Record Update - 26 April 2009

Nothing to complain about this week at all. I realize this is totally normal, but it's still weird to be six games under .500 and up more than 14x.

There are no early games tomorrow, so no need for any leans here. Good luck if you're playing anything.

Friday 4/24

Time to give away all of the week's profits.

Plays
705p TEX/BAL u10.5 +104 2x
710p Washington +238 2x
710p Philadelphia +118 2x
910p Colorado -108 2x
940p ARZ/SF o8.5 +104 2x

I was not expecting to play the World Champions until at least May. I find it amusing a day after I read this blog entry describing how Texas and Baltimore can't pitch, I end up on an under involving both teams.

I'll be gone until Sunday evening. I definitely won't place any wagers. I might have a chance to get some Streak plays in, but I doubt it.

Good luck this weekend.

Thursday 4/23 - PM

I not happy that I accidentally jinxed myself this morning by putting Marino in green before the match up even happened.

Plays
805p Houston +117 3x

I convinced myself at work today that the Astros should be a 3x play, erroneously, no doubt. I'm probably mindflipping myself trying to figure out how the oddsmakers came up with +117, but it just seems so off looking at the two teams' offenses and the starting pitchers.

EDIT: Glad to see I'm not the only one.

Leans
710p WAS (Olsen) +240 @ NYM (Santana)
910p COL (Cook) +102 vs. LAD (Stults)
1005p SD (Correia) -124 vs. PIT (Snell)
1005p OAK (Cahill) +112 vs. TB (Kazmir)

Maybe more depending on how consensus data checks out tomorrow morning.

Streak for the Cash
8p Chicago vs. Boston
Current Streak: 0

The Bulls are a no brainer. Late night, I guess I'll take the Spazz if I can stay up that late, though that is unlikely.

Thursday 4/23 - AM

It looks like ESPN is running a potentially cool Streak promotion for the NFL Draft. They'll be running 15-20 props to pick during the first two rounds Saturday night. I'd like to have fun with it, potentially with live blog, but I'll be away for the weekend. I'll have all of my plays in for tomorrow in the morning and then you won't see me until Sunday evening.

I promise I won't make up strategic reasons for being lazy while I'm gone.

Plays
220p Cincinnati +152 2x
Pass: Milwaukee

Matchbook is down this morning, as are the mirrors. TheFiancee will have to put this in later this morning and hopefully you'll trust me when I update the juice after work.

Leans
805p HOU (Rodriguez) +113 vs. LAD (Billingsley)

That line seems... off? I get that the Astros starting pitching has been hot lately, and Wandy does does have a 2.76 FIP with good walk and strikeout ratios, but he also has a BABIP of .236 and a LOB% of 80. And it's not like Billingsley is a slouch. Dude is 3-0 and with good peripherals and was projected to be better this year. Throw that in with the runs/game stat from the offenses and I'm confused. I'm sure my small baseball brain is missing something.

Streak for the Cash
936a S. Marino over R. Beem (Zurich Classic)
245p Sampdoria +1.5 vs. Inter Milan (Coppa Italia)
Current Streak: 1

All the golf guys bet on Marino a lot. They never bet on fluke major winners.

I'll be awaiting guidance of The Saw or ML on the afternoon golf match, but I assume Perry is the way to go. The afternoon soccer match is interesting. I still have no idea how to read these Asian lines as it relates to probability (Inter is -1 and -1.5 -121 at Pinny). However, at The Greek, Inter is -1.5 +109 and Sampo is -133, which I guess should give Sampo the edge. Jury is out on the afternoon play.

Good luck.

Wednesday 4/22

I am shocked - SHOCKED - that something Accuweather put out could possibly be based on hype and not science. As I said to Adam last night, the main factor for Yankee Stadium being Coors East is likely small sample size (and possibly homers overall being hit farther). That's not to say weather isn't playing a role, as the article showed, it likely is, but not due to the aerodynamics of the new park like Accuweather put out.

Plays
705p Washington +125 2x
805p Cincinnati +156 2x
805p Houston -113 2x
1005p Detroit +100 3x

That Houston line is showing Oswalt a ton of respect (or a complete lack thereof for Wolf). The Dodgers have scored the third most runs per game in the majors, while Houston has scored the least.

Leans
105p MIL (Bush) +147 @ PHL (Hamels)
220p CIN (Harang) +151 @ CHC (Zambrano)

Tomorrow's card does not look particularly enticing, either early or late.

Streak for the Cash
805p Houston vs. Los Angeles
Current Streak: 3

There really aren't a whole lot of great picks in Streak tonight, so why not double down. The Astros, obviously, are a slightly larger favorite than Detroit.

Good luck tonight.

Leans 4/22

Somehow, the Natinals bullpen managed to hold onto a lead last night. I can only assume this means they'll blow a five run lead tonight in some ungodly fashion.

Plays
Passes: Oakland, Pittsburgh

I didn't feel real comfortable with any of these early plays at first glance this morning. I'm still hesitant to buy off of on contrariany chalk early in the season.

Leans
705p MIL (Looper) +120 @ PHL (Blanton)
705p WAS (Lannan) +121 vs. ATL (Jurrjens)
805p CIN (Cueto) +154 @ CHC (Lilly)
805p HOU (Oswalt) -115 vs. LAD (Wolf)
1005p DET (Verlander) +103 @ LAA (Saunders)

I don't know about the rest of these, but Detroit is almost certainly going to be a 3xer. Partially a fade of Saunders and partially Verlander is underrated.

Streak for the Cash
230p Werder Bremen (win or draw) @ Hamburg SV (German Cup)
Current Streak: 2

I would not have had a problem backing Maholm early, but Werder has a JA 62.2% chance of winning or getting the tie. The argument could be made that being able to play two afternoon games is more valuable at my low streak. I'm not sure which is right.

Tuesday 4/21

I really need to start writing my ideas down at work. I was thinking about something gambling related then started doing, you know, actual work and completely forgot about it.

Plays
705p Pittsburgh +134 2x
705p Washington +120 2x
705p Milwaukee +119 2x
705p Oakland +188 2x
705p Minnesota +153 2x
805p Houston +158 2x
Pass: Baltimore

Let's be honest. Two-and-four would be considered a good night with these gems out there.

Leans
1235p PIT (Maholm) +100 vs. FLA (Nolasco)
105p OAK (Anderson) +240 vs. NYY (Sabathia)
345p SF (Zito) +108 vs. SD (Young)

Here is how little I know about baseball: are there usually more National League day games than American League? I don't have any evidence to back this up, it just seems empirically through 16 days, there have been more NL afternooners.

Streak for the Cash
705p Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
1030p San Jose @ Anaheim
Current Streak: 1

I'll be on the Sharks late.

Good luck tonight.

Leans 4/21

The Nationals won. Shockingly, as I look at the box score, the bullpen held onto a late inning, one run lead. Maybe the moves yesterday motivated them.

Leans
705p PIT (Karstens) +113 vs. FLA (Sanchez)
705p WAS (Martis) +115 vs. ATL (Kawakami)
705p MIN (Baker) +151 @ BOS (Wakefield)
805p HOU (Ortiz) +146 vs. LAD (Kershaw)
1005p SF (Cain) +109 vs. SD (Peavy)

Of course, it's another day sweating the Natinals. Minny is a Wakefield fade. Everyone remembers he almost no hit the A's. I don't want to back either Houston or San Fran against those pitchers. Surprisingly, the Fathers aren't all that public early this morning. Why aren't there any OAK/NYY or MIL/PHL lines yet? Unsure of pitchers, maybe? How is that for a disjointed paragraph?

Streak for the Cash
3p Liverpool (win only) vs. Arsenal
Current Streak: 0

My winning percentage in Streak was as high as 78% at one point last week after going 20-1 in 21 picks. My 2-8 run has brought it back to something a bit more reasonable (63%). Liverpool is the easy play today at -139. Arsenal has an extremely small chance of winning (17.3% JA), but since they are the bigger name, Streakers are picking them.

Monday 4/20

There is a good discussion (well, actually, a good pwning of my idiocy) going on in the comments to this morning's leans post. Check it out.

Plays
705p Washington +134 3x
Pass: COL/ARZ O10.5

Like you didn't know that was coming. This is of course assuming the game doesn't get rained out (like OAK/NYY did). Looking at the radar out of Sterling, the rain appears to broken, so while delays are likely, I don't think the game will get rained out.

Once again, there are no early games tomorrow. Glad to see we are in mid-season form in the scheduling, at least.

Streak for the Cash
7p Rangers vs. Washington
945p Nowitski more points and rebounds than Duncan
Current Streak: 0

Just because no one expects them to actually win a third straight game and I want to play a second game tonight, which will be Calgary.

This is going to be really neat when the flipping Rangers lose at 9:35. I'm really not happy about this.

Leans 4/20

I guess it should be pretty obvious by now that I won't be posting much in the way of theoretical stuff over the next four or five months. I just don't have a large knowledge base for baseball. Plus, baseball is a sport that has been analyzed to death. It's not like my Excel spreadsheets are going to break new ground. Once football preparation starts, this will hopefully go back to being more than just a picks blog.

Leans
705p WAS (Zimmerman) +142 vs. ATL (Lowe)
705p OAK (Eveland) +170 @ NYY (Pettitte)

Both of these look like the types of games I might want to lay 3x on. Not that I know what that means, other than I had a strong reaction when I saw the lines.

Streak for the Cash
930a The Kenyan faster than The American (Boston Marathon)
245p Sheffield United vs. Burnley (English Championship)
Current Streak: 0

Sure, that might seem square, but cajuncook found a legit reason for it, too. There is almost no edge in the English Championship later today.

I clearly didn't expect The Kenyan to lose today. I literally flipped a coin at work to come up with Sheffield.