphis

Obviously, I floated some UCLA last night unsure if they would be a big play. Memphis was a play at 8. At -9.5 -108, I'll pass. I'm looking forward to them winning by 15.

Streak for Cash
320p Memphis larger margin of victory than Connecticut
Current Streak: 0

I went to Betfair thinking they would have the sharpest lines for the Rugby match. That was clearly a bad idea.

Saturday Evening Leans
550p Mich +7.5 vs. OU
810p Zags -11.5 vs. W Ky
815p Duke -7.5 vs. Texas

That also happens to be the order from strongest to weakest. Good luck today.

Friday 3/20 - Evening

I felt really intelligent for bumping up my unit sizes after that first set of games.

Plays
710p Morehead State +21 +100 3x
940p Cleveland State +7.5 +101 3x
955p Wisconsin +2.5 +101 5x

All of these got filled up before halftime of the first set of games. Better prices have been/are available.

I'm trying to show some fiscal restraint, but I really like Wisky. No one is giving them a shot because they play ugly basketball and FSU beat GT and a banged up UNC to get to the ACC finals.

Streak for Cash
720p USC vs. Boston College
955p Wisconsin vs. Florida State
Current Streak: 3

BC is chicken garbage. I'm leaning toward tOSU for the late games. There is a small chance it could be Wisky.

The line movement confused me with the Buckeyes. Using straight Pomeroy, tOSU is the better choice, but I like Wisky more here from a gambling perspective.

Saturday Afternoon Leans
105p UCLA +2 vs. Nova
330p Memphis -9 vs. UMd

CBS sets the Saturday games up as 1-2-3-2, so there are only three games that tip before 5p. I'll definitely be on UCLA. Memphis is a bit more iffy.

Friday 3/20 - Afternoon

Unit size is temporarily going up. The NCAA Tournament often represents value and I want to capitalize on it. Or go broke. Either way. Standard plays will be 3x and large plays will be 5x.

Plays
1215p Stephen F Austin +11.5 -101 5x
1230p North Dakota State +10 -113 3x
3p E Tennessee State +19.5 -103 5x
3p Cornell +12.5 +101 3x

Not the price I was hoping for on the Bison. I'm going to start floating some stuff for the evening games.

I only know where one of these schools I'm wagering on is located. Also, I can only name one player total on any of the four squads. That's a solid gambling strategy right there.

Streak for Cash
1225p Tennessee vs. Oklahoma State
3p WVU/Dayton U129.5 Points
Current Streak: 1

I hate Tennessee and Bruce Pearl with a white hot passion. They are gambler's kryptonite. Fortunately, this is only "Streak" and not real money.

Did you think I was kidding about Bruce Pearl. Fantastic set out of a timeout there, coach.

The total is 126.5 at Pinny for the 'Eers/Flyers game.

Friday Evening Leans
710p Morehead +21 vs. Ville
940p Cleve St +7.5 vs. Wake
955p Wisky +2.5 vs. FSU

Wow, look. No NIT leans tonight. Also, Wisky has 5x potential tonight.

Good luck today.

Thursday 3/19 - Evening

California is terrible. It was a pretty standard opening session, though. I'm expecting more big time plays in Round 2.

I floated all of these this morning except UCLA and Illinois, so the juice may be different than what is available now. I'm going to have to put some more effort into figuring out the optimum way to work with Matchbook's new policy.

Plays
710p Minnesota +4 +106 2x
725p Akron +13.5 +104 2x
950p UCLA -8 -106 2x
955p Illinois -5 -104 2x
7p New Mexico +5 +105 2x
7p Rhode Island +1 +106 2x

Believe it or not, New Mexico was the closest to a 3x play. If it were the regular season, it definitely would have been. I'm not as comfortable making big plays in the NIT.

Streak for Cash
UPDATE: TheFiancee isn't feeling well, so I will be around a computer
7p Notre Dame vs. New Mexico
950p UCLA larger margin of victory than Illinois
Current Streak: 2

I won't be around a computer tonight, so the only play is UCLA.

Here's to hoping for a good middle.

Friday Afternoon Leans
1215p SFA +11.5 vs. Cuse
1230p NDSU +9.5 vs. Kansas
1230p USU +4.5 vs. Marq
3p ETSU +20 vs. Pitt
3p Cornell +12.5 vs. Mizz
3p WVU -9 vs. Dayton

USU and WVU made the initial list, but after checking consensus numbers quickly, there is almost no chance I play them tomorrow. SFA, NDSU, and ETSU have 3x potential tomorrow.

Good luck the rest of the night.

Thursday 3/19 - Afternoon

Sweet. March Madness begins today. Head over to Vegas Watch for a live chat (no swearing, though) at 12.

Plays
1225p CS-Northridge +19.5 +111 2x
255p California -2 +103 2x
Pass: BYU

Obviously, Matchbook's new policy favors people who float bets. If I am getting positive juice, I'm not terribly worried about it. Essentially, the North Ridge bet above is +110. However, when juice is less favorable and there is some time before the game, I'm going to float some orders. All it means is that I'm going to post the would-be bet and then edit the post as soon as it gets filled.

Streak for Cash
1230p BYU vs. Texas A&M
255p Cal vs. Maryland
Current Streak: 0

Anti-public and favored by 2.5? Yes, please. Cal, obviously, in game number two.

Thursday Evening Leans
710p Minny +4 vs. Texas
950p UCLA -8.5 vs. VCU
710p Michigan +5 vs. Clemson
955p Illinois -5.5 vs. W Ky
725p Akron +13.5 vs. Zags
7p NMex +5 @ ND (NIT)
7p URI +1 vs. PSU (NIT)

What, did you think I'd forget about the NIT tonight? New Mexico is more likely than URI for the JV tourney. All of the NCAA plays are likely, except the Skunkbears.

Good luck today.

am19psu's Bracket Revealed

Not that anyone is in the type of pool I am.

Structure: 1-3-7-16-25-40, multiplied by seed.

If you want to see what a bracket should look like if you are trying maximize the number of wins, go here.

(Note: I wrote this post before other good brackets were posted.)

Wednesday 3/18

Running a little short on time tonight. I don't have anything witty or interesting to say. You know, like normal.

Plays
8p Jacksonville +14.5 +100 2x

Is SIA not showing betting trends for the NIT?

Streak for Cash
7p Providence vs. Miami (FL) (NIT)
10p Anaheim vs. Nashville (NHL)
Current Streak: 1

I actually like the Thunder a bit more as contrarian chalk, but I want to take some Quack later.

Thursday Afternoon Leans
1220p LSU -2 vs. Butler
1230p BYU -2.5 vs. Texas A&M
1225p CS-N +20 vs. Memphis
3p Cal -1.5 vs. UMd

At first glance, that seems like a lot of chalk to eat, but looking at last year's profitable opening weekend, short chalk paid off quite well (7-2 ATS). Of course, as the entire 2008-09 gambling season has shown, past results are not well correlated with future events.

Seeding Matters, Part 2

Yesterday, I discussed whether being a top seed affects your chances of winning the national championship and the results were pretty clear that it was. What was less clear was why. Is the draw from a 2-seed that much more difficult to navigate than a 1-seed? It turns out that this year, more than most, that the twos' draws are ridiculously more difficult.

Vegas already touched on this today, but the 6-line is incredibly tough this year. UCLA, WVU, Arizona State, and Marquette most likely represent the toughest 6-line the committee has ever put together, at least from a pythagorean perspective. Those 6-seeds - particularly UCLA, WVU, and ASU - absolutely destroy the probabilities of their respective twos and threes making it to Detroit.

To illustrate how strong the sixes are, I re-seeded each of the regions by Pomeroy pyth and simulated how the tournament would play out, along with calculating the change in probability from the real bracket to this simulated one. The results are below.

Midwest:



West:



South:




East:



I had really hoped to show that teams that were underseeded saw their probabilities for winning go up if properly seeded, and vice versa. What I really showed was how important it was that UCLA, WVU, and ASU were underseeded. Those teams that are unlucky enough to face those three early on see their win probabilties sky rocket when moved away. Likewise, teams that would be matched up with the sixes would see their win probabilities fall if the committee used Pomeroy for developing the S-Curve.

What does it all mean? Seeding is important, obviously. However, if the committee significant underseeds or overseeds a team, it can have drastic effects down the bracket for other schools' chances of cutting down the nets.

Seeding Matters

Initially, I had planned to write up some leans posts for the first round of the tournament. Apparently, I was slow on the draw. But, that's ok. There is something else I wanted to address.

Yesterday, nvr1983, from the excellent college hoops blog Rush The Court, claimed in his 3:55 update that a #1 seed is more likely to advance to the Final Four (or Sweet 16) because they are a better team than the #2. While certainly that can and does play the primary role, seeding itself is a secondary factor.

Below are the probabilities of winning the national championship for all eight of the 1-seeds and 2-seeds and what their probabilities would be if we switched them within the region, leaving everything else the same. For example, in the Midwest, the value of Louisville 1-Seed is their current chance of winning it all. Louisville 2-Seed represents the chance of winning the national title from Michigan State's side of the bracket. Sparty 2-Seed is Michigan State's current chances of winning the national title. Sparty 1-Seed would be Michigan State's probability of cutting down the nets if they had Louisville's draw. I think that makes sense.

Midwest:


West:


South:


East:


Since some teams are better than others (cough, memphisoklahoma, cough), it's better to look at the percent differences to gauge how much of an effect seeding has on a team's chances.

The difference is most striking in the Midwest. Since Louisville's draw is so much easier than Sparty's, Michigan State's championship probabilities go up by a third and the Pitinos' chances go down by 15%.

Leans for tomorrow's NIT games will be up tomorrow morning.

Streak for Cash
8p New Orleans vs. Houston
Current Streak: 0

NCAA Tournament log5 Predictions

Before the conference tournaments, I posted the log5 predictions for each of the eight majors. These are the probabilities of each team advancing to the next round. For example, the number under Sweet 16 is the probability of advancing from the Sweet 16 to the Elite 8.

The blue and green columns are the fair value price for getting to the Final Four and winning the championship, respectively. Future bets with better juice than the numbers below are likely good wagers.

Keep in mind, this is based off the Pomeroy pyth metric and is not altered in any way. As before, Vegas Watch will do this better later in the week with sportsbook adjustments.

Midwest:


West:


South:


East: