Well, this ought to be neat. After a solid three day run back on the East Coast, yesterday blew ass. How did I respond? By putting 22x in play (roughly half my bankroll). Good for me.
NCAAB
7p Florida Intl +6 +102 3x
8p Detroit +5 +105 2x
8p UL Monroe +6 -101 2x
830p Arizona -10 +102 3x
9p San Jose State +2.5 +106 3x
10p Washington State -2 -106 3x
1030p Washington -7 +100 2x
1030p Arizona State -21 +127 2x
NCAAF
815p Oklahoma +5 -106 2x
The fact that the line has begun to fall again is what finally sold me on the Sooners. My (complete and utter) guess is public money drove the line up initially after the Fiesta Bowl, and now sharps are knocking it back down. I still don't really like this play, but I think it is right.
Showing posts with label ncaaf bowl season. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ncaaf bowl season. Show all posts
Monday 1/5
,
Labels:
ncaab week 3,
ncaaf bowl season,
plays
NCAAB
William and Mary +3.5 +101 2x
Idaho +13.5 -105 2x
VCU -24 -108 2x
La Tech+13.5 +6 +109 2x
NCAAF
Ohio State +8 +106 3x
Between the Big Ten sucking and Texas out for revenge, there is no chance this bet hits.
William and Mary +3.5 +101 2x
Idaho +13.5 -105 2x
VCU -24 -108 2x
La Tech
NCAAF
Ohio State +8 +106 3x
Between the Big Ten sucking and Texas out for revenge, there is no chance this bet hits.
Monday 12/29
,
Labels:
ncaaf bowl season,
plays
As you may have guessed, I'm headed to LA for the next week. I'm going to attempt to post all of my plays, like:
Northwestern +12 -103 2x
But I may not get the chance to post them all in time. If nothing changes between now and then, the rest of my New Year's week plays will be as follows:
2x - Oregon, Nevada, Vandy
3x - Minny, Sparty, Ole Miss, Utah
While I am on vacation, I'm not planning on looking at college basketball, so the week starting Jan 5th will be Week 3 for blog purposes.
Enjoy the New Year.
Northwestern +12 -103 2x
But I may not get the chance to post them all in time. If nothing changes between now and then, the rest of my New Year's week plays will be as follows:
2x - Oregon, Nevada, Vandy
3x - Minny, Sparty, Ole Miss, Utah
While I am on vacation, I'm not planning on looking at college basketball, so the week starting Jan 5th will be Week 3 for blog purposes.
Enjoy the New Year.
Saturday 12/27
,
Labels:
ncaab week 2,
ncaaf bowl season,
plays
Kind of small card today. Tomorrow is looking chalky.
NCAAF
Wisconsin +6 -103 2x
Pass: Miami
NCAAB
West Virginia +3 +110 1x
Louisville -13.5 +103 1x
Good luck today.
NCAAF
Wisconsin +6 -103 2x
Pass: Miami
NCAAB
West Virginia +3 +110 1x
Louisville -13.5 +103 1x
Good luck today.
Friday 12/26
,
Labels:
ncaaf bowl season,
plays
Hope everyone had a great holiday. I spent part of mine eating dinner at a Pennsylvania Turnpike Sbarro, so that was kind of different. Fortunately, I always have gambling and alcohol to make me feel better about myself.*
Florida Atlantic +7 +100 2x
If I happen to ditch this post-holiday bout of lethargy, I might get one of those theory posts up tonight.
*Just making sure everyone knows that last sentence was sarcastic. It's hard to get that across in the written word.
Florida Atlantic +7 +100 2x
If I happen to ditch this post-holiday bout of lethargy, I might get one of those theory posts up tonight.
*Just making sure everyone knows that last sentence was sarcastic. It's hard to get that across in the written word.
Wednesday 12/24
,
Labels:
ncaaf bowl season
Headed out for the holiday and I won't have access to a computer until tomorrow. If you noticed, Hawaii dropped off the leans list yesterday. As ML explains, there is no contrarian angle here. I haven't had time to look over the buckets card and I am already running late, so it is an off day for me. Good luck if you play anything.
Leans - Week 17
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf bowl season,
nfl week 17
The NFL card, as usual in Week 17, is wholly unappealing.
Strong Leans
Oregon +3 vs. Okla St (12/30)
Nevada -2.5 vs. Maryland (12/30)
Mich St +7.5 vs. Georgia (1/1)
Cincy -2.5 vs. Va Tech (1/1)
Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Texas Tech (1/2)
Ohio St +8 vs. Texas (1/5)
SF -3 vs. WAS
Moderate Leans
FAU +7 vs. Central Mich (12/26)
Wisky +5.5 vs. FSU (12/27)
NC State +7 vs. Rutgers (12/29)
N'western +12 vs. Mizzou (12/29)
Minny +8.5 vs. Kansas (12/31)
Vandy +3.5 vs. Boston College (12/31)
PHL -1 vs. DAL
Weak Leans
Ore St -3 vs. Pitt (12/31)
Kentucky +3 vs. ECU (1/2)
Buffalo +4.5 vs. UConn (1/3)
BUF +6.5 vs. NE
Strong Leans
Oregon +3 vs. Okla St (12/30)
Nevada -2.5 vs. Maryland (12/30)
Mich St +7.5 vs. Georgia (1/1)
Cincy -2.5 vs. Va Tech (1/1)
Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Texas Tech (1/2)
Ohio St +8 vs. Texas (1/5)
SF -3 vs. WAS
Moderate Leans
FAU +7 vs. Central Mich (12/26)
Wisky +5.5 vs. FSU (12/27)
NC State +7 vs. Rutgers (12/29)
N'western +12 vs. Mizzou (12/29)
Minny +8.5 vs. Kansas (12/31)
Vandy +3.5 vs. Boston College (12/31)
PHL -1 vs. DAL
Weak Leans
Ore St -3 vs. Pitt (12/31)
Kentucky +3 vs. ECU (1/2)
Buffalo +4.5 vs. UConn (1/3)
BUF +6.5 vs. NE
Tuesday 12/23
,
Labels:
ncaab week 2,
ncaaf bowl season,
plays
For those of you interested in those sort of things, Moneyline and I have been discussing the merits of reverse line movement. In other news, I didn't realize until I went to type this post, but I have developed quite the taste for chalk. I guess when I go bust by the end of January, I'll learn my lesson.
NCAAF
TCU -2.5 +103 3x
NCAAB
Wisconsin -1 +102 2x
Arizona -2.5 +104 1x
Santa Clara +4.5 +101 1x
Good luck tonight.
NCAAF
TCU -2.5 +103 3x
NCAAB
Wisconsin -1 +102 2x
Arizona -2.5 +104 1x
Santa Clara +4.5 +101 1x
Good luck tonight.
Review of Week 16
,
Labels:
in review,
ncaab week 1,
ncaaf bowl season,
nfl week 16
I actually have nothing to bitch about this week. I wish I had seen the Lions had the flu before I put my wager in, but the line didn't react to it, so if anything, it probably made them more attractive.
VCU +13 @ Oklahoma 1x
Pittsburgh -7 @ Florida State 1x
Providence +5 @ Boston College 1x
What did happen was that I backdoored two and a half games in two days. I fully expect that karma will bite me in the ass and I will lose my next ten basketball wagers. VCU was down 18 with under two to play, Pitt needed a 8-0 run to close out the game to cover, and I'd love to know what happened in the Providence game, but Yahoo went on the fritz. I know I was confused when Matchbook graded it a tie on Saturday.
I'll be on TCU tomorrow, most likely for a triple. As VW pointed out, Santa Clara and Wisky will be must plays on the buckets side.
VCU +13 @ Oklahoma 1x
Pittsburgh -7 @ Florida State 1x
Providence +5 @ Boston College 1x
What did happen was that I backdoored two and a half games in two days. I fully expect that karma will bite me in the ass and I will lose my next ten basketball wagers. VCU was down 18 with under two to play, Pitt needed a 8-0 run to close out the game to cover, and I'd love to know what happened in the Providence game, but Yahoo went on the fritz. I know I was confused when Matchbook graded it a tie on Saturday.
I'll be on TCU tomorrow, most likely for a triple. As VW pointed out, Santa Clara and Wisky will be must plays on the buckets side.
Sunday 12/21
,
Labels:
ncaaf bowl season,
nfl week 16,
plays
I had another decent day yesterday. Maybe I remembered how to wager intelligently? I'll go with Option B: Variance.
Early Games
Detroit +7 -103 2x
Cleveland -3 +116 2x
New England -7.5 2x
Passes: Tennessee, New England
Detroit was nearly upgraded to a 3x play. I still might drop another 1x on it.
For Cleveland, -3 +116 is slightly better than -2.5 -108. Plus, I'm a juice whore.
I changed my mind on New England and bought it back. The more I look into it, the less I like it. Really the only metric that makes them appealing is Wagerline. Every other consensus number I can find is bad.
Tennessee didn't make the cut for line movement reasons.
Late Games
NFL
Washington +5 -102 2x
Oakland +7 +104 2x
NCAAB
Pittsburgh -7 +104 1x
Nightcap
NCAAF
Southern Miss +4.5 -101 2x
Going by straight numbers, this is a better play than either Colo St or Rizo was yesterday. For some reason, I feel much less confident in the Eagles.
Good luck today.
Early Games
Detroit +7 -103 2x
Cleveland -3 +116 2x
Passes: Tennessee, New England
Detroit was nearly upgraded to a 3x play. I still might drop another 1x on it.
For Cleveland, -3 +116 is slightly better than -2.5 -108. Plus, I'm a juice whore.
I changed my mind on New England and bought it back. The more I look into it, the less I like it. Really the only metric that makes them appealing is Wagerline. Every other consensus number I can find is bad.
Tennessee didn't make the cut for line movement reasons.
Late Games
NFL
Washington +5 -102 2x
Oakland +7 +104 2x
NCAAB
Pittsburgh -7 +104 1x
Nightcap
NCAAF
Southern Miss +4.5 -101 2x
Going by straight numbers, this is a better play than either Colo St or Rizo was yesterday. For some reason, I feel much less confident in the Eagles.
Good luck today.
Saturday 12/20
,
Labels:
ncaab week 1,
ncaaf bowl season,
plays
Well, it looks like I am putting my ideas about anti-pub chalk to the test today. [EDIT: VW is right. I'm not really putting my chalk ideas to the test at all. I'm playing some early chalk and got lazy writing because I was tired this morning.] The consensus numbers are not there for any of these early basketball plays but Dook. I don't think I saw a single poster on the Cardinals or Rednecks.
Earlies (12p-3:30p)
NCAAB
WVU -9 -104 1x
Duke -6 -103 1x
Louisville -9 -101 1x
NCAAF
Colorado State +2.5 +101 2x
Afternooners (3:30p-7p)
NCAAB
Auburn +3.5 -106 1x
Providence +5 -106 1x
Gonzaga -3.5 +102 1x
Nightcaps (7p-12a)
NCAAF
Arizona -3.5 +105 2x
NCAAB
VCU +13 +108 1x
Rhode Island +4 -103 1x
I changed my mind for the buckets plays. I saw enough smart people on them to make me think they are the correct wagers.
Good luck.
Earlies (12p-3:30p)
NCAAB
WVU -9 -104 1x
Duke -6 -103 1x
Louisville -9 -101 1x
NCAAF
Colorado State +2.5 +101 2x
Afternooners (3:30p-7p)
NCAAB
Auburn +3.5 -106 1x
Providence +5 -106 1x
Gonzaga -3.5 +102 1x
Nightcaps (7p-12a)
NCAAF
Arizona -3.5 +105 2x
NCAAB
VCU +13 +108 1x
Rhode Island +4 -103 1x
I changed my mind for the buckets plays. I saw enough smart people on them to make me think they are the correct wagers.
Good luck.
Leans - NFL Week 16 and Bowls
,
Labels:
leans,
ncaaf bowl season,
nfl week 16
Passing the entire NCAAB slate. I didn't get a whole lot of time to look at anything again and there are no games that jump right out at me. There is no need to force anything before conference season starts up.
I haven't seen a whole lot of other respectable gambler's leans yet, but I am a bit surprised that there is this much chalk on my current card. I checked my plays from the last two years and I only played three and two favorites respectively. This isn't troubling because as I've talked about recently, I think there is some upside to anti-pub chalk (even though Moneyline has some reservations).
Bowl Leans will be updated next Tuesday, NFL Leans Friday.
Strong Leans
Arizona -3 vs. BYU (12/20)
Colo St +3 vs. Fresno (12/20)
TCU -2.5 vs. Boise (12/23)
Oregon +3 vs. Okla St (12/30)
Nevada -1.5 vs. Maryland (12/30)
Mich St +7.5 vs. Georgia (1/1)
Cincy -2 vs. VT (1/1)
Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Texas Tech (1/2)
DET +7 vs. NO
SEA +5 vs. NYJ
OAK +7 vs. HOU
Moderate Leans
Wisky +5 vs. FSU (12/27)
NW +12 vs. Mizzou (12/29)
Buffalo +4.5 vs. UConn (1/3)
tOSU +9 vs. Texas (1/5)
JAX +6 vs. IND (Thu.)
NE -9 vs. ARZ
WAS +5 vs. PHL
Weak Leans
So Miss +4.5 vs. Troy (12/21)
Hawaii -1 vs. ND (12/24)
FAU +7 vs. CMU (12/26)
NCSU +8.5 vs. Rutgers (12/29)
Minny +10 vs. Kansas (12/31)
Oregon St -3 vs. Pitt (12/31)
Kentucky +2.5 vs. ECU (1/2)
MIN -3.5 vs. ARZ
I haven't seen a whole lot of other respectable gambler's leans yet, but I am a bit surprised that there is this much chalk on my current card. I checked my plays from the last two years and I only played three and two favorites respectively. This isn't troubling because as I've talked about recently, I think there is some upside to anti-pub chalk (even though Moneyline has some reservations).
Bowl Leans will be updated next Tuesday, NFL Leans Friday.
Strong Leans
Arizona -3 vs. BYU (12/20)
Colo St +3 vs. Fresno (12/20)
TCU -2.5 vs. Boise (12/23)
Oregon +3 vs. Okla St (12/30)
Nevada -1.5 vs. Maryland (12/30)
Mich St +7.5 vs. Georgia (1/1)
Cincy -2 vs. VT (1/1)
Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Texas Tech (1/2)
DET +7 vs. NO
SEA +5 vs. NYJ
OAK +7 vs. HOU
Moderate Leans
Wisky +5 vs. FSU (12/27)
NW +12 vs. Mizzou (12/29)
Buffalo +4.5 vs. UConn (1/3)
tOSU +9 vs. Texas (1/5)
JAX +6 vs. IND (Thu.)
NE -9 vs. ARZ
WAS +5 vs. PHL
Weak Leans
So Miss +4.5 vs. Troy (12/21)
Hawaii -1 vs. ND (12/24)
FAU +7 vs. CMU (12/26)
NCSU +8.5 vs. Rutgers (12/29)
Minny +10 vs. Kansas (12/31)
Oregon St -3 vs. Pitt (12/31)
Kentucky +2.5 vs. ECU (1/2)
MIN -3.5 vs. ARZ
'Tis the season
,
Labels:
ncaaf bowl season
EDIT: Goddammit. I was out Christmas shopping and Moneyline beat me to it. Oh well, I'm sure we'll be different enough that people can heckle me.
I'm going to try to guess the lines in all of the bowl games before they come out. Why? Because I feel like adding content and the big research project I am working on is only about 30% complete.
EagleBank Bowl - Dec 20 - Washington, DC
Wake Forest vs. Navy -3
New Mexico Bowl - Dec 20 - Albuquerque
Colorado State vs. Fresno State -2
magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl - Dec 20 - St. Petersburg
Memphis vs. South Florida -11
Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl - Dec 20 - Las Vegas
BYU -5 vs. Arizona
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - Dec 21 - New Orleans
Southern Miss vs. Troy -7
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl - Dec 23 - San Diego
Boise State vs. TCU -9
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Dec 24 - Honolulu
Hawaii vs. Notre Dame -2
Motor City Bowl - Dec 26 - 8th Circle of Hell
Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan -10
Meineke Car Care Bowl - Dec 27 - Charlotte
West Virginia -2 vs. North Carolina
Champs Sports Bowl - Dec 27 - Orlando
Wisconsin vs. Florida State -13
Emerald Bowl - Dec 27 - San Francisco
Miami vs. California -3
Independence Bowl - Dec 28 - Shreveport
Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech -3
Papajohns.com Bowl - Dec 29 - Birmingham
NC State vs. Rutgers -6
Valero Alamo Bowl - Dec 29 - San Antonio
Missouri -18 vs. Northwestern
Roady's Humanitarian Bowl - Dec 30 - Boise
Maryland -4 vs. Nevada
Texas Bowl - Dec 30 - Houston
Rice -5 vs. Western Michigan
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl - Dec 30 - San Diego
Oklahoma State -13 vs. Oregon
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl - Dec 31 - Fort Worth
Houston -6 vs. Air Force
Brut Sun Bowl - Dec 31 - El Paso
Oregon State -5 vs. Pittsburgh
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl - Dec 31 - Nashville
Boston College -10 vs. Vanderbilt
Insight Bowl - Dec 31 - Tempe
Kansas -12 vs. Minnesota
Chick-fil-a Bowl - Dec 31 - Atlanta
LSU vs. Georgia Tech -8
Outback Bowl - Jan 1 - Tampa
South Carolina vs. Iowa -2
Capital One Bowl - Jan 1 - Orlando
Georgia -8 vs. Michigan State
Konica Minolta Gator - Jan 1 - Jacksonville
Clemson -3 vs. Nebraska
Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi - Jan 1 - Pasadena
Penn State vs. USC -7
FedEx Orange Bowl - Jan 1 - Miami
Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech -6
AT&T Cotton Bowl - Jan 2 - Dallas
Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech -4
Autozone Liberty Bowl - Jan 2 - Memphis
Kentucky -2 vs. East Carolina
Allstate Sugar Bowl - Jan 2 - New Orleans
Utah vs. Alabama -14
International Bowl - Jan 3 - Toronto
Buffalo vs. Connecticut -7
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Jan 5 - Glendale
Ohio State vs. Texas -6
GMAC Bowl - Jan 6 - Mobile
Tulsa -9 vs. Ball State
FedEx BCS National Championship Game - Jan 8 - Miami
Oklahoma vs. Florida -2
I'll evaluate this tomorrow or Tuesday once the lines come out. I'm sure this is pathetic.
I'm going to try to guess the lines in all of the bowl games before they come out. Why? Because I feel like adding content and the big research project I am working on is only about 30% complete.
EagleBank Bowl - Dec 20 - Washington, DC
Wake Forest vs. Navy -3
New Mexico Bowl - Dec 20 - Albuquerque
Colorado State vs. Fresno State -2
magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl - Dec 20 - St. Petersburg
Memphis vs. South Florida -11
Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl - Dec 20 - Las Vegas
BYU -5 vs. Arizona
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - Dec 21 - New Orleans
Southern Miss vs. Troy -7
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl - Dec 23 - San Diego
Boise State vs. TCU -9
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Dec 24 - Honolulu
Hawaii vs. Notre Dame -2
Motor City Bowl - Dec 26 - 8th Circle of Hell
Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan -10
Meineke Car Care Bowl - Dec 27 - Charlotte
West Virginia -2 vs. North Carolina
Champs Sports Bowl - Dec 27 - Orlando
Wisconsin vs. Florida State -13
Emerald Bowl - Dec 27 - San Francisco
Miami vs. California -3
Independence Bowl - Dec 28 - Shreveport
Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech -3
Papajohns.com Bowl - Dec 29 - Birmingham
NC State vs. Rutgers -6
Valero Alamo Bowl - Dec 29 - San Antonio
Missouri -18 vs. Northwestern
Roady's Humanitarian Bowl - Dec 30 - Boise
Maryland -4 vs. Nevada
Texas Bowl - Dec 30 - Houston
Rice -5 vs. Western Michigan
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl - Dec 30 - San Diego
Oklahoma State -13 vs. Oregon
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl - Dec 31 - Fort Worth
Houston -6 vs. Air Force
Brut Sun Bowl - Dec 31 - El Paso
Oregon State -5 vs. Pittsburgh
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl - Dec 31 - Nashville
Boston College -10 vs. Vanderbilt
Insight Bowl - Dec 31 - Tempe
Kansas -12 vs. Minnesota
Chick-fil-a Bowl - Dec 31 - Atlanta
LSU vs. Georgia Tech -8
Outback Bowl - Jan 1 - Tampa
South Carolina vs. Iowa -2
Capital One Bowl - Jan 1 - Orlando
Georgia -8 vs. Michigan State
Konica Minolta Gator - Jan 1 - Jacksonville
Clemson -3 vs. Nebraska
Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi - Jan 1 - Pasadena
Penn State vs. USC -7
FedEx Orange Bowl - Jan 1 - Miami
Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech -6
AT&T Cotton Bowl - Jan 2 - Dallas
Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech -4
Autozone Liberty Bowl - Jan 2 - Memphis
Kentucky -2 vs. East Carolina
Allstate Sugar Bowl - Jan 2 - New Orleans
Utah vs. Alabama -14
International Bowl - Jan 3 - Toronto
Buffalo vs. Connecticut -7
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Jan 5 - Glendale
Ohio State vs. Texas -6
GMAC Bowl - Jan 6 - Mobile
Tulsa -9 vs. Ball State
FedEx BCS National Championship Game - Jan 8 - Miami
Oklahoma vs. Florida -2
I'll evaluate this tomorrow or Tuesday once the lines come out. I'm sure this is pathetic.
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