Let's see who is outperforming and underperforming their third order records cumulatively through mid-May. These records are through Saturday May 16th.
Overrated
1. Cubs +3.3
1. Red Sox +3.3
3. Giants +2.5
4. Rangers +2.3
5. Brewers +2.0
5. Phillies +2.0
Underrated
1. Indians -5.6
2. Nationals -4.4
3. Pirates -3.1
4. DBacks -3.1
5. Rockies -3.0
What I find most interesting is the smooth distribution of the data from Tampa Bay at -1.5 all the way through the Cubs/Sox at +3.3 and then a large discontinuity at the jump to the Rockies -3.0 . On one hand, this is at least affirmation that I am betting on teams that are due to regress back to the mean. That should in turn mean that they are getting slightly better lines than they deserve and I am getting value in my bets. On the other, waiting for the value to be realized is costing me a lot of money. I might be cleaned out before the Nats start winning at a 43% clip.
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