Notre Dame is going to be a double digit favorite in a lot of games, but they still have to go to Ann Arbor and Pitt while they travel to USC. Plus Sparty and the Trees won't be pushovers.
I mean, really, Joe? Ten wins? They only get there 11% of the time in the best case scenario. Notre Dame might be the only team with an integer total that has value. At 5Dimes, under 9 is sitting at -130. I'm showing them with eight or less 70% of the time in the best case scenario. I re-ran the Monte Carlo simulation a few times to make sure that the numbers weren't wrong, and they aren't. Notre Dame is an eight win team this year.
1 comments:
those results look too low with those lines- if you just multiply all your median probabilities (12-0) you get 1.4%. And going 11-1 with a loss to USC is 3.6%. I think it's closer to 30% for 10+ wins in the median case
Post a Comment