2009 CFB Preview: Penn State

Moneyline already did Penn State, better than me, I'm sure.

Penn State is the other flawed favorite for the Big Ten title. They have to replace three starters on the offensive line, all three wide receivers and the entire secondary. Again, the Nittany Lions benefit from a generally down Big Ten, but have potential road blocks in Illinois and Michigan State. Penn State joins USC and Rutgers, so far, as teams that should be favored in every game.

Penn State does benefit from a weak non-conference schedule. They should be favored by three touchdowns or more in every game. Interestingly, Penn State has a better chance than tOSU to go undefeated, but should be installed as the second favorite to win the Big Ten. That's what happens when you don't play USC.

If you are high on the Nittany Lions, then the 40-1 available at Cal Neva a month ago was an absolute steal. Right now, you can get them at 30-1 offshore, which still isn't a bad deal from the median lines. Like most teams with an integer win total, there is no value in Penn State at nine.


Anonymous said...

I don't know about you but the most exciting part of PSU's season will be Illinois +2.5 after PSU opens the season on a 275-0 run.

am19psu said...

I hate you.

I already have that marked as a loss.

Mike Honcho said...

I've noticed that most of the people I respect from RMMB are a little high on Illinois. I know about the unlucky turnovers last year and the probable regression to the mean in that department, but does anybody give any weight to the FO guys being pretty down on Illinois. They project them for 4 wins and just barely ahead of Indiana.

And I'm talking about a season long perspective, not a game by game perspective. Obviously they'll be some spots where we load up on them during the season.

am19psu said...

I'm showing my ignorance here, but what kind of track record does FO have in college? Last I knew, they only used the guy from Rock M Nation to talk in (statistical) generalities. Some of his stuff is good, some of it not so much. I'm usually open to new ideas, but I have hard time discounting what Steele and Doc Saturday think.

Mike Honcho said...

Yeah they haven't really established much of a track record yet in college football. But for this year they used a combination of Bill Connelly's stuff (Rock M Nation) and Brian Fremeau's FEI index(from bcftoys.