Seeding Matters

Initially, I had planned to write up some leans posts for the first round of the tournament. Apparently, I was slow on the draw. But, that's ok. There is something else I wanted to address.

Yesterday, nvr1983, from the excellent college hoops blog Rush The Court, claimed in his 3:55 update that a #1 seed is more likely to advance to the Final Four (or Sweet 16) because they are a better team than the #2. While certainly that can and does play the primary role, seeding itself is a secondary factor.

Below are the probabilities of winning the national championship for all eight of the 1-seeds and 2-seeds and what their probabilities would be if we switched them within the region, leaving everything else the same. For example, in the Midwest, the value of Louisville 1-Seed is their current chance of winning it all. Louisville 2-Seed represents the chance of winning the national title from Michigan State's side of the bracket. Sparty 2-Seed is Michigan State's current chances of winning the national title. Sparty 1-Seed would be Michigan State's probability of cutting down the nets if they had Louisville's draw. I think that makes sense.





Since some teams are better than others (cough, memphisoklahoma, cough), it's better to look at the percent differences to gauge how much of an effect seeding has on a team's chances.

The difference is most striking in the Midwest. Since Louisville's draw is so much easier than Sparty's, Michigan State's championship probabilities go up by a third and the Pitinos' chances go down by 15%.

Leans for tomorrow's NIT games will be up tomorrow morning.

Streak for Cash
8p New Orleans vs. Houston
Current Streak: 0


ilike#s said...

very well done, thank you for doing all this.

is there any way you could send me the log5 file you made? i know you put a ton of work into it.

am19psu said...

Sure. Drop me an email at am19psu-at-gmail-dot-com and I'll pass it along.