Let's see who is outperforming and underperforming their third order records cumulatively through mid-May. These records are through Saturday May 16th.
Overrated
1. Cubs +3.3
1. Red Sox +3.3
3. Giants +2.5
4. Rangers +2.3
5. Brewers +2.0
5. Phillies +2.0
Underrated
1. Indians -5.6
2. Nationals -4.4
3. Pirates -3.1
4. DBacks -3.1
5. Rockies -3.0
What I find most interesting is the smooth distribution of the data from Tampa Bay at -1.5 all the way through the Cubs/Sox at +3.3 and then a large discontinuity at the jump to the Rockies -3.0 . On one hand, this is at least affirmation that I am betting on teams that are due to regress back to the mean. That should in turn mean that they are getting slightly better lines than they deserve and I am getting value in my bets. On the other, waiting for the value to be realized is costing me a lot of money. I might be cleaned out before the Nats start winning at a 43% clip.
Showing posts with label mlb week 7. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mlb week 7. Show all posts
Monday 5/18 - AM
,
Labels:
leans,
mlb week 7,
plays
There are two more posts scheduled to go up today while I'm at work, so I'll keep this one short.
Plays
105p White Sox +155 2x
This is a straight Richmond fade. The Yankees knocked him around in his last start, but otherwise has been significantly outpitching projections.
Leans
705p WAS (Detweiler) -114 vs. PIT (Ohlendorf)
705p OAK (Gallagher) +134 @ TB (Niemann)
705p MIN (Perkins) +152 @ NYY (Pettitte)
Seattle and Colorado are OTB this morning, but their consensus numbers are interesting.
Streak for the Cash
3p Sunderland (win or draw) @ Portsmouth (EPL)
Current Streak: 5
I was expecting to pass everything this afternoon with my streak at 5, but Sunderland is about 60% to win or draw after adjusting for juice.
Plays
105p White Sox +155 2x
This is a straight Richmond fade. The Yankees knocked him around in his last start, but otherwise has been significantly outpitching projections.
Leans
705p WAS (Detweiler) -114 vs. PIT (Ohlendorf)
705p OAK (Gallagher) +134 @ TB (Niemann)
705p MIN (Perkins) +152 @ NYY (Pettitte)
Seattle and Colorado are OTB this morning, but their consensus numbers are interesting.
Streak for the Cash
3p Sunderland (win or draw) @ Portsmouth (EPL)
Current Streak: 5
I was expecting to pass everything this afternoon with my streak at 5, but Sunderland is about 60% to win or draw after adjusting for juice.
Record Update - 17 May 2009
,
Labels:
in review,
leans,
mlb week 6,
mlb week 7
I was actually having a good week until Friday and Saturday. A combined 6-15-1 was not a good way to end the week.
Leans
105p CHW (Richard) +135 @ TOR (Richmond)
705p WAS (Detweiler) -110 vs. PIT (Ohlendorf)
705p OAK (Gallagher) +134 @ TB (Niemann)
815p MIL (Looper) +122 @ STL (Lohse)
1010p LAD (Wolf) -136 vs. NYM (Redding)
Leans
105p CHW (Richard) +135 @ TOR (Richmond)
705p WAS (Detweiler) -110 vs. PIT (Ohlendorf)
705p OAK (Gallagher) +134 @ TB (Niemann)
815p MIL (Looper) +122 @ STL (Lohse)
1010p LAD (Wolf) -136 vs. NYM (Redding)
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