Record Update - 31 May 2009

Good lord, I suck. Had it not been for the Saturday abomination, I would have been up for the week, but if my aunt had balls she'd be uncle.



Correction: The Washington Nationals suck. Twenty-five units is a significant amount of money to lose on one team.



On the bright side, totals seem to be coming around, at least with the usual SSS caveats.

Sunday 5/31

Well, this might be it. Down to the last ten units. I'd love to look at Harrah's or an offshore book's financials to see if contrarian betting has been a bad strategy for the last nine months (i.e. if sportsbook profits are down) or if I have just been applying it improperly. It's probably been a little of both.

Plays
1240p Cleveland +124 2x
110p Florida +123 2x
135p Washington +128 2x
205p CIN/MIL u8 +110 2x
305p Oakland +147 2x

And of course, I'm on the usual suspects. When these guys all lose, I'll be done before June 1. Awesome.

Streak for the Cash
Passing the Angels
Current Streak: 6

I could potentially be on the Angels this afternoon, but I'd rather wait and see how the price changes throughout the day.

Saturday 5/30

Football season can't get here soon enough. Boredom has become extremely common on Saturdays.

Plays
705p Washington +268 2x
705p Cleveland +162 2x
705p Baltimore +119 2x
805p Oakland +142 2x
905p San Francisco +144 2x

I don't know how I missed the opportunity to bet on Jeremy Guthrie when I went through the leans earlier.

Streak for the Cash
10p Alabama vs. Arizona State
Current Streak: 6

Detroit is a possibility at -148, but I'd like to see what 5Dimes posts for the WCWS game. If that's all that's available, I'll probably pass.

Leans 5/30

This is almost certainly going to be my list of plays tonight.

Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +240 @ PHL (Hamels)
705p CLE (Carmona) +157 vs. NYY (Sabathia)
805p OAK (Anderson) +138 @ TEX (McCarthy)
905p SF (Zito) +140 vs. STL (Carpenter)

Streak for the Cash
230p Alabama vs. Arizona
Current Streak: 5

As long as The Streakmaster keeps setting lines that have one side greater than 66% in the WCWS, I'll keep playing them.

Friday 5/29

Still looking for feedback here, even if it is just to tell me I'm retarded.

Plays
505p Oakland (Gm1) +100 2x
705p Washington +162 2x
705p Baltimore -111 2x
705p Cleveland -117 2x
805p Oakland (Gm2) +148 2x
940p ATL/ARZ o9 -124 2x
1005p Seattle +169 2x

I hope this goes better than the last time I played so many games on a Friday night.

Leans
Coming later...

Streak for the Cash
7p Washington vs. Arizona State
950p Michigan/Florida u7.5 runs
Current Streak: 4

Screw it. The half point calculator is probably retarded, but 5Dimes is offering the total on UF/scUM at 4.5. The Streakmaster has it pegged at 7.5. I don't have the exact numbers, but that has to be better than -208, right? I'm playing Washington because my streak is low and it has to be over before the late game starts.

Leans 5/29

I'm not sure I could live with myself if I woke up everyday and saw a flipping koala on my side. Fortunately, Jonny doesn't have to figure that out for himself.

Leans
505p OAK (Outman) +105 @ TEX (Hunter) - Game 1
705p WAS (Detweiler) +154 @ PHL (Happ)
705p BAL (Bergsen) -121 vs. DET (Willis)
705p CLE (Lee) -122 vs. NYY (Pettitte)
805p OAK (Gonzalez) +142 @ TEX (Feldman) - Game 2
940p ARZ (Garland) +118 vs. ATL (Jurrjens)
1005p SEA (Vargas) +170 @ LAA (Lackey)
1015p SF (Cain) -122 vs. STL (Pineiro)

I doubt I play most of those, but the fact that I wrote that many down would indicate I need to buy some Pepcid on the way home tonight.

Streak for the Cash
904a S. Stricker over S. Cink (Crowne Plaza Invitational - Front 9)
Current Streak: 2

There is not even a question on Stricker. He is favored in the 3-ball matchup with Cink and Immelman at The Greek.

Azarenka is over -200 for the first tennis match. Hopefully, it gets pushed back like they have been all week. If I can't play tennis, I'll take Vijay in the afternoon.

The soccer and baseball games are coinflips in the afternoon; Clermont win or draw, I guess, if I am forced into something at a low streak.

Thursday 5/28 - PM

That first attempt at publishing was effective.

Plays
705p Baltimore -129 2x

Nothing I love more than laying chalk with a worse team.

Streak for the Cash
705p Balitmore vs. Detroit
Current Streak: 1

Thursday 5/28 - AM

Keeping this short because I want more feedback on the football post.

Plays
110p Minnesota +110 2x

Leans
705p BAL (Hernandez) -108 vs. DET (Galarraga)

Streak for the Cash
1030a Roddick/Minar u38.5 points
330p Missouri vs. Arizona State
Current Streak: 0

Missouri in the afternoon softball game, too.

Wednesday 5/27 - PM

Today was my first day running in about two weeks because of some knee problems. Imagine how much fun that was in 80 degree heat and humidity, while watching Around the Horn and keeping track of the Bottom Line, as Baltimore and Colorado do everything in their power to flip me over.

Plays
705p Florida +194 2x
710p Washington +194 2x
940p SD/ARZ o9 -113 2x

I really should have put Washington in this morning. I wasn't expecting them to get steamed almost 50 cents at Pinny.

Leans
110p MIN (Swarzak) +108 vs. BOS (Beckett)

Only five games total and one early tomorrow. I guess I could have figured this out sooner.

Streak for the Cash
705p Cincinnati vs. Houston
Current Streak: 1

It looks like both late night picks are tossups. Good thing I won't be around to worry about it.

Wednesday 5/27 - AM

Wow, a decent night back. I'm amazed.

Plays
135p Baltimore +153 2x
220p Pittsburgh +159 2x
310p Colorado -118 2x
310p COL/LAD u9.5 -111 2x

I'm not playing Matchbook's under at the current price. TheFiancee will have to put it in while I'm at work and I'll update the juice when I get home.

Leans
705p FLA (Badenhop) +174 @ PHL (Myers)
710p WAS (Zimmermann) +234 @ NYM (Santana)
1005p CHW (Floyd) +179 @ LAA (Weaver)

I'm actually looking forward to betting on some teams with decent odds. It seemed like before I took the week off, my cards were dominated by teams that were between -125 and +125.

Streak for the Cash
9a N. Petrova over M. Sharapova
1130a Nadal/Whatever u25.5 points
310p Colorado vs. Dodgers
Current Streak: 0

If this is over in time, I'll jump right to the Nadal under, followed by either Parra or Ubaldo. Assuming I'm betting on teams that have value from their true line (not necessarily a good assumption), they're probably about equal.

Tuesday 5/26

Plays
705p Cleveland +118 2x
705p Baltimore +111 2x
710p Washington +130 2x
805p Pittsburgh +141 2x
840p Colorado -146 2x
940p SD/ARZ o9 -104 2x
1005p White Sox +175 2x

Streak for the Cash
730p Pittburgh vs. Carolina
Current Streak: 1

Leans 5/26

I really enjoyed the last week without gambling on baseball. I'm just really not all that into this. I only have a paltry 14x left in my bankroll, so once that's gone, I'll probably sit out until football season. In any case, I'm back on the horse today.

Leans
705p CLE (Pavano) +115 vs. TB (Garza)
805p PIT (Snell) +148 @ CHC (Marshall)
805p TEX (Millwood) +11 vs. NYY (Chamberlain)
810p MIN (Blackburn) +105 vs. BOS (Lester)
810p DET (Jackson) +145 @ KC (Greinke)
840p COL (Cook) -150 vs. LAD (Milton)
1005p OAK (Braden) -138 vs. SEA (Washburn)

Washington, Florida and Baltimore should all be on this list if I was going by straight consensus numbers. Why should I be fading Hernandez, Blanton, and a team that has been swept in the their last two series? I can somewhat see the case for the Nats, only because perception (and reality) is that Mets >> Nats, but the other two don't make a whole lot of sense to me.

Streak for the Cash
1000a BK Hacken vs. Other Swedish Soccer Team
Current Streak: 0

The 830a total between S. Williams and K. Zakopalova (!) is set at 19 with the juice slightly favoring u19 (-111/-105). I have no idea how much a half point is worth in tennis, but I imagine it is more than enough to flip the proper play to o18.5. Either way, I'm passing.

I've actually heard of Rochus, so I was somewhat surprised that the public is on Santoro at a 85/15 clip. If the line is right, Santoro has a JA 55.2% chance of winning. I guess that's good enough.

For this afternoon, it looks like BK Hacken is the play at 57% using 5Dimes' lines, but since Pinny has the game offline, I'm concerned there is injury news or something. Hopefully someone will post their numbers this afternoon.

Good luck.

Where The Value Lies - Week 8

I'm going to sit out one more day. I don't feel like being stressed out on Memorial Day. These differences include games through Sunday May 24.

Overrated
1. Brewers +3.3
2. Phillies +2.9
2. Yankees +2.9
4. Rangers +2.4
5. Dodgers +2.2

Underrated
1. Indians -6.3
2. Nationals -6.1
3. Rockies -2.9
4. Mets -2.7
5. Athletics -2.1

The Indians and Nationals adjusted records are comical. The Indians have a third order record over .500 and the Nats should be playing 43% ball. I mean, at some point they have to regress to the mean, right? The only other surprising team to me is the Mets ending up on the underrated list. Even though they are technically underrated, I doubt we will get to play them, just because they are the Mets.