2009 CFB Preview: Notre Dame

I hadn't planned on doing this quite yet, but Joe Schad thinks Notre Dame is going to be a ten win team this year. Because I am a classy guy, I offered a 3-to-2 on that bet over Twitter. Obviously he didn't respond. (UPDATE: He did.)

Notre Dame is going to be a double digit favorite in a lot of games, but they still have to go to Ann Arbor and Pitt while they travel to USC. Plus Sparty and the Trees won't be pushovers.

I mean, really, Joe? Ten wins? They only get there 11% of the time in the best case scenario. Notre Dame might be the only team with an integer total that has value. At 5Dimes, under 9 is sitting at -130. I'm showing them with eight or less 70% of the time in the best case scenario. I re-ran the Monte Carlo simulation a few times to make sure that the numbers weren't wrong, and they aren't. Notre Dame is an eight win team this year.


Anonymous said...

those results look too low with those lines- if you just multiply all your median probabilities (12-0) you get 1.4%. And going 11-1 with a loss to USC is 3.6%. I think it's closer to 30% for 10+ wins in the median case