Seeding Matters

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Initially, I had planned to write up some leans posts for the first round of the tournament. Apparently, I was slow on the draw. But, that's ok. There is something else I wanted to address.

Yesterday, nvr1983, from the excellent college hoops blog Rush The Court, claimed in his 3:55 update that a #1 seed is more likely to advance to the Final Four (or Sweet 16) because they are a better team than the #2. While certainly that can and does play the primary role, seeding itself is a secondary factor.

Below are the probabilities of winning the national championship for all eight of the 1-seeds and 2-seeds and what their probabilities would be if we switched them within the region, leaving everything else the same. For example, in the Midwest, the value of Louisville 1-Seed is their current chance of winning it all. Louisville 2-Seed represents the chance of winning the national title from Michigan State's side of the bracket. Sparty 2-Seed is Michigan State's current chances of winning the national title. Sparty 1-Seed would be Michigan State's probability of cutting down the nets if they had Louisville's draw. I think that makes sense.

Midwest:


West:


South:


East:


Since some teams are better than others (cough, memphisoklahoma, cough), it's better to look at the percent differences to gauge how much of an effect seeding has on a team's chances.

The difference is most striking in the Midwest. Since Louisville's draw is so much easier than Sparty's, Michigan State's championship probabilities go up by a third and the Pitinos' chances go down by 15%.

Leans for tomorrow's NIT games will be up tomorrow morning.

Streak for Cash
8p New Orleans vs. Houston
Current Streak: 0

2 comments:

ilike#s said...

very well done, thank you for doing all this.

is there any way you could send me the log5 file you made? i know you put a ton of work into it.

am19psu said...

Sure. Drop me an email at am19psu-at-gmail-dot-com and I'll pass it along.