2009 CFB Preview: Cincinnati

Cincinnati is going to take a step back this year, though that's not really much of a surprise. Either the 2008 edition of the Bearcats or the 2004 Pitt team was the weakest conference champion of the BCS Era. Cincinnati only made the Orange Bowl last year thanks to luck and the mediocrity of the competition. Arguments could be made that WVU, Rutgers, USF, and Pitt were all better last year. Those same arguments will be true this year, too.

Oregon State and Fresno State were the hardest lines to come up with. I've got the relative difference between those two teams at eleven*, but couldn't really figure out where Cincinnati fell in between them. Eventually, I settled on Oregon State being six points better and Fresno five points worse. Feel free to disagree with me there.

*Boise St -9.5 @ Fresno St
Boise St -4 vs. Oregon
Oregon -6 vs. Oregon St

Even in the best case scenario, Cincinnati is more likely to have a record below .500 than above. The worst case scenario would be funny, only because of the Brian Kelly articles that might surface once he is no longer a hot name. I know there are people up in Michigan that aren't exactly enamored with the guy.

Unfortunately, there are no over/unders set up for Cincinnati. If you can find one, I'd bet under is the play, coming off the Orange Bowl berth last year.

(Thanks to xlssports for the Monte Carlo Calculator)