Record Update - 1 Mar 2009

Wow. The magnitude of this week's suck was greater than last week's success. New graph below.

Sunday 3/1

Yes, March 1st. Not February 29th.

I'm not sure I've had a 4-6 day that made me grumpier than yesterday. That easily could have been an 8-2 day. End of game fouls were particularly frustrating.

12p Louisville -8.5 -113 2x
2p Rutgers +3 +103 2x
4p Illinois -1 -105 2x
Passes: Mizz, Duq

Mizzou was the biggest pass. I feel like I should be starting to fade Kansas, but couldn't pull the trigger today. I'd actually rather see KU cover today, so that Mizzou is set up better against OU next week.

Leans 3/1

Today was terrible. I really don't understand the enormous variance in college buckets.

It's funny to me how much more WVU is favored over USF in Tampa than either GTown or Marquette was favored.

Let's see if I can convert PST to EST a little bit better tonight.

12p L'ville -8.5 vs. Marq
2p Mizz +4.5 @ KU
2p Rutg +2 vs. Provo
330p Duq -1 vs. URI
10p Ore -2 vs. Ore St
4p Ill -1 vs. Sparty

Note: Again, for whatever reason, they put Ill/Sparty at the end of the card.

That's a bit more chalk than I like. Nothing really stands out as a must play tomorrow.

Saturday 2/28

A couple of things here before I get into the picks:

• I edited last night's post. VoTech and the Mormons were the only leans I added this morning. Everything else about the leans is the same. Well, almost. Apparently, I have a difficult time going from PST to EST when inebriated. There were some major time errors on the post. I've fixed them this morning
• My fiancee requested that I act like a real, honest-to-goodness boyfriend today. Rather than telling her to go make me a sammich, I relented and have non-degenerate things to do today. Why do you care? I'll only be putting picks up twice today, once in the morning and the other around 6p.

Earlies (12p-559p)
12p Cleveland State +7 -108 2x
2p Virginia +7 -102 2x
330p Virginia Tech +5.5 -111 2x
330p Texas Tech +9 -119 2x
4p Purdue -10 -102 2x
4p Kentucky -4.5 +101 2x
5p Washington State +1 +104 3x
Passes: GTown, Depaul, ND

Nightcaps (6p-12a)
730p San Diego +9.5 -108 2x
830p Seton Hall +10 +102 2x
830p TCU +4 -110 2x
Passes: Okie St, Cal, Vandy

Be careful. The Cougs/Devils game is at the end of the card today, for whatever reason. I almost missed it.

I'm not particularly excited about these late games. I'm just hoping to turn a small profit today.

Good luck tonight.

Leans 2/28

Going down the line at Pinny. These are first glance looks for tomorrow before I hit the sack. Which also means I am slightly less than sober while looking at them.

12p Gtown +6 @ Nova
12p Depaul -1 vs. Johns
2p ND +11 @ UConn
12p Cleve St +7 @ Butler
2p UVa +7 vs. Wake
330p VT +5.5 vs. Duke
4p Pur -10 vs. tOSU
4p UK -4.5 vs. LSU
5p BYU -6 vs. Utah
6p Ok St -2 vs. Texas
730p USD +9.5 vs. Zags
830p Hall +10 vs. Pitt
830p TCU +4.5 vs. SDSU
9p Cal +2.5 vs. UCLA
9p Vandy -1 vs. So Car
5p Wazzu +1 vs. Rizo St

Friday 2/27

Yeah, Niagara isn't happening. Be back tomorrow with the Saturday card.

Leans 2/27

I'm hesitant to even think about putting a Metro Atlantic team here. However, most people remember the Siena Saints winning a first round game last year, and if you've been reading different bracket projections over the last few weeks, there is weak support for Siena as an at large team. Taking those grains of salt, I lean toward

7p Niagara -2.5 vs. Siena

I have no idea whether the Purple Eagle will be anti-public and I put the probability of actually playing the game under 30%, but I just wanted to get it out there.

Other than that, nothing but a bunch of Metro Atlantic teams you've never heard of or Ivy League games that I know nothing about.

Thursday 2/26

Jonny wrote:

I'm hesitant to make this a 5 only because I think Memphis is better than people think.

I forget this sometimes. When I put my leans list together, I am basing it off my perception of the public perception of teams, not necessarily the actual public perception. I think it is highly likely that I hold Memphis in higher esteem than the average square.

7p St. Josephs +3.5 +100 2x
9p UAB +4.5 -111 2x
9p Washington State -3 +106 2x

Depending on your view point, the line move either makes Wazzu completely unplayable or more appealing. I'm obviously of the latter persuasion.

Good luck tonight.

Leans 2/26

Running a little late today...

7p Joes +4 vs. X
9p UAB +4.5 vs. Mem
9p Mich +2.5 vs. Pur
9p Wazzu -1.5 vs. Rizo St

Hopefully, variance turns back around tonight.

Wednesday 2/25

I can't believe the ugliness of this card. It is just straight awful. Who am I going to bet on? Ball State? Towson? Marshall? Marquette against UConn? I am probably writing off Depaul and Georgia too quickly, but neither line really jumped at me last night or this morning, so I can pass them without losing sleep.

7p Rhode Island -6 -104 3x
1030p Colorado +5 +104 2x

Wagerline data isn't really supportive of playing the Rams, but you can't tell me that this line was set with anything in mind other than getting Dayton action, with the Flyers at 23-4 and having beaten Xavier two weeks ago, Billiken loss notwithstanding. It's not like the public knows that 20-8 URI is 25 spots higher in the Pomeroy rankings.

Good luck tonight with whatever garbage you play.

Leans 2/25

If you want a really fun way to lose money on golf, check out ML's and TheSaw's picks for the Match Play Championship. Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Yesterday, I had greater than 50% of the card on my leans list. This morning, I think I have less than 5%.

7p URI -6 vs. Dayton
9p UMd +5.5 vs. Duke
1030p Colo +5.5 vs. Ok St

The Rams are a likely 3x play at that number.

Finally, I'd like to thank Missouri State University for getting outscored by 17 in the second half last night.

From ShamNE at RMMB last night:

Fouling with 4 seconds left down 5, really?

I'm glad I went to bed early last night. Missouri State Bears, your excellence in suck knows no bounds.

Tuesday 2/24

Well, this sucks. I was really hoping to pass everything but Mizz St tonight. When I got home I started looking at consensus numbers and Iowa St, the Johnnies, and Provo were all ridiculously anti-public, as well. I guess I'll learn my lesson when I go 1-3.

7p Providence +8.5 +105 2x
730p St. John's +4.5 -110 2x
8p Missouri State +6 +107 3x
9p Iowa State +2.5 -107 2x
Pass: SDSU

The Bears were a 3x play based on the amount I vomited in my mouth as I made the wager. Good luck tonight.

Leans 2/24

This is an odd set of leans. I've got over 50% of the card on my list, but none of them are all that strong and I could easily pass every one of them.

7p Provo +8 vs. Pitt
730p Johns +5 vs. Cuse
8p Mizz St +6 vs. Crate
8p Ill St -6.5 vs. N Iowa
9p Iowa St +2.5 vs. Baylor
9p BC -2.5 vs. FSU
930p SDSU -1 vs. BYU

Hopefully, things become clearer tonight.

Monday 2/23

The Kansas line opened at 4 but looks like it will close at 2. I think Kansas is the right side, but I'm not here to handicap games, and the Jayhawks are only slightly anti-public.

7p Georgetown +2 -107 2x
Pass: Kansas

Good luck tonight.

Leans 2/23

I'm stealing this idea from Vegas Watch. The chart below tracks my progress through the season. I generally don't believe in karma or anything like that, and I don't think I was on tilt after those two games (especially Houston, since I didn't have anything on it), but the down trends are striking.



Leans for tonight:

7p Georgetown +1.5 vs. Louisville
9p Kansas @ Oklahoma

They haven't released a line on the KU/OU game yet, probably because Griffin's status is uncertain. I suspect it will be something like OU -2.