2009 CFB Preview: Penn State

Moneyline already did Penn State, better than me, I'm sure.

Penn State is the other flawed favorite for the Big Ten title. They have to replace three starters on the offensive line, all three wide receivers and the entire secondary. Again, the Nittany Lions benefit from a generally down Big Ten, but have potential road blocks in Illinois and Michigan State. Penn State joins USC and Rutgers, so far, as teams that should be favored in every game.



Penn State does benefit from a weak non-conference schedule. They should be favored by three touchdowns or more in every game. Interestingly, Penn State has a better chance than tOSU to go undefeated, but should be installed as the second favorite to win the Big Ten. That's what happens when you don't play USC.





If you are high on the Nittany Lions, then the 40-1 available at Cal Neva a month ago was an absolute steal. Right now, you can get them at 30-1 offshore, which still isn't a bad deal from the median lines. Like most teams with an integer win total, there is no value in Penn State at nine.

2009 CFB Preview: Ohio State

Moneyline already did Ohio State, better than me, I'm sure.

The fact that Ohio State is highly regarded this year is more proof that the Big Ten is down. They lost over half their starters and are relying on a guy with the throwing motion of a shotputter to account for 75% of their offense and yet are regarded as a slightly better option than Penn State, which has problems of their own.



Don't get me wrong, tOSU should still be good, but they are not the juggernaut of years past.





The median lines show no value on the 9.5 win total and there is zero chance I would lay 14-1 on the Bucks to win the MNC this year. Still, they'll likely finish first or second in the Big Ten, so it should be a decent year for Buckeye fans.

2009 CFB Preview: Iowa

Iowa has been, along with Michigan State, a consensus pick in the second tier of the conference. They probably overachieved a little bit last year. They didn't really dominate anybody, and played down to competition against Pitt. Still, they did beat then undefeated Penn State and won the Outback Bowl against South Carolina.



Iowa schedule sets up unfavorably, having to go to Happy Valley and Columbus. Road games against Wisconsin and Michigan State don't help matters, either.





Illinois is probably a smidge better than Iowa, based on the lines set so far. On top of that, Illinois plays better non-conference games. There is no value in either Iowa's futures or their integer win total of eight.

2009 CFB Preview: Illinois

Everytime I think about Illinois, all I hear in my head is Brent Musburger saying, "Here come the ill-IIIIIIII-ni!" Which has nothing to do with gambling.

Illinois is a darkhorse pick to win the Big Ten this year, and with good reason. I really should have picked them over Michigan State as my Big Ten future. They'll be favored in every game this year, except Penn State and Ohio State and their chances of winning at home against Penn State are near 100%.



After running the numbers, I like Illinois a lot more. I have a feeling I'll be on them at least against tOSU and would be on the Illini against PSU, if I wagered on PSU games.





It's been a month (already?!) since I was out in Vegas, but if 200-1 was still available at Boyd's, I'd pick it up in a second. That has value at the median line, which has been rare so far in this series.

If you believe my lines and have money at 5Dimes the over has value. It is set at 7.5 -140. There is some time value of money concerns, but this is one of the best bets this series has uncovered so far.

2009 CFB Preview: Big Ten

The books agree with the common perception that the Big Ten is a two horse race this year, with Ohio State and Penn State battling for the automatic BCS bid. I was slightly surprised by some of the other futures odds though. Illinois and Wisconsin, two teams that supposedly underachieved last year, are both marked as contenders for the third place spot in the Big Ten. Illinois doesn't surprise me as much, because they suffered from unlucky turnover problems. I readily admit though that I thought Wisconsin was garbage coming into the year. That's why I'm doing these posts.



The spreads agree much more closely with the futures in the Big Ten than any of the other conferences covered so far. The books seem to think that things will be academic this year.



As good as I felt about the Georgia Tech future in the ACC preview, I feel the opposite about Sparty. When I was in Vegas, I had the impression they were the clear cut #3 team in the conference. I like Dantonio as a coach and he has pulled in good recruiting classes. Unfortunately, the numbers aren't supporting my assumptions.



It's somewhat surprising that tOSU has a higher win expectancy than PSU when tOSU has to play USC in Game 2. The schedules are similar otherwise with the Bucks missing Sparty and Northwestern, while PSU has Wisky and Purdue rotating off.