The blue and green columns are the fair value price for getting to the Final Four and winning the championship, respectively. Future bets with better juice than the numbers below are likely good wagers.
Keep in mind, this is based off the Pomeroy pyth metric and is not altered in any way. As before, Vegas Watch will do this better later in the week with sportsbook adjustments.
Midwest:
West:
South:
East:
13 comments:
Awesome stuff here...interesting things:
WVU has the 2nd best chance to get to the F4 and win in their region as a 6 seed. This obviously isnt' surprising to anyone who checks Pomeroy.
Memphis being a heavy favorite in its region -- again not surprising.
Gonzaga's odds being somewhat close to UNC's.
The East is Pitt, Duke, and UCLA. And with Duke's history and UCLA's seed, I don't foresee many people picking anyone other than Pitt to win that region.
How did you do this?
How did you do this?
I'm awesome.
In all seriousness, it was just setting up really long Excel formulas and knowing the log5 formula and how conditional probability works.
Again, great stuff. I was thinking I'd have to wait until Wednesday for Pomeroy's log5 to show up on BP... now I can get a head start.
WVU +545 to make the final 4 at the Greek.
UCLA +1015 to make it at the Greek...now that's worth a flyer.
Pitt +155 to make the F4 as well.
Great stuff Adam.
if anybody still has money in the shit show known as Bodog, WVU is 13-1! to make the final four. Just put 5x on them. So is Arizona St
not 5x, i lied, not that you care
I created a model over Spring Break and I actually had Gonzaga with slightly higher chances than UConn. Not sure why our numbers are differing as I am using the Pomeroy numbers too. Maybe I did something slightly wrong. Our orders are mostly the same other than those two.
Sorry, I meant I had UConn with higher chances than Gonzaga.
I'm not sure either. I could have just as easily made a mistake. Are they that significantly different that the EV of a future bet is off?
My EV for a Connecticut bet would be 1251.
For Gonzaga, mine would be 1277.
Well, it's somewhat reassuring that even though they're off, they're off by so little that I doubt it affects anyone decision-making process.
Great Work
I wonder how many people would realize that North Dakota St and Cleveland St have a better chance to make the Final 4 than Dayton.
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