1/5-1/11 Review

Amazingly, I was 7-3 +6x in hoops at one point last week. From Wednesday through yesterday, I went 5-15 -19x, easily one of the worst stretches of my short wagering career. Other than that swing, nothing really stands out.

Sunday 1/11

Somehow, I am the only contrarian on the planet to come out negative yesterday. Good for me.

130p LSU +3.5 +106 2x
1030p USC +2 -106 2x

The most likely plays here are LSU and USC. I don't have any desire to lay 19.5 on Pitt, even if they are 5th in offensive efficiency. Wake isn't exactly flying under anyone's radar either.

I seriously considered Wake, in light of the 6 point difference between the spread and the prediction, but I tend to tighten up when I am running bad.

Good luck tonight.

Saturday 1/10

This card scares me. I'm playing 6 early NCAA games and have 12 other legitimate leans. On the other hand, Carolina is now off the NFL board.

Earlies (12p-359p)

12p West Virginia +2.5 -103 2x
12p Clemson -11.5 +101 3x
130p Kansas State +1.5 -101 2x
2p Duke -9 +101 2x
2p Old Dominion +5.5 -101 2x
3p Toledo +1.5 +104 2x

Middays (4p-759p)

NCAAB
6p Washington -6 -106 2x
7p Miami (FL) +2 +106 3x

NFL
430p Tennessee -3 +100 2x

I debated whether to make the Huskies or Titans 3x plays. In the end I decided that if I was debating, I really shouldn't bump up either of them.

Nightcaps (8p-12a)

I am getting really frustrated between going 1-5 so far on hoops plays and watching Tennessee screw the pooch in the red zone. I'm going to pass everything tonight. My plays would have been Miss St, Mizz St, Hawaii and Wazzu.

All told I would have went 2-2 anyway. So, no big deal I quit tonight.

Good luck tonight.

Wednesday 1/8

Well, this ought to be neat. After a solid three day run back on the East Coast, yesterday blew ass. How did I respond? By putting 22x in play (roughly half my bankroll). Good for me.

NCAAB
7p Florida Intl +6 +102 3x
8p Detroit +5 +105 2x
8p UL Monroe +6 -101 2x
830p Arizona -10 +102 3x
9p San Jose State +2.5 +106 3x
10p Washington State -2 -106 3x
1030p Washington -7 +100 2x
1030p Arizona State -21 +127 2x

NCAAF
815p Oklahoma +5 -106 2x

The fact that the line has begun to fall again is what finally sold me on the Sooners. My (complete and utter) guess is public money drove the line up initially after the Fiesta Bowl, and now sharps are knocking it back down. I still don't really like this play, but I think it is right.

Wednesday 1/7

Kind of a light card tonight.

Eastern Michigan +8.5 +102 2x
Northwestern +7.5 -107 3x

Both the Eagles and Wildcats are contrarian and reverse line movement plays. The difference? The smart guys are loved by Pomeroy; the Ann Arbor-wannabes, not so much.

EDIT: I am disturbed.

Tuesday 1/6

I guess it wouldn't be Tuesday night without me throwing my profits away on some garbage MAC teams.

NCAAB
West Virginia -3 +100 3x
Fake Miami +6.5 +109 2x
Toledo +10 -105 2x
Seton Hall +7 -110 2x
Clemson -14 -109 3x
Penn State +2.5 +103 2x

I'm obviously not averse to laying the wood on chalk, but Tulsa is too split action for me tonight in the GMAC Bowl. It should still be entertaining.

Good luck.

Monday 1/5

NCAAB
William and Mary +3.5 +101 2x
Idaho +13.5 -105 2x
VCU -24 -108 2x
La Tech +13.5 +6 +109 2x

NCAAF
Ohio State +8 +106 3x

Between the Big Ten sucking and Texas out for revenge, there is no chance this bet hits.