Thursday 4/23 - AM

It looks like ESPN is running a potentially cool Streak promotion for the NFL Draft. They'll be running 15-20 props to pick during the first two rounds Saturday night. I'd like to have fun with it, potentially with live blog, but I'll be away for the weekend. I'll have all of my plays in for tomorrow in the morning and then you won't see me until Sunday evening.

I promise I won't make up strategic reasons for being lazy while I'm gone.

220p Cincinnati +152 2x
Pass: Milwaukee

Matchbook is down this morning, as are the mirrors. TheFiancee will have to put this in later this morning and hopefully you'll trust me when I update the juice after work.

805p HOU (Rodriguez) +113 vs. LAD (Billingsley)

That line seems... off? I get that the Astros starting pitching has been hot lately, and Wandy does does have a 2.76 FIP with good walk and strikeout ratios, but he also has a BABIP of .236 and a LOB% of 80. And it's not like Billingsley is a slouch. Dude is 3-0 and with good peripherals and was projected to be better this year. Throw that in with the runs/game stat from the offenses and I'm confused. I'm sure my small baseball brain is missing something.

Streak for the Cash
936a S. Marino over R. Beem (Zurich Classic)
245p Sampdoria +1.5 vs. Inter Milan (Coppa Italia)
Current Streak: 1

All the golf guys bet on Marino a lot. They never bet on fluke major winners.

I'll be awaiting guidance of The Saw or ML on the afternoon golf match, but I assume Perry is the way to go. The afternoon soccer match is interesting. I still have no idea how to read these Asian lines as it relates to probability (Inter is -1 and -1.5 -121 at Pinny). However, at The Greek, Inter is -1.5 +109 and Sampo is -133, which I guess should give Sampo the edge. Jury is out on the afternoon play.

Good luck.


Gamblor said...

Aren't Wandy's Home/Road splits something the books have taken into consideration with that line?

JBD said...

Bartolo Colon vs Adam Eaton...can't wait. Go Orioles.

Vegas Watch said...

"Aren't Wandy's Home/Road splits something the books have taken into consideration with that line?"

Doubtful. H/A splits tend to be pretty random, in the sense that having a large H/A split in the past doesn't accurately predict it continuing in the future.

His career K/BB ratios are essentially identical at home and on the road anyway.