CFB Week 6 Line Guess Results

Sham beat me by almost a full point (2.35 avg error vs. 3.24), though, as he points out, it's almost entirely due to me having no idea to how value a couple of lesser conference teams. I'm over it, since this exercise isn't for me to show how smart I am (or dumb, as it were), but to learn how to properly value teams, so I don't think stupid things like "PSU should be favored by 18 on the road against Illinois." Discussion follows.

Sham: I'll start with my most egregious error, listing Texas as only a 24-point favorite at home against Colorado. In week 3 Texas was favored by 19.5 at home against my favorite coach's squad, Texas Tech. Clearly, Texas Tech would be more than a single-digit favorite at home against Colorado. I'll blame that one on my sinuses.

am19psu: Dude, trust me, you have nothing to be ashamed of. Look at some of the misses I made in the shitty conferences. Also, WTF was with my tOSU line.

There were a few missteps in the shittier conferences, but in those particular games what are the chances that those games will be anti-public sides? Very few. If you look at games that will attract more attention (money) I think you did a better job of nailing those.

A line that surprised me was Arizona/Washington. Washington played LSU tough at home and beat USC. Arizona should be no problem. I think back to a couple of weeks ago when Arizona opened as a fav at Oregon St before the huge line movement put the Beavs as favorites. Looks like the oddsmakers like Arizona a bit more than everyone else.

am19psu: Agreed about the lesser conferences and about UW/UA. I don't think we were the only ones surprised either.

I was a little unhappy about the Nebraska line. We both had it opening higher. If we were right, we would definitely be on them Thursday night. As it is, I probably will be anyway.

I think I nailed the Nebraska line (-2.5), now it's at 3 which is encouraging. I mean they haven't won a game on the road against a ranked squad since 1997. The only other team who can say that is the football powerhouse in Durham. As long as the consensus #s aren't skewed in Nebraska's favor I'll have a tough time not making a homer play.

Is it me or is this card completely underwhelming? Initial looks are Nebraska, Arizona, Colorado St., Illinois & Tenny. Not thrilled about the last two for whatever reason. I'm sure come Saturday I'll have double-digits plays though.

am19psu: Oh wow, it's up to 2.5 now? It opened at 1 last night at the Greek. Guess the sharps thought the same we did. I hate to agree with Stewie, but Nebraska is an underrated football team right now.

I agree with all of your leans, minus Colo St (based only on low volume), but plus UF and maybe tOSU (-16, really?).

Do you think there's any chance we end up on the Bulldogs on another weeknight shitfest?

Sham: 1? I'm a bit surprised by that, but it's good that the sharps have faith in Nebraska, who should by all accounts be undefeated.

I could see Florida rounding into a play on a weak card with the injury to Tebow and LSU winning on this past week at Georgia, but last year Florida whipped LSU. At this point I'm hesitant to pull the trigger.

One thing that concerns me with La Tech is their inability to take advantage of Nevada's less than steller secondary. tOSU is down to -14, FWIW.

I'll be interested to see if the public remembers that Nevada stinks this year or if they will just remember the last two weeks.

I think this was good enough for a first run through. Let's see what it looks like this week and decide how to adjust going forward.


Sham said...

Might have your answer on Florida.