Week 6 Mumme Poll Draft

This week's ballot is exactly like last week's ballot. What happened that would have changed my opinion? The only upset was Auburn, which was clearly overrated last week (#11 after only being favored 1.5 @ Tennessee?) and no team overperformed or underperformed expectations except Texas, who was obviously looking ahead to OU.

Top Five
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Virginia Tech
Boise State

Next Seven
TCU
Cincinnati
Miami (FL)
Ohio State
USC
Iowa
LSU

The only team I debated about moving up was Nebraska. Which team on my list are they better than though? Maybe Iowa or LSU, but Iowa is undefeated and LSU's loss is (slightly) better. If LSU lays an egg against inferior competition again, maybe I'll elevate Nebraska.

Let me know what you think in the comments.

Saturday 10/10

Thanks to Jonny for pointing out that my lean was PURDUE, not Minny. That would have been embarrassing.

As I mentioned last night, this card was easy to put together. I'll be interested to see how it differs from other cards in Contrarianville, because there isn't a whole lot of wiggle room for plays today.

Played Last Night
12p Syracuse +10 +102 3x
12p Illinois +4 +101 5x
12p Purdue +3 +105 3x
1220p Tennessee -1.5 +104 3x
330p Mississippi +4.5 -101 5x
330p Ohio State -16 +108 3x
330p UCLA +3.5 -105 3x
8p Florida -7 -106 3x
10p Arizona -3.5 +100 3x

I might add some games on later this afternoon. Good luck. We're going to need it.

Add-ons
8p Iowa -8 +103 3x
8p Florida -10 +100 2x
10p UNLV +17 -102 3x

Since I was 2-0 on my passes earlier, I'm sure these will each lose by two touchdowns.

Leans NFL Week 5/CFB Week 6 Revisited

I haven't struggled at all coming up with this week's card. It's about as clear as I can remember. Which means I'll be looking at -35x Tuesday morning.

Definite Plays
12p Illinois +4 vs. Sparty
12p Minny -3 vs. Purdue
12p Cuse +10 vs. WVU
1220p Tenny -1.5 vs. UGa
330p Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Bama
330p tOSU -16 vs. Wisky
330p UCLA +3.5 vs. Oregon
8p Florida -7 -106 3x vs. LSU
10p Ariz -3.5 @ Wash

1p TB +15.5 @ PHL
1p OAK +15 @ NYG
1p DET +10.5 vs. PIT
1p STL +10 vs. MIN
415p DEN +3 vs. NE
820p TEN +3.5 vs. IND
830p MIA +1 vs. NYJ (Mon.)

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Arky +2.5 vs. Auburn
12p VT -13.5 vs. BC
8p Iowa -8 vs. Mich
8p FSU -3 vs. GT

1p BAL -9 vs. CIN

Borderline Volume Plays
6p Colo St +8 vs. Utah
10p UNLV +17 vs. BYU

For the games tomorrow, the most likely sides to get added are UNLV, Iowa, and FSU, in that order. I'll make the final decision on those in the afternoon.

Thursday 10/8

Thank you, Phillies, for having a home playoff game, allowing me to scoop tickets tonight's Flyers/Pens game for half off.

I was trying to find a way to get Nebraska on the card tonight, but it's split action everywhere. Plus, wanting to play a side is usually a bad sign.

Good luck tonight.

Saturday 10/10 A Little Early

There is little doubt in my mind this is going to blow up in my face.

8p Florida -7 -106 3x

The logic isn't too hard to follow here. Teblow -10 was going to be a play. There is some question whether Teblow is going to play, but indications from most Florida blogs/boards are that he's practicing with no contact, which makes me think he'll play (otherwise why practice at all), therefore UF -7 should be value. Of course, as a Penn State fan, I remember quite fondly Daryll Clark's concussed performance last year versus Iowa. Hopefully, the extra week will be enough for the Jesus Child to prepare for Death Valley.

Leans NFL Week 5/CFB Week 6

I did not think I would ever see a week where I have more definite plays in the pros as college. I suppose that's what happens when "after three weeks, we invariably know whether the season will be... relatively easy to figure out."

Definite Plays
12p Cuse +10 vs. WVU
12p Ill +4.5 vs. Sparty
1220p Tenny -2 vs. Aub
10p Ariz -2.5 vs. Wash

1p STL +10 vs. MIN
1p TB +13.5 @ PHL
1p OAK +16 @ NYG
415p DEN +3 vs. NE
820p TEN +3.5 vs. IND
835p MIA +1 vs. NYJ (Mon.)

• You think the books are reacting to the public sentiment that the league is "easy" this year? I might lose 25x on Sunday.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
9p Neb -3 @ Mizz (Thu.)
9p LaTech +10.5 @ Nev (Fri.)
12p Arky +3 vs. Aub
330p tOSU -16.5 vs. Wisky
330p UCLA +4 vs. Ore
8p FSU -2.5 vs. GT
8p UF -7.5 vs. LSU
8p Iowa -8 vs. Mich

1p KC +9 vs. DAL
1p CLE +6 @ BUF
1p BAL -9 vs. CIN

• Lots of garbage chalk out there on the college card.
• I'm not going to need to see a lot to pull the trigger on the Huskers or Bulldogs.
• I'm slightly surprised at the early Wagerline numbers for Arky/Aub. I thought Auburn would be obviously public with the press they are getting.
• If the UF line was -10 like it was when it opened, I would have it as a definite. Obviously, that's pending Teblow.
• Masoli is doubtful for Oregon. Not sure how that will play out this week with the public.
• I feel like all three of those borderline NFL leans would be obvious plays any other week.

Borderline Volume Plays
6p CSU +7.5 vs. Utah
10p UNLV +16.5 vs. BYU
11p Fresno -9.5 @ Hawaii

• After seeing what's happened to Florida State, isn't it possible that BYU sucks (and by extension, so does Oklahoma)?
• I haven't seen Hawaii getting that many on the island in a long time to a team that's not Boise.

I'm hating Sunday already.

CFB Week 6 Line Guess Results

Sham beat me by almost a full point (2.35 avg error vs. 3.24), though, as he points out, it's almost entirely due to me having no idea to how value a couple of lesser conference teams. I'm over it, since this exercise isn't for me to show how smart I am (or dumb, as it were), but to learn how to properly value teams, so I don't think stupid things like "PSU should be favored by 18 on the road against Illinois." Discussion follows.



Sham: I'll start with my most egregious error, listing Texas as only a 24-point favorite at home against Colorado. In week 3 Texas was favored by 19.5 at home against my favorite coach's squad, Texas Tech. Clearly, Texas Tech would be more than a single-digit favorite at home against Colorado. I'll blame that one on my sinuses.

am19psu: Dude, trust me, you have nothing to be ashamed of. Look at some of the misses I made in the shitty conferences. Also, WTF was with my tOSU line.

Sham: There were a few missteps in the shittier conferences, but in those particular games what are the chances that those games will be anti-public sides? Very few. If you look at games that will attract more attention (money) I think you did a better job of nailing those.

A line that surprised me was Arizona/Washington. Washington played LSU tough at home and beat USC. Arizona should be no problem. I think back to a couple of weeks ago when Arizona opened as a fav at Oregon St before the huge line movement put the Beavs as favorites. Looks like the oddsmakers like Arizona a bit more than everyone else.

am19psu: Agreed about the lesser conferences and about UW/UA. I don't think we were the only ones surprised either.

I was a little unhappy about the Nebraska line. We both had it opening higher. If we were right, we would definitely be on them Thursday night. As it is, I probably will be anyway.

Sham: I think I nailed the Nebraska line (-2.5), now it's at 3 which is encouraging. I mean they haven't won a game on the road against a ranked squad since 1997. The only other team who can say that is the football powerhouse in Durham. As long as the consensus #s aren't skewed in Nebraska's favor I'll have a tough time not making a homer play.

Is it me or is this card completely underwhelming? Initial looks are Nebraska, Arizona, Colorado St., Illinois & Tenny. Not thrilled about the last two for whatever reason. I'm sure come Saturday I'll have double-digits plays though.

am19psu: Oh wow, it's up to 2.5 now? It opened at 1 last night at the Greek. Guess the sharps thought the same we did. I hate to agree with Stewie, but Nebraska is an underrated football team right now.

I agree with all of your leans, minus Colo St (based only on low volume), but plus UF and maybe tOSU (-16, really?).

Do you think there's any chance we end up on the Bulldogs on another weeknight shitfest?

Sham: 1? I'm a bit surprised by that, but it's good that the sharps have faith in Nebraska, who should by all accounts be undefeated.

I could see Florida rounding into a play on a weak card with the injury to Tebow and LSU winning on this past week at Georgia, but last year Florida whipped LSU. At this point I'm hesitant to pull the trigger.

One thing that concerns me with La Tech is their inability to take advantage of Nevada's less than steller secondary. tOSU is down to -14, FWIW.

am19psu: I'll be interested to see if the public remembers that Nevada stinks this year or if they will just remember the last two weeks.

I think this was good enough for a first run through. Let's see what it looks like this week and decide how to adjust going forward.

CFB Week 6 Line Guesses

This is the first installment with Sham as an opponent. We were off on quite a few games, mostly because I was plum retarded about a few teams. Discussion and results will be posted tomorrow night.