Week 5 Teams Update

It looks like Arizona is coming on strong as the team I'm losing the most money with.



Still, go Natinals.

Record Update - 10 May 2009

The week featured another weekday death march, but NORM! made everything all right for the weekend. And by all right, I mean I managed not to blow my entire bankroll.



Leans
710p ATL (Lowe) +180 @ NYM (Santana)
1015p WAS (Cabrera) +132 @ SF (Johnson)

Every fifth day, I play Daniel Cabrera. The Nats are 0-6 in his starts. Sooner or later, they have to win one. Or at least stop starting him.

Sunday 5/10

I had nice day at Atlantic City yesterday. I played blackjack well and threw a guy completely on tilt in NLHE by reading his bluff with 775 on the board and only AK underneath. I was pleased with myself.

Plays
135p Baltimore +136 2x
135p BAL/NYY u9.5 -107 2x
310p Colorado -112 2x
405p Oakland -108 2x
410p Washington +155 2x
410p SF/LAD +117 o8 2x
Passes: Cincy, Minny

The Washington play is marginal. I like Scherzer, but it's not like Olsen has pitched poorly.

Streak for the Cash
335p Los Angeles @ Houston
730p Boston vs. Carolina
Current Streak: 1

It's pretty unlikely that I end up at 4 today, but I think this is the best path to get there: AC Milan-Getzlaf-Boston.

I was ignoring the games that I wouldn't get to in an effort to get to four games played. However, the Lakers and Bruins are too good to pass up, even at a low streak. I guess I should check RMMB before I make my morning posts.

Good luck.

Saturday 5/9 - AM

Wow, a winning day. How did that happen?

UPDATE (12p): Flip it. I'm bored and going to Atlantic City for the day.

Plays
405p Oakland -103 2x
705p Balitmore +138 2x
710p Cincinnati +100 2x
810p Colorado +117 2x
Pass: PIT/NYM o9

Leans
705p BAL (Eaton) +146 vs. NYY (Hughes)
710p CIN (Harang) +101 vs. STL (Lohse)
810p COL (De La Rosa) 109 vs. FLA (Johnson)

Would it be square of me to fade Saunders with Grienke? I mean, he has to be greater than 55% to win, doesn't he?

None of the totals look all that great to me at the moment. I was hoping the LAA/KC and SEA/MIN totals would have been higher. Clearly the books don't want to mess around with those pitching matchups.

Streak for the Cash
925a K. Perry over P. Harrington (TPC Sawgrass - Front 9)
505p Dallas vs. Denver
Current Streak: 0

The only reason this post is going up now is because of early SFTC action. Perry is a -120/+100 favorite at 5Dimes, so the edge is slight, but again I want to maximize my plays.

I'd like to play the Tiger total, then move on to Dallas, grab Mo Williams, and finish with Vancouver, but I think that is unlikely to happen. More likely, I'll end up with Boston-Minny-Vancouver.

Friday 5/8

Thing I learned today: when not correcting for strength of schedule, a team's second order record is the proper predictor of record. Thanks, Vegas.

Plays
705p Tampa Bay -105 2x
705p NYY/BAL u9.5 +100 2x
710p Cincinnati -109 2x
810p TEX/CHW u11 +104 2x
1010p Oakland +108 3x

I probably shouldn't be making any 3x plays with my bankroll, but that Oakland line is a candidate for most contrarian of the year-so-far.

Leans
110p PIT (Maholm) +164 @ NYM (Maine)
340p SF (Sanchez) +144 @ LAD (Stults)
405p OAK (Gallagher) -107 vs. TOR (Tallet)

There might be some totals thrown in there, as well, but I'd rather look at consensus numbers tomorrow before settling.

Streak for the Cash
705p Orlando vs. Boston
1010p Kansas City @ Angels
Current Streak: 0

There are three outstanding looks in the early evening, but Orlando is clearly the best. I guess the Lakers will be the late choice, but an anti-public Meche isn't bad either if the NBA game runs late.

Good luck.

Leans 5/8

Leans
705p TB (Shields) -106 @ BOS (Penny)
710p PIT (Karstens) +158 @ NYM (Niese)
710p CIN (Cueto) -123 vs. STL (Pineiro)
805p MIL (Bush) -124 vs. CHC (Wells)
1005p OAK (Outman) +100 vs. TOR (Richmond)

This isn't the greatest of cards and I'm probably stretching with some of those chalk leans. For once, Washington doesn't stand out as a play with Petit on the mound for the DBacks.

Streak for the Cash
820a J. Furyk over K. Perry (TPC Sawgrass - Front 9)
130p S. Garcia over Z. Johnson (TPC Sawgrass)
Current Streak: 0

Furyk is an extremely slight favorite over Perry, but it's all about maximizing plays when your streak is low.

If ML or the Saw have an opinion on the golf prop, it might change my mind for the afternoon, but at the moment, I am looking at Rio W/D (JA 56.4%) as the play.

Thursday 5/7 - PM

At least that total came close to hitting.

Plays
705p Cleveland +153 2x
805p Houston +135 2x
1010p Washington +138 2x

I'd like to play Zimmermann for a triple, but, pending the A's, I only have 14x left.

Streak for the Cash
805p Chicago vs. Vancouver
Current Streak: 1

I doubt the hockey game will be over in time or I'll still be awake, but if it is and I was, I'd take Aaron Hill in the late prop.

(UPDATE: Or, you could do the safe, smart thing and take the Wings.)

Thursday 5/7 - AM

Running behind this morning...

Plays
210p SEA/KC o9 -111 2x
335p Oakland -107 2x

I need to start floating numbers at night.

Streak for the Cash
850a L. Donald over I. Poulter (TPC Sawgrass - Front 9)
1210p Atlanta vs. Florida
345p Arizona @ San Diego
Current Streak: 0

Donald is a pure follow. Pinnacle is down, but there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of value this afternoon.

Good luck.

Wednesday 5/6

Something has been bothering about betting the Nationals every night, and I think I have it figured out. I'm currently 5-14-1 -12.47x. If I get much deeper in the hole on them, I question if I'll be able to win it back if they get hot. I mean, if they reel off five in a row, won't they get more public support?

Obviously, nothing can be done about the past, but it's not like the future bets on Washington are independent for the reasons described above. Also, it doesn't mean I'm done betting on the Nats. If they can play something like 47% ball the rest of the way (giving them 72 wins total, for what it's worth) and randomize the win pattern, I'll be quite happy. Of course, the odds of that happening are long, especially when Kip Freaking Wells is their best fireman.

Plays
705p Cleveland +160 2x
805p Houston +136 2x
1005p Oakland -109 2x
1010p Washington +192 2x
Pass: TEX/OAK u9

Is it 2003 and someone forgot to tell me? How is Mike Hampton only +136 against the freaking Cubs? At least the books put up a close-to-fair number on the Nats game for once.

Streak for the Cash
805p Boston vs. Orlando
Current Streak: 2

Boston is easily the number one play on the board tonight. If Boston is over soon enough/I can stay up that late, the Lakers seem like a solid play. Artest only averaged 6 fgm/g and the line is 10.

Good luck.

Leans 5/6

Yet another miserable night. It's not like I'm missing by much, and that's the frustrating thing. The Nats, Indians, and TEX/SEA all should have covered, and I missed Atlanta and Arizona by a total of three runs. I could look at the bright side and say with 21x left in my account, I'm only a few more bad nights away from concentrating on football for the rest of the summer.

Leans
805p HOU (Hampton) +140 vs. CHC (Harden)
810p KC (Ponson) -120 vs.SEA (Silva)
840p COL (Jimenez) -138 vs. SF (Johnson)
1005p OAK (Giese) -122 vs. TEX (Feldman)
1010p WAS (Cabrera) +180 @ LAD (Kershaw)

Washington, as usual, is the only sure thing on this list. The Oakland lean is probably subject to change. I'm pretty sure when I looked last night, Eveland was supposed to be starting tonight.

Streak for the Cash
245p Barcelona to advance over Chelsea (UEFA Champions League)
Current Streak: 1

I would have played Kidd last night had I not fallen asleep before the Braves game was over. It doesn't really matter because that would have missed, too.

It took me forever to figure out what the rules were for these teams to qualify and I still don't understand it. If I had went to Pinny first, I would have seen that Barca is a -155/+145 favorite to advance. That would have made it a lot easier.

Tuesday 5/5 - PM

That's a solid pitching staff right there. Jim Bowden and Jose Rijo were stealing money from the Natinals, considering their efforts in putting together a bullpen. I mean, Kip Wells is seriously the best option right now?

Using the World Series Game last year as precedent, I assume the Nats wager gets graded as a push once they call the game?

Plays
710p Atlanta -115 2x
815p Philadelphia +121 2x
815p PHL/STL u8.5 +114 2x
1010p Arizona +112 3x

I decided the Phils side was good, too. It'll be real good when Myers can't get out of the second inning.

Leans
As usual, I'll add these later tonight. Too much going on to look right now.

Streak for the Cash
710p Atlanta vs. Mets
Current Streak: 0

Early on, there are a couple different options, but if I feel good enough to bet on Atlanta at -115, I should feel good enough to play them in Streak.

For late night, Jason Kidd averages 8.7 apg and the line sits at Denver -6.5 -108, while Detroit is -127 to beat Anaheim in the late hockey game. Using the half point calculator, Denver would be -8.5 +130.2. It's close as to which is better, but after adjusting for juice, I think JKidd is the better option.

Tuesday 5/5 - AM

I shouldn't complain too much, but it's not like Indians made life easy last night. At least when I bet on Temple or the Raiders, they get the snot kicked out of them from the start.

Plays
1235p Washington +110 2x
1235p Cleveland +112 2x
440p TEX/SEA u8 -110 2x
Passes: Baltimore, San Fran

Ultimately, I decided to play the Tribe and pass the other two because Toronto is more overvalued right now than either Tampa Bay or the Cubs, in my opinion.

The price on the total is complete garbage, but I don't have time to wait around to get a better one filled.

Leans
710p ATL (Kawakami) -117 vs. NYM (Hernandez)
815p PHL (Myers)/STL (Wainwright) u8.5
1010p ARZ (Scherzer) +118 @ LAD (Bad Weaver)

Scherzer is the only definite there. I know the Dodgers are generally better than the DBacks, but I would think Scherzer would get a little more credit for being much better than Jeff Weaver.

Streak for the Cash
245p Manchester United vs. Arsenal (UEFA Champions Cup)
Current Streak: 4

There really aren't angles today. If I were still at zero, I would probably go Beck, then ManU, but I see no reason to risk even a miniscule streak on complete coin flips.

That was short-sighted. When I checked the line and saw ManU pk -112, I thought it was a coin flip to win, and it is, but that is a probability conditioned on a victor existing. Using the lines with a draw, there is a JA-66% chance of ManU not losing (Arsenal would be 63.3%). Clearly, given the rules of Streak, this is something to consider. There is obviously some line of demarcation where this isn't a good bet. For example, if I had an 80% chance of not losing, but only a 1% chance of winning, I wouldn't take it. In this example though, with a 66% chance of not losing and a 36.6% chance of winning, I think it is worth it.

Good luck today.

Monday 5/4

If you get a chance, go check out the recap of the A's/M's game yesterday. What a flipping joke.

Plays
705p Washington -141 3x
705p Cleveland +104 2x
815p Philadelphia +123 2x
1005p Colorado -111 2x
1005p Oakland +105 2x
1010p Arizona +135 2x

I debated whether to make the Phils a 3x play, but given my current bankroll, I figured it best to play it conservative.

Leans
1235p WAS (Olsen) vs. HOU (Oswalt)
220p SF (Lincecum) -109 @ CHC (Marshall)

I'm surprised the Wagerline numbers aren't there for Padilla. He sucks and Bedard is good. I should rename the blog "That Natinals line is a joke," because every day the oddsmakers keep setting these ridiculous numbers for them. Maybe the books haven't lost enough money on them yet.

Streak for the Cash
7p Washington vs. Pittsburgh
1035p Yao Ming more points + rebounds than Kobe Bryant points
Current Streak: 3

Tonight's streak card is really awful, which I guess means the Streakmaster did a good job. I'll probably try to go with Yao late.

Good luck tonight.

Leans 5/4

That was one of my most painful gambling days I can remember. Losing every baseball game by one run plus having my streak shattered really sucks.

Leans
7p ATL (Vazquez) -113 vs. NYM (Maine)
705p WAS (Lannan) -136 vs. HOU (Moehler)
705p MIN (Liriano) +117 @ DET (Jackson)
707p CLE (Carmona) +105 @ TOR (Tallet)
1005p COL (De La Rosa) -115 @ SD (Correia)
1010p ARZ (Davis) +124 @ LAD (Stults)

Who are they trying to kid with the Natinals line?

Streak for the Cash
245p Empoli (win or draw) vs. Bari (Italian Serie B)
Current Streak: 1

Unless the line changes, I'll be on Empoli win or draw this afternoon. Right now they are about 53.5% juice adjusted, which is very little edge, but whatever, I'm at zero.