Conference Tournament log5 Projections - Part 1

Since the Atlantic 10, Big East, Big XII, MWC, and Pac 10 have their conference tournament brackets out already, I figured it would be instructive to put together the probabilities of each team advancing in their brackets. The numbers in the graphs below show the log5 likelihood of each team advancing in each round of their conference tournament. The last column converts that probability into juice. If you can find futures with better juice than the fair value, that likely represents a good bet.

Vegas Watch will do this better later in the week. My numbers will differ slightly than his because he is adjusting the Pomeroy numbers subjectively, which is probably a good thing from a wagering perspective. My results come straight from the "Pyth" column in Pomeroy's standings.

Atlantic 10:

Big East:

Big XII:


Pac 10:

I'll do the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC tomorrow once their conference tournaments are set.


Erich said...

I'm curious how you ran these numbers... did you use an iterative simulation, like a monte carlo model?

Your results are pretty close to what I get through a monte carlo approach

am19psu said...

I did it through conditional probabilities. On some of the Big East ones, my formula was three lines long. I spent probably five hours the last 2 days putting this together, but at least I have it for the future now.

I'm assuming as your steps -> infinity, your numbers will approach mine.