Conference Tournament log5 Projections - Part 2

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In Part 1, I posted the A10, Big East, Big XII, MWC, and Pac 10. Today, the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten have posted their brackets. Recall, juice better than fair value is likely a good wager.

ACC:


Big Ten:


SEC:


The Penn State odds make me sad.

As if you had to ask, I'll have the odds for March Madness posted Sunday night.

6 comments:

Black n Gold said...

No leans in the crapfest conference tourney games tonight?

am19psu said...

Honestly, I just got home from work and haven't even really looked at the lines yet.

It looks like everyone else was on the Mocs, but I know next to nothing about the SoCon except Davidson is overrated, which isn't getting me anywhere tonight.

I'll have a post up later with plays, if I have any.

Eric said...

But CoC just beat Davidson.

Thus, CoC > Davidson >>>>>> the rest of the SoCon.

I think that makes up for not knowing anything else.

Also, the PSU odds are just staggering. My god, this team is possibly one win over laughably bad Indiana away from an at-large. How sad.

am19psu said...

Also, the PSU odds are just staggering. My god, this team is possibly one win over laughably bad Indiana away from an at-large. How sad.

Maybe I should have put the homerism tag in? I'm sad because with their terrible OOC schedule, I think they probably need 2 to get in. And they only have a 16% chance of doing that.

Eric said...

"Maybe I should have put the homerism tag in?"

I knew (although it's, um, pretty apparent). I've got the same homerism. I've said it to my PSU friends all season that I cannot fathom how they've come this close. That's kind of where my comment was coming from.

Can you re-run the log5 numbers to see what their chances would have been if they had won Saturday and claimed the 2 seed in the tourney? Just a guess, but I'd bet they'd still be under 5%.

am19psu said...

I knew (although it's, um, pretty apparent). I've got the same homerism.

I figured as much once I thought about your comment more. Everyone else in the contrarian blogosphere has been pu-puing PSU over the last week or so (with good reason), so I just assumed you were too.

Can you re-run the log5 numbers to see what their chances would have been if they had won Saturday and claimed the 2 seed in the tourney? Just a guess, but I'd bet they'd still be under 5%.

PSU's log5 with 2 seed, assuming same pyth (it would likely only change a few ten-thousandths):

RD1: 100%
QF: 45.484%
SF: 12.952%
F: 2.697%