Leans 4/22

Somehow, the Natinals bullpen managed to hold onto a lead last night. I can only assume this means they'll blow a five run lead tonight in some ungodly fashion.

Passes: Oakland, Pittsburgh

I didn't feel real comfortable with any of these early plays at first glance this morning. I'm still hesitant to buy off of on contrariany chalk early in the season.

705p MIL (Looper) +120 @ PHL (Blanton)
705p WAS (Lannan) +121 vs. ATL (Jurrjens)
805p CIN (Cueto) +154 @ CHC (Lilly)
805p HOU (Oswalt) -115 vs. LAD (Wolf)
1005p DET (Verlander) +103 @ LAA (Saunders)

I don't know about the rest of these, but Detroit is almost certainly going to be a 3xer. Partially a fade of Saunders and partially Verlander is underrated.

Streak for the Cash
230p Werder Bremen (win or draw) @ Hamburg SV (German Cup)
Current Streak: 2

I would not have had a problem backing Maholm early, but Werder has a JA 62.2% chance of winning or getting the tie. The argument could be made that being able to play two afternoon games is more valuable at my low streak. I'm not sure which is right.


Vegas Watch said...

"I'm still hesitant to buy off of on contrariany chalk early in the season."


JBD said...

Isn't Houston a great play? Or is it just me?

am19psu said...


Early on in my contrarian gambling career, I got murdered by early season chalk across all sports. I've been somewhat hesitant from that. Looking at my record over the last two years, though, I'm well over .500 with early chalk. The effects might be correlated; I'm not sure.

am19psu said...

Oh, and SSS and all that stuff. I've made my points before about early season gambling, in general.