tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post7630634533193635537..comments2023-07-14T07:50:35.876-04:00Comments on You guessed it, Frank Stallone: NCAA Tournament log5 PredictionsUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-46390713072097083222009-03-16T22:56:00.000-04:002009-03-16T22:56:00.000-04:00Great WorkI wonder how many people would realize t...Great Work<BR/><BR/>I wonder how many people would realize that North Dakota St and Cleveland St have a better chance to make the Final 4 than Dayton.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-43715977207144090402009-03-16T19:55:00.000-04:002009-03-16T19:55:00.000-04:00Well, it's somewhat reassuring that even though th...Well, it's somewhat reassuring that even though they're off, they're off by so little that I doubt it affects anyone decision-making process.am19psuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18441351103470970374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-37244236620838631442009-03-16T19:25:00.000-04:002009-03-16T19:25:00.000-04:00My EV for a Connecticut bet would be 1251.For Gonz...My EV for a Connecticut bet would be 1251.<BR/><BR/>For Gonzaga, mine would be 1277.Jeb McRaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06110491095648167358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-66844148805118891032009-03-16T17:51:00.000-04:002009-03-16T17:51:00.000-04:00I'm not sure either. I could have just as easily m...I'm not sure either. I could have just as easily made a mistake. Are they that significantly different that the EV of a future bet is off?am19psuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18441351103470970374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-43380478807617088622009-03-16T17:39:00.000-04:002009-03-16T17:39:00.000-04:00Sorry, I meant I had UConn with higher chances tha...Sorry, I meant I had UConn with higher chances than Gonzaga.Jeb McRaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06110491095648167358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-84895351034093848492009-03-16T17:27:00.000-04:002009-03-16T17:27:00.000-04:00I created a model over Spring Break and I actually...I created a model over Spring Break and I actually had Gonzaga with slightly higher chances than UConn. Not sure why our numbers are differing as I am using the Pomeroy numbers too. Maybe I did something slightly wrong. Our orders are mostly the same other than those two.Jeb McRaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06110491095648167358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-68668709230598875072009-03-15T21:42:00.000-04:002009-03-15T21:42:00.000-04:00not 5x, i lied, not that you carenot 5x, i lied, not that you careAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-17393060024241980152009-03-15T21:40:00.000-04:002009-03-15T21:40:00.000-04:00if anybody still has money in the shit show known ...if anybody still has money in the shit show known as Bodog, WVU is 13-1! to make the final four. Just put 5x on them. So is Arizona StAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-37520499883075536662009-03-15T21:06:00.000-04:002009-03-15T21:06:00.000-04:00WVU +545 to make the final 4 at the Greek. UCLA +1...WVU +545 to make the final 4 at the Greek. <BR/><BR/>UCLA +1015 to make it at the Greek...now that's worth a flyer.<BR/><BR/>Pitt +155 to make the F4 as well.<BR/><BR/>Great stuff Adam.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-43758838212046086872009-03-15T20:55:00.000-04:002009-03-15T20:55:00.000-04:00Again, great stuff. I was thinking I'd have to wa...Again, great stuff. I was thinking I'd have to wait until Wednesday for Pomeroy's log5 to show up on BP... now I can get a head start.rolubhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05645203437505060534noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-89756176832399154582009-03-15T19:35:00.000-04:002009-03-15T19:35:00.000-04:00How did you do this?I'm awesome.In all seriousness...<I>How did you do this?</I><BR/><BR/>I'm awesome.<BR/><BR/>In all seriousness, it was just setting up really long Excel formulas and knowing the log5 formula and how conditional probability works.am19psuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18441351103470970374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-16250767243571424992009-03-15T19:30:00.000-04:002009-03-15T19:30:00.000-04:00How did you do this?How did you do this?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-50271750755703716692009-03-15T19:20:00.000-04:002009-03-15T19:20:00.000-04:00Awesome stuff here...interesting things:WVU has th...Awesome stuff here...interesting things:<BR/><BR/>WVU has the 2nd best chance to get to the F4 and win in their region as a 6 seed. This obviously isnt' surprising to anyone who checks Pomeroy.<BR/><BR/>Memphis being a heavy favorite in its region -- again not surprising.<BR/><BR/>Gonzaga's odds being somewhat close to UNC's.<BR/><BR/>The East is Pitt, Duke, and UCLA. And with Duke's history and UCLA's seed, I don't foresee many people picking anyone other than Pitt to win that region.Black n Goldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09737847526514215665noreply@blogger.com