2009 CFB Preview: SEC

The SEC was easily the hardest conference to judge. Florida is the clear favorite, but by how much is up for debate. Also, juggling the three decent teams in the West appears to be something the books haven't fully straightened out either.

As Moneyline showed, Florida is an overwhelming favorite, but if the lines are any indication, they should be. Also interesting is the strange ordering between Lucky's and Harrah's with SEC West trio. Harrah's looks like they hold my opinion of Ole Miss, while Lucky's apparently has a Jevan Snead hard on.

Florida and LSU posed the largest problems in this analysis. Florida is a 16 point favorite in the WLOCTP in Vegas, while online they are only 13.5 online. Meanwhile, LSU is a 3.5 point dog in road games at Alabama and Ole Miss at Sportsbook, but the Nugget has both games as 6 point lines. Those three teams are likely pretty close, so I can see arguments for any order at this point.

With above analysis, Alabama is probably a bit too high for their expected wins, especially since they have to play VoTech in Game 1. Otherwise, I see no problems with these.

I still think Ole Miss is overrated. They lose entirely too much on both sides of the ball, even though they finished strongly last year. I don't think they are going to fall back to 5-7 or something like that, but I'll be surprised if they match the 10-3 record Eli put up back in 2003, too.


Eric said...

You got your image links all mixed up. The text is definitely about the SEC, but the tables are a bit confusing...

am19psu said...

To quote Bill Simmons, the lesson as always, I'm an idiot.