Saturday 12/20

,
Well, it looks like I am putting my ideas about anti-pub chalk to the test today. [EDIT: VW is right. I'm not really putting my chalk ideas to the test at all. I'm playing some early chalk and got lazy writing because I was tired this morning.] The consensus numbers are not there for any of these early basketball plays but Dook. I don't think I saw a single poster on the Cardinals or Rednecks.

Earlies (12p-3:30p)

NCAAB
WVU -9 -104 1x
Duke -6 -103 1x
Louisville -9 -101 1x


NCAAF
Colorado State +2.5 +101 2x

Afternooners (3:30p-7p)

NCAAB
Auburn +3.5 -106 1x
Providence +5 -106 1x
Gonzaga -3.5 +102 1x


Nightcaps (7p-12a)

NCAAF
Arizona -3.5 +105 2x

NCAAB
VCU +13 +108 1x
Rhode Island +4 -103 1x


I changed my mind for the buckets plays. I saw enough smart people on them to make me think they are the correct wagers.

Good luck.

8 comments:

Vegas Watch said...

I'm not really seeing how completely ignoring the consensus numbers because a bunch of guys on Covers are on one side is a particularly good idea.

am19psu said...

I agree with you in general. I completely stopped reading the boards about a third of the way through football season.

I'm attacking this differently because I don't know the teams that well yet and I don't know what the public perception of the teams are. Once I develop my own opinions of teams and compare that to their public perception, I'll stop reading the boards again.

Had it only been on Covers, I would have chalked it up to groupthink, which often happens there, but I saw it across all the boards I checked.

Vegas Watch said...

I just don't see the justification of something as a play if the consensus numbers say one thing and the boards say something entirely different, especially if you thought the line was reasonable before looking at either.

am19psu said...

especially if you thought the line was reasonable before looking at either.

Herein lies the rub. I really don't have any perception for the basketball lines. It'd help if Pomeroy was putting out predictions.

Let me ask a question: why isn't Auburn showing up on anybody's lists today? Extremely anti-public numbers and playing a BCS conference opponent, yet I haven't see anyone I respect leaning that way.

I don't have an answer because unless Chris Porter and Donald Hand are playing in the game, I don't know much about either squad.

I'm not saying what I am doing here is a profitable long term strategy. What it is doing is starting the learning process.

Vegas Watch said...

"It'd help if Pomeroy was putting out predictions."

He is, as of about a week ago.

Let me ask a question: why isn't Auburn showing up on anybody's lists today?"

They were on the list MoneyLine posted.

"I'm not saying what I am doing here is a profitable long term strategy. What it is doing is starting the learning process."

I guess. It just seems to me that November is the time to do this, rather than now.

am19psu said...

He is, as of about a week ago.

Where? I didn't see them at kenpom.com or BP.

I guess. It just seems to me that November is the time to do this, rather than now.

Sure. I made a conscious decision to hold off on NCAAB until December because of the early season variance associated with any sport. Even though I am bound to make mistakes early on, it's my opinion that those mistakes will be less costly because the public has formed more opinions that can be exploited. It's just hard on the first Saturday when there are 100-odd lines to sift through.

Vegas Watch said...

http://www.kenpom.com/sked.php?y=2009&team=Gonzaga&t=p

They're on the team pages like the one linked above. If there is another place that they usually are I'm not aware of it.

am19psu said...

Thanks. Much appreciated.