2009 CFB Preview: Big Ten

The books agree with the common perception that the Big Ten is a two horse race this year, with Ohio State and Penn State battling for the automatic BCS bid. I was slightly surprised by some of the other futures odds though. Illinois and Wisconsin, two teams that supposedly underachieved last year, are both marked as contenders for the third place spot in the Big Ten. Illinois doesn't surprise me as much, because they suffered from unlucky turnover problems. I readily admit though that I thought Wisconsin was garbage coming into the year. That's why I'm doing these posts.

The spreads agree much more closely with the futures in the Big Ten than any of the other conferences covered so far. The books seem to think that things will be academic this year.

As good as I felt about the Georgia Tech future in the ACC preview, I feel the opposite about Sparty. When I was in Vegas, I had the impression they were the clear cut #3 team in the conference. I like Dantonio as a coach and he has pulled in good recruiting classes. Unfortunately, the numbers aren't supporting my assumptions.

It's somewhat surprising that tOSU has a higher win expectancy than PSU when tOSU has to play USC in Game 2. The schedules are similar otherwise with the Bucks missing Sparty and Northwestern, while PSU has Wisky and Purdue rotating off.


Anonymous said...

When I was running through the conference games, I noticed that Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois were all pretty good in terms of net yards last season. At least better than I expected and comparable with OSU. Wisconsin and Iowa, though, have some pretty big question marks with missing starters on the Offensive and Defensive lines, which always scares me.