Tuesday 5/5 - AM

,
I shouldn't complain too much, but it's not like Indians made life easy last night. At least when I bet on Temple or the Raiders, they get the snot kicked out of them from the start.

Plays
1235p Washington +110 2x
1235p Cleveland +112 2x
440p TEX/SEA u8 -110 2x
Passes: Baltimore, San Fran

Ultimately, I decided to play the Tribe and pass the other two because Toronto is more overvalued right now than either Tampa Bay or the Cubs, in my opinion.

The price on the total is complete garbage, but I don't have time to wait around to get a better one filled.

Leans
710p ATL (Kawakami) -117 vs. NYM (Hernandez)
815p PHL (Myers)/STL (Wainwright) u8.5
1010p ARZ (Scherzer) +118 @ LAD (Bad Weaver)

Scherzer is the only definite there. I know the Dodgers are generally better than the DBacks, but I would think Scherzer would get a little more credit for being much better than Jeff Weaver.

Streak for the Cash
245p Manchester United vs. Arsenal (UEFA Champions Cup)
Current Streak: 4

There really aren't angles today. If I were still at zero, I would probably go Beck, then ManU, but I see no reason to risk even a miniscule streak on complete coin flips.

That was short-sighted. When I checked the line and saw ManU pk -112, I thought it was a coin flip to win, and it is, but that is a probability conditioned on a victor existing. Using the lines with a draw, there is a JA-66% chance of ManU not losing (Arsenal would be 63.3%). Clearly, given the rules of Streak, this is something to consider. There is obviously some line of demarcation where this isn't a good bet. For example, if I had an 80% chance of not losing, but only a 1% chance of winning, I wouldn't take it. In this example though, with a 66% chance of not losing and a 36.6% chance of winning, I think it is worth it.

Good luck today.

7 comments:

Maggie said...

stop losing my money.

Jonny said...

Cleveland's bullpen is phenomenal.

JBD said...

I don't know whose bullpen I despise more...Cleveland or Washington.

JBD said...

What are you thinking in SFTC later? I'll probably be going with the hockey under.

Eric said...

The only reason Washington's bullpen can be despised today is the Houston bullpen doesn't want to be any better.

am19psu said...

I am so pissed off with gambling right now. Baseball is far less fun for me than football or college hoops. Maybe if I stopped betting on Washington I would cheer up - like either one of those is going to happen.

JBD said...

I have a buddy who lives in DC and is actually a big Nats fan...he thinks I have lost my mind due to my twice weekly ranting phone calls / emails. Seriously...an 11th inning push?? I guess I should be happy with it.