Leans NFL Week 5/CFB Week 6

I did not think I would ever see a week where I have more definite plays in the pros as college. I suppose that's what happens when "after three weeks, we invariably know whether the season will be... relatively easy to figure out."

Definite Plays
12p Cuse +10 vs. WVU
12p Ill +4.5 vs. Sparty
1220p Tenny -2 vs. Aub
10p Ariz -2.5 vs. Wash

1p STL +10 vs. MIN
1p TB +13.5 @ PHL
1p OAK +16 @ NYG
415p DEN +3 vs. NE
820p TEN +3.5 vs. IND
835p MIA +1 vs. NYJ (Mon.)

  • You think the books are reacting to the public sentiment that the league is "easy" this year? I might lose 25x on Sunday.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
9p Neb -3 @ Mizz (Thu.)
9p LaTech +10.5 @ Nev (Fri.)
12p Arky +3 vs. Aub
330p tOSU -16.5 vs. Wisky
330p UCLA +4 vs. Ore
8p FSU -2.5 vs. GT
8p UF -7.5 vs. LSU
8p Iowa -8 vs. Mich

1p KC +9 vs. DAL
1p CLE +6 @ BUF
1p BAL -9 vs. CIN

  • Lots of garbage chalk out there on the college card.
  • I'm not going to need to see a lot to pull the trigger on the Huskers or Bulldogs.
  • I'm slightly surprised at the early Wagerline numbers for Arky/Aub. I thought Auburn would be obviously public with the press they are getting.
  • If the UF line was -10 like it was when it opened, I would have it as a definite. Obviously, that's pending Teblow.
  • Masoli is doubtful for Oregon. Not sure how that will play out this week with the public.
  • I feel like all three of those borderline NFL leans would be obvious plays any other week.

Borderline Volume Plays
6p CSU +7.5 vs. Utah
10p UNLV +16.5 vs. BYU
11p Fresno -9.5 @ Hawaii

  • After seeing what's happened to Florida State, isn't it possible that BYU sucks (and by extension, so does Oklahoma)?
  • I haven't seen Hawaii getting that many on the island in a long time to a team that's not Boise.
I'm hating Sunday already.


Anonymous said...

stupid question...but when you say "volume play" what exactly does that mean?

am19psu said...

In order for squares to create market inefficiencies (and therefore make a side attractive for contrarian betting), large amounts of money have to be wagered. If the game isn't taking in a ton of action, then it's less likely the line is shaded.

Kunk said...

I really don't understand the absence of Ole Miss here. 'Bama certainly didn't look dominant @ Kentucky, but the score (and cover) sure looked like it. And I'd bet that more than anything, most people will only think of Ole Miss as the team that looked terrible against S Carolina. It's not overwhelming, sure, but it's gotta be a lean.

Also, blog war.

am19psu said...

I really don't understand the absence of Ole Miss here.

Frustration at hoping it wouldn't make my card. Wishing it weren't there won't get my 3-5x back Saturday night, either. I'll be playing it, for sure.